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Thread: Disease and pandemics thread (because it's science)

  1. #421
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    Quote Originally Posted by George View Post
    The big jump in the numbers may be explained in part by these excerpts taken from here.


    "Hubei’s health commission said it was now including in its confirmed tally those people diagnosed via CT scans as well as via testing kits. Previously, the authorities had included only those cases confirmed by the diagnostic testing kits, which are in short supply.
    Yes, that is the broadening of diagnostic criteria I mentioned. The problem is that chest CT appearances of viral/atypical pneumonia are not diagnostic for organism, so there may be other pneumonias caught in that trawl. And many people can have the disease but no chest CT changes, so wouldn't be identified as cases. Muddy waters.

    Grant Hutchison

  2. #422
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I still think every country has a vested interest in preventing panic.
    A usually sensible BBC news correspondent said the other night that there was "so far no need to panic". As if there is ever a need to panic.

    Grant Hutchison

  3. #423
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Yes, that is the broadening of diagnostic criteria I mentioned. The problem is that chest CT appearances of viral/atypical pneumonia are not diagnostic for organism, so there may be other pneumonias caught in that trawl. And many people can have the disease but no chest CT changes, so wouldn't be identified as cases. Muddy waters.
    That's what I thought, and I was hoping you would comment on it.
    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

  4. #424
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    At the moment there are officially 6285 "Recovered" individuals.
    I assume:
    * They are mostly in China
    * They are considered not to be transmitters of the CORVID-19
    * They are considered immune to CORVID-19
    * They are sent home with a handshake

    I think these individuals are too valuable to be sent home. They should be offered very high salaries to work as buffer personnel for delivering goods and necessities among the population. This should reduce the unprotected mixing of individuals.
    Just my 2 cents worth.

  5. #425
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    Quote Originally Posted by a1call View Post
    A Google search is the only thing I can do.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=Trea...od+transfusion
    Perhaps it can somehow help.
    Well, I am glad someone is Listening/Thinking-Alike:

    helpful (@lifetree22)
    2020-02-13, 12:03 PM
    After tried in 12 ICU patients who were at a life survival critical period with the processed plasma from the recently fully recovered #coronavirus patients, all of them are now getting much better! China began to encourage the recent fully recovered patients to donate blood. pic.twitter.com/ydQVk0bcun

    Download the Twitter app

  6. #426
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    Quote Originally Posted by George View Post
    That's what I thought, and I was hoping you would comment on it.
    The other muddy water surrounds the spike in death rate yesterday. Does it incorporate historical, previously unreported deaths with chest CTs that now qualify for inclusion as cases (and so all got piled into a single day's report), or does it represent a day's deaths incorporating only that day's CT diagnoses? And is the spike entirely due to the diagnostic change, or is there a real spike in serologically confirmed deaths? The information doesn't seem to have been released, but presumably things will become marginally clearer over the next few days.

    Grant Hutchison

  7. #427
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    The other muddy water surrounds the spike in death rate yesterday. Does it incorporate historical, previously unreported deaths with chest CTs that now qualify for inclusion as cases (and so all got piled into a single day's report), or does it represent a day's deaths incorporating only that day's CT diagnoses? And is the spike entirely due to the diagnostic change, or is there a real spike in serologically confirmed deaths? The information doesn't seem to have been released, but presumably things will become marginally clearer over the next few days.

    Grant Hutchison
    I'm pretty sure it went up because deaths in CT confirmed cases were included in the data. However the change in methodology did not include all areas with the virus. There are rumors that there were not sufficient test kits and or personnel to test all symptomatic people with the swab test and the swab tests have a lot of false negatives due to location of the infection not in the swab location.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  8. #428
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    I believe I heard the counts-breakdown in NHKWORLD-Japan-News today.
    I did not mark it down. I think the broadcast will not update for a few hours yet.
    ETA The broadcast is in English.

  9. #429
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    Quote Originally Posted by a1call View Post
    Unfortunately calm does not promote subscription to NY-Times or advertising revenues.
    Regurgitating same old news with ever more shocking headlines on the other hand ...
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...esearcher-says
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  10. #430
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I'm pretty sure it went up because deaths in CT confirmed cases were included in the data.
    Yes, we know that. But we need to know how much of the jump is due to those CT-diagnosed (I'd hesitate to use the word "confirmed") cases, and whether the additional CT-diagnosed cases are a single day's worth, or include historical cases.

    Grant Hutchison

  11. #431
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Yes, we know that. But we need to know how much of the jump is due to those CT-diagnosed (I'd hesitate to use the word "confirmed") cases, and whether the additional CT-diagnosed cases are a single day's worth, or include historical cases.

    Grant Hutchison
    They are going to modify the daily totals going back to reflect when those diagnoses were actually made. https://www.worldometers.info/corona...12-case-surge/
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  12. #432
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Yes, we know that. But we need to know how much of the jump is due to those CT-diagnosed (I'd hesitate to use the word "confirmed") cases, and whether the additional CT-diagnosed cases are a single day's worth, or include historical cases.

