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Thread: Disease and pandemics thread (because it's science)

  1. #511
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    Among other news about the long delay before getting a COVID-19 vaccine, pictures of dogs with antivirus face masks. Riding in a baby buggy.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...ay/ar-BB10gHMO
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  2. #512
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    The story just gets stranger.
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/scie...market-chinese

    Coronavirus did not originate in Wuhan seafood market, Chinese scientists say
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  3. #513
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    WHO total and new cases in last 24 hours

    Globally: 78,811 confirmed (1,017 new)

    China: 77,042 confirmed (650 new), 2,445 deaths (97 new)

    Outside of China: 1,769 confirmed (367 new), 28 countries, 17 deaths (6 new)
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  4. #514
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    Aaaaaand now we have fashion designer masks to wear in the next pandemic. No, seriously, click the link. Man, oh, man.

    https://slate.com/technology/2020/02...lness-now.html
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  5. #515
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    This is not new. Fashion masks have been around for years in East Asia.

    Grant Hutchison

  6. #516
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    WHO total and new cases in last 24 hours

    Globally: 78,811 confirmed (1,017 new)

    China: 77,042 confirmed (650 new), 2,445 deaths (97 new)

    Outside of China: 1,769 confirmed (367 new), 28 countries, 17 deaths (6 new)
    Latest figures from John Hopkins Uni for comparison. Total Confirmed: 79,360, Total Deaths: 2,619, Total Recovered: 24,963 and the ratio of Recovered/Confirmed is 31.46%.

  7. #517
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    That's an 11% death rate among resolved cases, in an extremely contagious virus that people can catch even when they know it is at large and their lives are in danger. Quite sobering, I hope the other countries where it is taking root are understanding the need for extreme measures. What is the main thing that China has done to curtail the spread? It seems to be working there, but not elsewhere.

  8. #518
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    So, to compare the numbers, in China the rate of deaths per confirmed cases is about 0.0330; outside China, 0.0096. And for the flu in the US, it's 0.0006.
    Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by ignorance or stupidity.
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  9. #519
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim View Post
    So, to compare the numbers, in China the rate of deaths per confirmed cases is about 0.0330; outside China, 0.0096. And for the flu in the US, it's 0.0006.
    Oh, that is not good at all.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  10. #520
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    Maybe in a month we will know more. I think WHO said it was 20 times more deadly than the flu. I have no idea if it spreads as much as the flu. I have no idea if quarantine really helps in the long run. I guess if it slows down and a cure is found that is good, but shutting down everything has major repercussions of their own.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  11. #521
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Oh, that is not good at all.
    Or: It's a great deal better than it could be.

    Grant Hutchison

  12. #522
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim View Post
    So, to compare the numbers, in China the rate of deaths per confirmed cases is about 0.0330; outside China, 0.0096. And for the flu in the US, it's 0.0006.
    Yes, for the China CFR, but I'm seeing a little higher number from today's Worldometer data that shows a CFR at ~1.5% outside China, though it drops to ~1% if the Iran data is removed. Iran has a CFR of ~20% for some odd reason. Italy jumped to ~ 3%.
    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

  13. #523
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim View Post
    So, to compare the numbers, in China the rate of deaths per confirmed cases is about 0.0330; outside China, 0.0096. And for the flu in the US, it's 0.0006.
    While deaths per confirmed cases is great, what I would want to know is the new confirmed cases per x days, whatever CDC reports.
    Last edited by bknight; 2020-Feb-24 at 07:50 PM. Reason: Added new

  14. #524
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken G View Post
    That's an 11% death rate among resolved cases, in an extremely contagious virus that people can catch even when they know it is at large and their lives are in danger. Quite sobering, I hope the other countries where it is taking root are understanding the need for extreme measures. What is the main thing that China has done to curtail the spread? It seems to be working there, but not elsewhere.
    Yes I know of (informed) companies who are bracing for 40% infection and 10% death rates. I am most worried, being in the UK, that Italy has a hot spot and is hoping to contain it with the tone of officialdom turning more pessimistic. The balance between actual and self induced close down is now poised day by day.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  15. #525
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    WHO

