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Thread: Disease and pandemics thread (because it's science)

  1. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    As fascinating as that subject is, why not start a thread on it?
    You are right. I only included it because people get all these ideas about controlling population, but all the ways to do this are monstrous, and all we are left with is nature to take its course through pandemics, war, and starvation.
    Maybe encouraging education does work. I hope so.
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    I was afraid of this as a possibility. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...3MykIjfwBgiq24
    Coronavirus may have originated in lab linked to China's biowarfare program
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I was afraid of this as a possibility. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...3MykIjfwBgiq24
    Coronavirus may have originated in lab linked to China's biowarfare program
    What is more likely:

    a) Unsupported claims that a lab which is (supposedly) dealing with deadly viruses for use as weapons releases a (possibly not too serious) form of flu, rather than a horrific disease that kills half the inhabitants of Wuhan

    b) We see another incident like several we have seen before, happening in the same sort of environment that we have seen before, with the same sort of results that we have seen before.

    I'll go with "that we have seen before" over unevidenced and implausible conspiracies any day.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    Yes, I think that's true. And then another thing I forgot: apparently, before agriculture, so among Paleolithic people, accidents were a very frequent cause of mortality, along with predation, starvation, and infections.

    ...and homicide. From some articles I’ve read, in some hunter-gatherer societies, close to 50% of the deaths among adult men were homicides.
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  5. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    You are right. I only included it because people get all these ideas about controlling population, but all the ways to do this are monstrous, and all we are left with is nature to take its course through pandemics, war, and starvation.
    Maybe encouraging education does work. I hope so.
    One thing that apparently does work is encouraging the education of adolescent girls, with the associated increase in their autonomy. They start having babies later, and have fewer. So do things like old age pensions. Of course, both are strongly deprecated by the same people, on ideological grounds. (Boco Haram, Taliban, FDLS, objectivists....)
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  6. #96
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    May I suggest we keep this thread strictly on disease and pandemics and discuss other topics like population growth and resources in either the newly created thread or in some yet to be created thread.
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  7. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I was afraid of this as a possibility. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...3MykIjfwBgiq24
    Coronavirus may have originated in lab linked to China's biowarfare program
    I would not consider the Washington Times as a reliable source of information.
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  8. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I was afraid of this as a possibility. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...3MykIjfwBgiq24
    Coronavirus may have originated in lab linked to China's biowarfare program
    An accidental release of anthrax spores occurred in Sverdlovsk (Ekaterinburg) USSR, 2 Apr 1979, killing at least 100 people. I do not believe the new coronavirus was a bioweapon, however. The given story is too plausible and matches the origins of simiar outbreaks.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    CNN reports a significant jump in stats for the coronavirus: 4,585 infected, 106 dead (all in China).
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  10. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    CNN reports a significant jump in stats for the coronavirus: 4,585 infected, 106 dead (all in China).
    This early in an outbreak, in such a large population centre, that's what one would expect, irrespective of whether this will eventually be contained or progress to a pandemic.

    Grant Hutchison

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    As time goes on, i hope this does not produce physical respiratory damage causing victims to fall prey to other breathing problems. I've had pneumonia a number of times and had short lived lung damage from it. Okay now tho.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    This early in an outbreak, in such a large population centre, that's what one would expect, irrespective of whether this will eventually be contained or progress to a pandemic.
    Thanks for the comment. One thing I also notice is that it seems that the number of people infected is increasing quite rapidly but the number of deaths is not increasing so much. I guess there are a number of possible reasons. It could be just that there are people who are sick that will die but haven't died yet. But it's also possible either that it's getting weaker or that more careful monitoring is uncovering more (not severe) cases, and that the virus was never as virulent as it was initially reported. It's possible that it had already spread and that it was the recording of a few deaths that prompted authorities to start monitoring it, so when they found the initial cases it seemed the death rate was higher than it really is.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    An accidental release of anthrax spores occurred in Sverdlovsk (Ekaterinburg) USSR, 2 Apr 1979, killing at least 100 people. I do not believe the new coronavirus was a bioweapon, however. The given story is too plausible and matches the origins of simiar outbreaks.
    I would suspect that it would be more of a case of a bacteria walking out on somebody's shoes. There are people at universities inventing new bacteria or viruses. Of course nature invents new viruses all the time too. I know that the procedures at these level 4 facilities are strict, but there are always little ways for incidental transmission can be carried out of a facility.
    The snake virus idea, just seemed like a planted idea.
    I would like to think that people are smart, but take hospitals for example, why is it that hospital are virtually the only place where there is not a self flushing or touchless flushing toilets. Why do hospitals have toilets that nebulize stool. Why aren't sinks touchless in hospitals. Bacteria travel all over a hospital by peoples feet. Why don't hospitals have touchless phones so that people don't have to touch phones when they are isolation precautions rooms.
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  14. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    An accidental release of anthrax spores occurred in Sverdlovsk (Ekaterinburg) USSR, 2 Apr 1979, killing at least 100 people. I do not believe the new coronavirus was a bioweapon, however. The given story is too plausible and matches the origins of simiar outbreaks.
    I would suspect that it would be more of a case of a bacteria walking out on somebody's shoes. There are people at universities inventing new bacteria or viruses. Of course nature invents new viruses all the time too. I know that the procedures at these level 4 facilities are strict, but there are always little ways for incidental transmission can be carried out of a facility.
    The snake virus idea, just seemed like a planted idea.
    I would like to think that people are smart, but take hospitals for example, why is it that hospital are virtually the only place where there is not a self flushing or touchless flushing toilets. Why do hospitals have toilets that nebulize stool. Why aren't sinks touchless in hospitals. Bacteria travel all over a hospital by peoples feet. Why don't hospitals have touchless phones so that people don't have to touch phones when they are isolation precautions rooms.
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    I don't really think that this wuhan bacteria is a bioweapon. If it is a weapon it is more like something somebody would make to take out a species, because it seems to be infecting everyone. It however isn't super lethal. So far it stays around killing one out of 40 people who get it. It is crazy that it is supposed to be infectious even before people are symptomatic and it is crazy that the incubation period can be so long. A bad combination. Jens is right, that if most people are getting pneumonia, they could have more long term effects that cannot be measured right now.
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  16. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    It is crazy that it is supposed to be infectious even before people are symptomatic and it is crazy that the incubation period can be so long. A bad combination. Jens is right, that if most people are getting pneumonia, they could have more long term effects that cannot be measured right now.
    Two points: one is that it is not strange for it to be infectious before people are symptomatic. Many of the symptoms of influenza have nothing to do with what the virus does, rather they are things that the body does in response to the infection (like fever and coughing for example). And you can be infected before the body mounts the immune response, so you can get the flu from somebody before they are symptomatic.