    Grant Hutchison
    How much do you think medical care helps the serious cases? How many cases are too much for healthcare to be able to deal with the problem. I know we use intubation and Bipap for treating people in severe respiratory distress, but those types of services are pretty limited.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  13. #433
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Yes, we know that. But we need to know how much of the jump is due to those CT-diagnosed (I'd hesitate to use the word "confirmed") cases, and whether the additional CT-diagnosed cases are a single day's worth, or include historical cases.

    Grant Hutchison
    “Most of these [additional] cases relate to a period going back days or weeks,” said Dr Michael Ryan, the WHO’s head of emergencies. “It is retrospective reporting. It is largely due to how cases are being diagnosed and reported.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...epidemic-china

  14. #434
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    Yeh well, take a number CORVID-19:

    Forget Coronavirus: This ‘Earth Destroyer’ Asteroid Could Kill You First
    https://www.ccn.com/forget-coronavir...ill-you-first/

  15. #435
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    Hoo boy, I will make a point of avoiding that website. Quoting from the article:

    As if the worsening coronavirus pandemic isn’t terrifying enough, NASA says a giant, “potentially hazardous asteroid” will cross within 0.038 astronomical units of Earth.
    Shocking! It will ONLY miss earth by about three and a half million miles. Good job article author not clarifying that in units most readers would understand.

    "The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." — Abraham Lincoln

    I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

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  16. #436
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    More on an earlier subject from "An expert from Wuhan":
    "There are large numbers of antibodies in recovered patients and this can fight the virus. I sincerely hope the recovered patients can come to hospitals to donate plasma so that we can work together to rescue the patients who are still struggling with the disease."




    http://chinaplus.cri.cn/podcast/detail/2/44387

  17. #437
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    Quote Originally Posted by George View Post
    "Hubei’s health commission said it was now including in its confirmed tally those people diagnosed via CT scans as well as via testing kits. Previously, the authorities had included only those cases confirmed by the diagnostic testing kits, which are in short supply.
    George, they have revised the deaths back to 1,383 from 1,487 (-104) probably because they cannot really attribute stage 4 COPD deaths to Coronavirus without identifying Coronavirus in their systems because the CT scans of the lung damage are very similar. I know because I have stage 3 COPD and had 5 CT scans in a 12 month period.

    The latest figures are Infected 64,441 deaths 1,383 Recovered 6,983 and the ratio of Infected/deaths is decreasing and Recovered/deaths is increasing.

  18. #438
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    Darpa Cranks Up Antibody Research to Stall Coronavirus

    “We can check every single cell within hours that it comes out of the patient,” says AbCellera’s CEO, Carl Hansen. “Now with a single patient sample we can generate 400 antibodies in a single day of screening.”

    ....

    So researchers are instead investigating whether an infusion of antibodies alone can be used as a short-lived—but immediately available—treatment to protect doctors and hospital workers, as well as family members of infected patients who need it right away.
    ....

    After isolating these antibodies, the researchers then capture their genetic code, using it as a blueprint to mass produce them. Their goal is to create an antibody treatment that can be injected directly into a patient, giving them an instant boost against the invading coronavirus.

    https://www.wired.com/story/darpa-cr...source=twitter

  19. #439
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    How much do you think medical care helps the serious cases? How many cases are too much for healthcare to be able to deal with the problem. I know we use intubation and Bipap for treating people in severe respiratory distress, but those types of services are pretty limited.
    Medical care is beneficial if you need medical care. High dependency care is beneficial if you need high dependency care. Intensive care is beneficial if you need intensive care. We go through this process every year with seasonal flu.

    Grant Hutchison

  20. #440
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Medical care is beneficial if you need medical care. High dependency care is beneficial if you need high dependency care. Intensive care is beneficial if you need intensive care. We go through this process every year with seasonal flu.

    Grant Hutchison
    I was really asking, if medical care is overwhelmed, and only a small fraction of people could be treated, how would the death rate be changed for Covid-19.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  21. #441
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I was really asking, if medical care is overwhelmed, and only a small fraction of people could be treated, how would the death rate be changed for Covid-19.
    Isn't the answer obvious?