    Globally: 79,331 confirmed (715 new)

    China: 77,262 confirmed (415 new) 2,595 deaths (150 new)

    Outside of China: 2,069 confirmed (300 new) 29 countries (1 new) 23 deaths (6 new)

    Fatality rate outside China: 0.01111648 (over 1.1%, going up)
    Fatality rate inside China: 0.033587 (about 3.4%)


    Link to WHO reports: https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...ation-reports/

    Link to CDC information: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html
    Last edited by Roger E. Moore; 2020-Feb-25 at 01:20 AM.
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  16. #526
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    There is one thing that puzzles me, and I wonder if anyone has any insights. It seems weird that the number of new cases in China is leveling off or even slowing day by day. Intuitively, it should be increasing even faster, since the total number of cases is higher. I suppose it's a result of the quarantines and things like that?
    As above, so below

  17. #527
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I've added a few more.

    18 12.0%
    19 13.5%
    20 12.3%

    So it is still rising, and has been pretty stable for a few days at around 12 or 13%. So it seems it is neither peaking nor exploding.
    And some more. There was the big jump in the 24th report that had to do with how cases were counted, but otherwise than that the increase in deaths seems to be decreasing generally. The number of deaths seems to be pretty steady from day to day, so as the cumulative number of cases grows, the rate of new deaths decreases. So it's a bit puzzling that having more people infected doesn't seem to drive the death rate up. More people are infected, but the same number die each day.

    21 12.0%
    22 11.9%
    23 9.5%
    24 22.8%
    25 8.9%
    26 8.1%
    27 9.3%
    28 6.3%
    29 5.5%
    30 7.2%
    31 6.0%
    32 5.5%
    33 5.0%
    34 4.3%
    35 6.3%
    As above, so below

  18. #528
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    today , UK, they are talking about visitors from Italy self isolating for fourteen days.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  19. #529
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    Sorry, it seems like the formatting got messed up in my list. The first number is the report number, so it should be a number like 30 followed by a space and then a percentage.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    As above, so below

  20. #530
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    There is one thing that puzzles me, and I wonder if anyone has any insights. It seems weird that the number of new cases in China is leveling off or even slowing day by day. Intuitively, it should be increasing even faster, since the total number of cases is higher. I suppose it's a result of the quarantines and things like that?
    Yes, this is always how outbreaks end. Control measures drive R0 lower than 1. The total cases count still rises (like deaths, that total can never fall), but the number of active cases (those neither dead nor recovered) falls, as each infected person passes the disease on to an average of less than one other person. And that's what we're seeing in China. (Figures from China are still dominating world figures.)

    Grant Hutchison

  21. #531
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    And some more. There was the big jump in the 24th report that had to do with how cases were counted, but otherwise than that the increase in deaths seems to be decreasing generally. The number of deaths seems to be pretty steady from day to day, so as the cumulative number of cases grows, the rate of new deaths decreases. So it's a bit puzzling that having more people infected doesn't seem to drive the death rate up. More people are infected, but the same number die each day.
    The number of active cases was levelling off about 10-14 days ago, although that was obscured by the way the Chinese changed the way they counted cases. The death rate should reflect the active cases some time ago, determined by the average time from identification to death. It doesn't reflect the total case count, which now contains many people who are already recovered, or already dead. The other thing, this early in an epidemic, is that's there's a practice effect--clinicians getting better at picking out those in danger of death and intervening early, and more management options have been tested, so best treatment is clearer. Thus the proportion of active cases ending in death is pushed down. And finally there's a resource effect--it takes time to put resources in place. As the number of active cases starts to level off and then fall, and the resources rise, the mismatch between resources and dangerously ill cases is reduced, and again the death rate per active case is driven down.
    I suspect all this is going on in China at present, and China's figures dominate world figures.

