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Thread: Disease and pandemics thread (because it's science)

  1. #451
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    The idea of a "case" has different definitions within China and outside China. Outside China, with serological screening, you're a case if you test positive - so we have asymptomatic cases. Inside China, you could test positive but would not become a case unless you were also symptomatic - so no such thing as an asymptomatic case.
    And anyway no-one was going looking for asymptomatic people to test, in China, because they were (and are) primarily concerned with managing the symptomatic. Whereas outside China we have the leisure and interest to screen asymptomatic people returning from high-risk areas.

    So there's no real comparison between the two situations in terms of case-fatality.

    Grant Hutchison

  2. #452
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    WHO (today):
    Globally 51,857 laboratory-confirmed (1,278 new)

    China:
    51,174 laboratory-confirmed (1,121 new)
    1,666 deaths (142 new)

    Outside of China:
    683 laboratory-confirmed (157 new)
    25 countries
    3 deaths (1 new)

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...7-covid-19.pdf

    John Hopkins: Now Total Confirmed: 71,349, Total Deaths: 1,775, Total Recovered: 11,135.

    Ratio of Recovered/Confirmed has jumped from around 10% to around 15% in the past 5 days.

  3. #453
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    The John Hopkins dashboard is made available by their CSSE, Center for Systems Science and Engineering.

    The app also has tabs for Actual figures, Log charts, New Cases, the raw Data and a world Map.

  4. #454
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    The idea of a "case" has different definitions within China and outside China. Outside China, with serological screening, you're a case if you test positive - so we have asymptomatic cases. Inside China, you could test positive but would not become a case unless you were also symptomatic - so no such thing as an asymptomatic case.
    And anyway no-one was going looking for asymptomatic people to test, in China, because they were (and are) primarily concerned with managing the symptomatic. Whereas outside China we have the leisure and interest to screen asymptomatic people returning from high-risk areas.

    So there's no real comparison between the two situations in terms of case-fatality.

    Grant Hutchison
    Thanks for that good explanation of the situation Grant. I've been worrying about the definition of "a case" for some time, and also the apparent discrepancy in CFR between China and outside-China. This explains a lot.

  5. #455
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaurieAG View Post
    Roger, the relationship between blood groups and disease might be one possible cause of vaccination issues.

    http://www.bloodjournal.org/content/115/23/4635

    I have even heard anecdotal stories about certain national cultures that prefer marriages with partners of certain rare blood types due to the potential extra immunity conferred to any children born. While you could not do this prior to the creation of the scientific notion of different blood types, families that survived local plagues and disease outbreaks due to the relationship between blood groups and disease, would be expected to have a higher life expectancy.
    This may be true, but it would be a very modern tradition, as blood types weren't discovered until the beginning of the 20th Century or thereabouts.
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  6. #456
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    In Japan it used to be common for hospitals to test babies for blood type. It is less common now, but people often ask the doctor to check their blood type when they get blood drawn for another reason, like to check for allergies. So most, but not all, people know their blood type.


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    When my wife was expecting, we both had to get our blood typed as she's Rh-negative. Conveniently, so am I.
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  7. #457
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    Latest from Matador.

    UPDATED February 17 2020: Latest figures over show 5 consecutive days of stable increases in recorded COVID-19 cases (see more in Latest developments below). The Chinese government has introduced stricter quarantine measures in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. The authorities in the capital Beijing and Chongqing have imposed a 14-day self-quarantine requirement for all visitors, including foreign visitors, entering the cities. Those who disobey the regulation will face punishment. We continue to strongly recommend that travellers keep up to date with the situation and take all necessary precautions.

    Latest developments:
    The central Chinese government on 11 February announced that major inter-provincial highways should not be blocked. Following the announcement, inter-provincial transport resumed in several provinces, including Anhui, Chongqing, Fujian, Guangdong, Hunan, Jiangsu, Shandong, Sichuan and Zhejiang. The authorities in the capital Beijing and Chongqing have, however, imposed a 14-day self-quarantine requirement for all visitors, including foreign visitors, entering the cities. Those who disobey the regulation will face punishment. Similar level of quarantine measures are in place in other locations and may be expanded further at short notice.
    The total recorded cases in China currently stands at 71,810 with 1,771 fatalities. For 5 consecutive days the number of new cases reported have stabilised somewhat. Outside of China the number of confirmed cases has more than doubled since February 14 from 585 to 1,257. There have now been have been confirmed with 4 fatalities in 28 countries: Australia, Belgium, Cambodia, Canada, Egypt (new), Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Italy, Japan, Macau, Malaysia, Nepal, the Philippines, Russia, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, the UAE, United Kingdom, the United States and Vietnam. The largest cluster outside of China is of 369 passengers aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship moored at Daikoku Pier in Yokohama, Japan. Updated figures can be found on Johns Hopkins University's coronavirus tracking map. ...
    That "stable increases" bit sounds encouraging. The threat of punishment does not.