    Grant Hutchison

  22. #442
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    CNN article on the dangers and troubles besetting the frontline medical workers in Wuhan, China. Things are very bad.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/13/asia/...hnk/index.html
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  23. #443
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    Healthcare staff are always exposed to a bunch of crap. Since I work with patients with pneumonia, and a bunch of other things I always get exposed. People cough, defecate, urinate, vomit, or expose staff to other body fluids all the time. We do the best to try to prevent illness. There are a bunch of precautions we take, but I feel it is like bandaids. Weird thing is, I rarely get sick. I had a scare with tuberculosis, my test in November, with quantiferon gold showed tuberculosis, but a chest xray showed no TB, so it was latent TB. I refused antibiotics and wanted to be retested in 3 months. 3 months later the quantiferon gold was completely negative.
    Thinking I probably had latent TB for 3 months was no fun. Regardless, we help people with serious illness all the time. It is what we do. When Covid-19 gets here, I will take care of those people too.
    I don't think I am doing anything anybody else wouldn't do I think truck drivers are more brave than me.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  24. #444
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    Healthcare staff are always exposed to a bunch of crap. Since I work with patients with pneumonia, and a bunch of other things I always get exposed. People cough, defecate, urinate, vomit, or expose staff to other body fluids all the time. We do the best to try to prevent illness. There are a bunch of precautions we take, but I feel it is like bandaids. Weird thing is, I rarely get sick. I had a scare with tuberculosis, my test in November, with quantiferon gold showed tuberculosis, but a chest xray showed no TB, so it was latent TB. I refused antibiotics and wanted to be retested in 3 months. 3 months later the quantiferon gold was completely negative.
    Thinking I probably had latent TB for 3 months was no fun. Regardless, we help people with serious illness all the time. It is what we do. When Covid-19 gets here, I will take care of those people too.
    I don't think I am doing anything anybody else wouldn't do I think truck drivers are more brave than me.
    I understand your concern Copernicus and wish you and your colleagues the best luck, even without Covid-19.

    I was looking for US Flu figures and I came across articles in the Washington Post that referred to the 2017/18 US flu season with 80,000 deaths and millions infected along with 2018/19 reports of 67,000 deaths and further reports of the current 2019/20 US flu deaths being around 20,000 so the Chinese Flu death reports may be a teensy weeny bit overblown when you consider that their population is around 4 times more than the US.

    Full credit to the Chinese medical people, and to those dedicated professionals all around the world, who are prepared to put their own lives on the line to contain the spread of the virus and selflessly help others in their time of need.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

  25. #445
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    Not sure if this has been posted here. Both were put out in 2015.

    Engineered bat virus stirs debate over risky research
    Lab-made coronavirus related to SARS can infect human cells.
    Declan Butler
    12 November 2015

    https://www.nature.com/news/engineer...search-1.18787


    Published: 09 November 2015
    A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence
    https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985

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    I wonder if the death rate of flu death as went up or down since the big push on flu shots? That is one figure I would like to see. Hopefully one that comes from an independent source and not Big Pharma itself.

  27. #447
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    WHO (today):
    Globally 51,857 laboratory-confirmed (1,278 new)

    China:
    51,174 laboratory-confirmed (1,121 new)
    1,666 deaths (142 new)

    Outside of China:
    683 laboratory-confirmed (157 new)
    25 countries
    3 deaths (1 new)

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...7-covid-19.pdf
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  28. #448
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    The 143 deaths reported on Feb 15 is equal to the number of deaths reported in the previous 24 hours - so a transient growth factor of zero. I suppose that may bear a relationship to the peak in reported daily new cases back in Feb 4-5. Will be interesting to see what happens in the next few days.

    Grant Hutchison

  29. #449
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    One interesting observation:

    In the latest WHO situation report, there were 683 laboratory-confirmed cases outside of China, and three deaths. So I decided to go back and see how many deaths there had been in China when the number of cases was about that number.

    It turns out that in the January 23 report there were 581 cases and 17 deaths, and in the January 24 report there were 846 cases and 25 deaths. So 683 would calculate to about 20 deaths. So there is a huge gap between the death rate in China and outside at the same time. I can think of a few possibilities why:

    -the time lag between infection and death is becoming longer.
    -the number of cases in China is underreported.
    -the disease is more deadly in China than outside.
    -people outside China are getting better treatment.
    -the disease is becoming weaker.

    I think that the second and fourth are likely true. Anything about the other three would be very speculative. And the second implies that the death rate is probably lower than what one would calculate from official figures.
    As above, so below

  30. #450
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    One interesting observation:

    In the latest WHO situation report, there were 683 laboratory-confirmed cases outside of China, and three deaths. So I decided to go back and see how many deaths there had been in China when the number of cases was about that number.

    It turns out that in the January 23 report there were 581 cases and 17 deaths, and in the January 24 report there were 846 cases and 25 deaths. So 683 would calculate to about 20 deaths. So there is a huge gap between the death rate in China and outside at the same time. I can think of a few possibilities why:

    -the time lag between infection and death is becoming longer.
    -the number of cases in China is underreported.
    -the disease is more deadly in China than outside.
    -people outside China are getting better treatment.
    -the disease is becoming weaker.

    I think that the second and fourth are likely true. Anything about the other three would be very speculative. And the second implies that the death rate is probably lower than what one would calculate from official figures.
    I think you are right. Some of the data is bad. I would suspect it is very difficult to catch these things. At the same time the quarantine must be working. I don't know why the death rate is lower, I'm guessing the hospitals in Wuhan are overwhelmed. In a normal workweek I feel overwhelmed, but I can't imagine what these hospital workers are going through. Something out of the worst horror movie. People gasping for air all around. Crying with extreme anxiety. The staff overheated and dehydrated wearing the Tyvek suits. Wearing diapers so they don't have to change suits every time they have to urinate.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

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