    Grant Hutchison

  22. #532
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    Is it likely the out-of-China death rate seems to go up because we are missing confirmed cases from Italy and Iran?
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  23. #533
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Is it likely the out-of-China death rate seems to go up because we are missing confirmed cases from Italy and Iran?
    Personally I think the rates of death in China and Iran are worse because the lungs are worse due to air pollution.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  24. #534
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Is it likely the out-of-China death rate seems to go up because we are missing confirmed cases from Italy and Iran?
    Probably. I was listening to a discussion of the virus on the radio and it was mentioned that we really don't have a definitive test for it yet. There seem to be almost as many tests as organizations/countries doing the testing; some are likely more/less accurate than others. Add to that not everyone who should be tested is being tested; not enough test kits so they go by symptoms.
    Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by ignorance or stupidity.
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    You know, the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common. They don’t alter their views to fit the facts. They alter the facts to fit their views.
    Doctor Who

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  25. #535
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim View Post
    Probably. I was listening to a discussion of the virus on the radio and it was mentioned that we really don't have a definitive test for it yet. There seem to be almost as many tests as organizations/countries doing the testing; some are likely more/less accurate than others. Add to that not everyone who should be tested is being tested; not enough test kits so they go by symptoms.
    I think if you're screening people travelling from at-risk regions, and you're not having any surprise outbreaks, then you're capturing a true reflection of the case numbers. But as soon as you're caught on the hop trying to contain an established outbreak, then you're behind with your case count.

    Grant Hutchison

  26. #536
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    And finally there's a resource effect--it takes time to put resources in place. As the number of active cases starts to level off and then fall, and the resources rise, the mismatch between resources and dangerously ill cases is reduced, and again the death rate per active case is driven down.
    So I'm curious how the CFR will begin to look as the no. of cases drops, and they just broke below the 1% level (0.9%) for percent of new cases, yet the no. of deaths will drop less due to the time lag between case and death.

    I'm a little surprised that there is still strong direction, from attached, toward a CFR value of between 3.5% and 4%. [The lower line is the 2-day lag, with 2 day increments above, respectively.]

    CFR Lags Feb 25.jpg

    Would I be right to assume we should expect the CFR lines start to turn upward as the rate of new cases drops faster than the rate of new deaths due to a time lag?

    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison
    I suspect all this is going on in China at present, and China's figures dominate world figures.
    I'm tracking non-China and non-Iran numbers. The no. of cases jumped 12% and the no. of deaths 16.7%, though the CFR is 1%.
    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

  27. #537
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    Personally I think the rates of death in China and Iran are worse because the lungs are worse due to air pollution.
    China’s smog city: What Wuhan looks like with 20 times the U.S. dust limit

    https://grist.org/cities/chinas-smog...-s-dust-limit/

    Iran Air Pollution Claims 30,000 Lives Every Year
    https://financialtribune.com/article...ves-every-year
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  28. #538
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    The hotel in Tenerife that has been "quarantined" is going to be another Royal Princess. There's video of guests wandering the grounds wearing masks and (saints preserve us) gloves.
    The only thing more useless than a paper face-mask worn by someone who has never worn one before is a pair of rubber gloves worn by someone who hasn't worn them before. Touch a contaminated surface, touch your face - the gloves and mask are irrelevant, it's the behaviour that's the problem. And of course no-one will ever wash their hands while wearing gloves, whereas a few people might remember to wash their bare hands.

    Grant Hutchison

  29. #539
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    Will you get COVID-19? This writer thinks probably so, and not just now but in the future, too. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...accine/607000/ link fixed
    Last edited by Roger E. Moore; 2020-Feb-25 at 07:32 PM.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  30. #540
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Will you get COVID-19? This writer thinks probably so, and not just now but in the future, too. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...accine/607000/ link fixed
    Yeah. If there is a large pool of unreported mild disease then containment will fail, we're all at risk, and most of us will get mild disease. If there is no large pool of unreported mild disease, then current containment measures are justified and have a chance of being protective.

    What we don't want at this point is an assumption of a pool of mild unreported disease, the abandonment of containment measures, and then the Oops heard around the world.

    We live forward, but we understand backward.

    Grant Hutchison

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