    (The Diamond Princess is the ship whose US passengers - some anyway - are being evacuated to CA and TX.)
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  8. #458
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim View Post
    (The Diamond Princess is the ship whose US passengers - some anyway - are being evacuated to CA and TX.)
    Yes, and the hospital choice at the Lackland AFB area has been a bit of a secret, though I think the word has spread by now.

    I thought I heard as I was walking out the door that those coming to the States had not been tested.

    There still doesn't seem to be a correlation in the CFR when assuming various time lags between cases and deaths, or am I missing something? It seems a bit odd to me that the 2-day lag seems to be the best fit for a correlation, which is odd to me, though the quality of the data must be considered.

    [Corrected 1 label...]
    Time lag chart.jpg
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  9. #459
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    WHO as of today/tonight:
    SITUATION IN NUMBERS total and new cases in last 24 hours

    Globally: 71,429 confirmed (2162 new)

    China: 70,635 confirmed (2,051 new) 1,772 deaths (106 new)

    Outside of China: 794 confirmed (111 new), 25 countries, 3 deaths

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=a19cf2ad_2
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  10. #460
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim View Post
    That "stable increases" bit sounds encouraging. The threat of punishment does not.
    Coronavirus is definitely the lesser of the two evils.
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  11. #461
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    WHO as of today/tonight:
    SITUATION IN NUMBERS total and new cases in last 24 hours

    Globally: 71,429 confirmed (2162 new)

    China: 70,635 confirmed (2,051 new) 1,772 deaths (106 new)

    Outside of China: 794 confirmed (111 new), 25 countries, 3 deaths

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=a19cf2ad_2
    Latest from Johns Hopkins University, Total Confirmed: 73,335, Total Deaths: 1,873, Total Recovered: 12,745 and the ratio of Recovered/Infected is over 17%.

  12. #462
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    There is a noticeable steady adjusted CFR for either a 6-day time lag or a 7-day time lag, where the adjusted CRF doesn't vary by more than 0.1% either way. [Adjusted CFR is taking one day's no. of deaths/# of cases 6 days prior to that day, for this 6-day time lag example.]

    This adjusted CFR is 4.1% for the 6-day, 4.4% for the 7-day time lag, and the time frame for these steady values is six days. The big spike of the 12th does not yet affect these values, but will.
    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

  13. #463
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    Any possibility that some people will always be shedding virus, like Typhoid Mary? It seems bats never really kill there viruses.
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  14. #464
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    Well, the 14 days quarantine is over for the Diamond Princess passengers and they have been allowed to disembark.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/18/asia/...ntl/index.html

    Oh, remember those 300+ US citizens who opted for evacuation? They still have 10-12 days in quarantine to go … and 14 of them have developed symptoms.
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  15. #465
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim View Post
    Well, the 14 days quarantine is over for the Diamond Princess passengers and they have been allowed to disembark.
    They should stop calling it a quarantine, since it has served no useful function in that regard. Given that new cases were occurring continuously while the ship was in isolation, there are very likely people who are incubating the virus getting off the ship now. With hindsight, they might as well have disembarked passengers as soon as the ship docked.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Obviously, it is very curious, that so many Chinese are dying from the Covid-19. They talk about a cytokine storm. I have to wonder if there is some traditional immune boosting herbs, that they are using, that might be making the problem worse.
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  17. #467
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    They should stop calling it a quarantine, since it has served no useful function in that regard. Given that new cases were occurring continuously while the ship was in isolation, there are very likely people who are incubating the virus getting off the ship now. With hindsight, they might as well have disembarked passengers as soon as the ship docked.
    I see that a Japanese microbiologist has now blown the whistle on how ineffective the "quarantine" was on Diamond Princess.
    The UK has also tacitly acknowledged the fact, and will put British citizens evacuated from the ship through a further, proper 14-day quarantine in the UK.