    And the other point is that you (accidentally) misquoted me. I didn't say anything about the long-term effects of pneumonia. It was somebody else.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    The snake virus idea, just seemed like a planted idea.
    Why? (Although it is more likely to be from bats, apparently.)

    Nearly all these "new" viruses have been zoonotic. (I think Ebola outbreaks always start with animal contact.) So it seems pretty normal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I would suspect that it would be more of a case of a bacteria walking out on somebody's shoes.
    Virus, I think, not bacteria.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    Two points: one is that it is not strange for it to be infectious before people are symptomatic.
    That's right - this is not some unique and frightening property of the novel coronavirus, as it's occasionally being suggested. The thing to remember is that asymptomatic transmission never drives respiratory disease epidemics, because symptomatic transmission is so much more effective. So if R0 for this virus is in the 2-3 range, then some some proportion <<1 will be accounted for by asymptomatic transmission. Effectively quarantine symptomatic individuals, and the epidemic will die out from lack of transmissibility.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Quote Originally Posted by Strange View Post
    Why? (Although it is more likely to be from bats, apparently.)

    Nearly all these "new" viruses have been zoonotic. (I think Ebola outbreaks always start with animal contact.) So it seems pretty normal.
    I can't see why it should "seem like a planted idea", but the snake story is being met with dubiety generally because coronaviruses aren't known to have reptilian hosts - birds and mammals are the usual reservoirs.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    CNN reports a significant jump in stats for the coronavirus: 4,585 infected, 106 dead (all in China).
    The news reports this morning have it at ~6,000 cases and 132 deaths, all in China. They suspect both numbers are higher but there aren't enough testing kits to confirm this.
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    My interest in this disease remains quite high as I am over 60 and have many preexisting conditions, putting me squarely in the population this virus is best at killing.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    Virus, I think, not bacteria.
    Correct.
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    CNN: 7,819 infected, every province in China w/ cases. 170 dead in China. Russia closes border w/ China. Millions in China isolated in homes. Question whether quarantine is working.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Newspapers can't decide between "Good news: coronavirus vaccine will enter Phase 1 trials within three months" and "Bad news: coronavirus vaccine months away from testing".

    (Our ability to produce new vaccines on the fly is actually little short of miraculous these days, compared to when we had the SARS outbreak.)

    Grant Hutchison

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    For perspective, the common flu causes up to 5 million cases of severe illness worldwide and kills up to 650,000 people every year, according to the World Health Organizational. And we have vaccines for that.
    Last edited by headrush; 2020-Jan-30 at 02:46 PM. Reason: grammar

  27. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    CNN: 7,819 infected, every province in China w/ cases. 170 dead in China. Russia closes border w/ China. Millions in China isolated in homes. Question whether quarantine is working.
    It is too difficult to answer at this time, whether the quarantine is working. Somehow SARS and MERS were stopped. Maybe the techniques used by WHO work. We will see in the next month how this is going to go. It could be that knowledge of the disease quickly changes peoples behavior, which results in these types of diseases stop. It is a mystery to me.
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    Quote Originally Posted by headrush View Post
    For perspective, the common flu causes up to 5 million cases of severe illness worldwide and kills up to 650,000 people every year, according to the World Health Organizational. And we have vaccines for that.
    Good point but no one wants a competitor to that.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Good point but no one wants a competitor to that.
    I don't believe this virus is a competitor. I've heard figures of around 3% mortality rate, but as no one knows how many are infected and survive without ever becoming part of official figures, that mortality rate may actually be far too high. It is flu season and the symptoms of the Wuhan virus are indistinguishable as far as I know.

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    Wonder if Wuhan could make the flu, pneumonia, bronchitis, etc., worse.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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