    Grant Hutchison

  18. #468
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    WHO assessment from 2/19/2020: total and new cases in last 24 hours

    Globally: 75,204 confirmed (1,872 new)

    China: 74,280 confirmed (1752 new), 2,006 deaths (136 new)

    Outside of China: 924 confirmed (120 new), 25 countries, 3 deaths


    ALSO: BBC UPDATES. 542 cases aboard Diamond Princess. Wow!

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...19/ar-BB109MCw
    Last edited by Roger E. Moore; 2020-Feb-20 at 12:09 AM. Reason: more
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  19. #469
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim View Post
    Well, the 14 days quarantine is over for the Diamond Princess passengers and they have been allowed to disembark.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/18/asia/...ntl/index.html

    Oh, remember those 300+ US citizens who opted for evacuation? They still have 10-12 days in quarantine to go … and 14 of them have developed symptoms.
    Those cruise ships seem to be perfect breeding grounds for these types of things Jim.

    Hopefully somebody will look into this after everything settles down as it is really one of the weakest links for effective containment.

  20. #470
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    Obviously, it is very curious, that so many Chinese are dying from the Covid-19. They talk about a cytokine storm. I have to wonder if there is some traditional immune boosting herbs, that they are using, that might be making the problem worse.
    I have been watching China Global TV Network (CGTN) on cable and they have had much local and international coverage.

    They reckon that the blood plasma treatments (from recovered patients) are effective for the advanced cases and removing women from HRT treatments actually reduces their total recovery times. They also state that in the milder cases traditional Chinese medicines are effective.

    In Australia 4 of the Confirmed milder cases who recovered were treated with paracetamol and it wouldn't surprise me if Indian Tonic Water would help due to the Quinine content.
    IMG_20200208_070608.jpg

    Latest John Hopkins Figures: Total Confirmed: 75,727, Total Deaths: 2,128, Total Recovered: 16,446 and the ratio of Recovered/Confirmed is now 21.71%.
    Last edited by LaurieAG; 2020-Feb-20 at 06:46 AM. Reason: correction

  21. #471
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaurieAG View Post
    Those cruise ships seem to be perfect breeding grounds for these types of things Jim.

    Hopefully somebody will look into this after everything settles down as it is really one of the weakest links for effective containment.
    One would think a high rise apartment would be similar.
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  22. #472
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    Worst jobs list should now include disinfecting the Diamond Princess. On a new topic, I don't like how fast and easily this virus spreads, all the new outbreak spots.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    The "confirmed case" definition confuses me. You have to be proven to have the virus now, and not just show the symptoms of Covid infection, right?
    Last edited by Roger E. Moore; 2020-Feb-20 at 04:45 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaurieAG View Post
    They also state that in the milder cases traditional Chinese medicines are effective.
    Well, in milder cases a poke in the eye would be "effective". People just get better in a few days, no matter what they do in the meantime. This is, of course, how homeopathy works, too.

    Quote Originally Posted by LaurieAG View Post
    In Australia 4 of the Confirmed milder cases who recovered were treated with paracetamol and it wouldn't surprise me if Indian Tonic Water would help due to the Quinine content.
    The paracetamol is for fever reduction (and is very effective), so is symptomatic management rather than disease-modifying.
    Although quinine does have a little antiviral activity as well as its effect on protozoa, the levels in tonic water are well below the therapeutic levels.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    The "confirmed case" definition confuses me. You have to be proven to have the virus now, and not just show the symptoms of Covid infection, right?
    What I guess I meant is, possible false negative test results are being ignored.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    The "confirmed case" definition confuses me. You have to be proven to have the virus now, and not just show the symptoms of Covid infection, right?
    The symptoms of COVID-19 infection are non-specific, and not in any way diagnostic of the organism, any more than feeling like you have flu means you have been infected by the influenza virus.

    Grant Hutchison

  27. #477
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    The symptoms of COVID-19 infection are non-specific, and not in any way diagnostic of the organism, any more than feeling like you have flu means you have been infected by the influenza virus.

    Grant Hutchison
    Tylenol and ibuprofen seem to have some antibiotic affects on some bacteria, although I do not know how robust the study was. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2889646/ Could help prevent secondary infections.
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  28. #478
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    Conspiracy theories spread faster than Covid. Coworker was going on about the virus being a Chinese bioweapon meant for the US, but she got distracted and stopped before I screamed.
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  29. #479
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    The symptoms of COVID-19 infection are non-specific, and not in any way diagnostic of the organism, any more than feeling like you have flu means you have been infected by the influenza virus.
    Okay, that makes sense.
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  30. #480
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Okay, that makes sense.
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