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Thread: Disease and pandemics thread (because it's science)

  1. #481
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    How did I get to be associated with this story... Kind of a non sequitur. Still, interesting. I worked at Central State Hospital in Louisville for 5 years. Patients did not get a choice in the race of the person treating them as it was an inpatient psychiatric hospital for severe mental illness. Attacks on others resulted in restraints. And medication.
    Last edited by Roger E. Moore; 2020-Feb-20 at 09:41 PM.
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  2. #482
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    WHO total and new cases in last 24 hours

    Globally: 75,748 confirmed (548 new)

    China: 74,675 confirmed (399 new), 2,121 deaths (115 new)

    Outside of China: 1,073 confirmed (149 new), 26 countries (1 new), 8 deaths (5 new)
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  3. #483
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    I worked at Central State Hospital in Louisville for 5 years. Patients did not get a choice in the race of the person treating them as it was an inpatient psychiatric hospital for severe mental illness. Attacks on others resulted in restraints. And medication.
    Back on topic, the swine flu pandemic of 2009-2010 was pretty scary at CSH. Any virus would have run rampant through the hospital, so we were extra careful. I gave talks to encourage patients to take the vaccine, and they all did to my knowledge. We dodged a disaster big time. Hospital's sort of like a cruise ship, in that if you can't leave and someone gets sick, everyone gets sick.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  4. #484
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    U.S. hospitals getting ready in case there is a COVID global pandemic, checking their supplies--but flu season is well underway, too.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/19/hosp...-pandemic.html
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  5. #485
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Well, in milder cases a poke in the eye would be "effective". People just get better in a few days, no matter what they do in the meantime. This is, of course, how homeopathy works, too.
    I'd rather have a nice bowl of chicken soup or a cup of tea than a poke in the eye. Just saying....
    At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

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  6. #486
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    I guess we have to get toilets that don't nebulize stool. Feces particles floating on to every surface. Even on to tooth brushes.

    https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/coro...211104361.html

    Coronavirus May Be Spreading So Quickly Due to Fecal Transmission, Says New Research

    https://www.businessinsider.com/flus...r-germs-2016-3

    Here's why you should always close the toilet lid when you flush
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  7. #487
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    Latest from John Hopkins University Total Confirmed: 76,726, Total Deaths: 2,247, Total Recovered: 18,547 and the ratio of Recovered/Confirmed is 24.17%.

  8. #488
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    Busses carrying evacuees from China in Ukraine have been attacked by protesters.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51581805


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  9. #489
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    Any possibility that some people will always be shedding virus, like Typhoid Mary? It seems bats never really kill there viruses.
    I guess, that answers that. https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus...-virus-1488410
    RECOVERED CORONAVIRUS PATIENTS WHO HAVE TRACES OF COVID-19 IN THEIR BODIES COULD INFECT OTHERS, DOCTOR WARNS
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  10. #490
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I guess, that answers that. https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus...-virus-1488410
    RECOVERED CORONAVIRUS PATIENTS WHO HAVE TRACES OF COVID-19 IN THEIR BODIES COULD INFECT OTHERS, DOCTOR WARNS
    QUOTE FROM ARTICLE: However, professor Mark Harris of the School of Molecular and Cellular Biology at the University of Leeds, U.K. cautioned to Newsweek that he is not aware of any scientific publications showing evidence for virus in recovered patients. "It is certainly possible but unlikely to be high levels or persist for a long period— otherwise they would continue to show symptoms. We need some solid scientific evidence before making any conclusions about this," he said.

    So the jury is out, actually, but this could be an ugly development if true.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  11. #491
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    Coronavirus May Be Spreading So Quickly Due to Fecal Transmission, Says New Research ^^
    Don't those kind of diseases spread best in warm weather? So maybe Covid-19 might not take a summer vacation?
    SHARKS (crossed out) MONGEESE (sic) WITH FRICKIN' LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

  12. #492
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    The outbreak has been going for some time now, and significantly longer than a typical case history.
    That being the case, I think calculating the CFR from:

    CFR= dead/(dead+recovered)

    is getting more accurate as time goes on. In the early days, it was misleading because there is a greater time lag to be classed as recovered. This biased the CFR high.

    The equation at the time of writing gives 10.8%. It has been reducing exponentially but is asymptotically approaching a limit. That is what it looks like anyhow.

    I'm just struggling to express this better, in particular, mathematically.

    Is it true that this equation will get more accurate as time goes on, and what is the equation involving lag times etc?

  13. #493
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec View Post
    Coronavirus May Be Spreading So Quickly Due to Fecal Transmission, Says New Research ^^
    Don't those kind of diseases spread best in warm weather? So maybe Covid-19 might not take a summer vacation?
    I guess we will have to wait and see.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  14. #494
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I guess we will have to wait and see.
    Well, dang. I sure hope not. Wash your hands!

    https://www.livescience.com/coronavi...ugh-feces.html
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  15. #495
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    Checking CNN reveals large uncontained or poorly contained outbreaks of COVID-19 could be occurring in South Korea, Iran, Singapore, and other places (possibly North Korea). So when does this become a pandemic, again?
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  16. #496
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec View Post
    Coronavirus May Be Spreading So Quickly Due to Fecal Transmission, Says New Research ^^
    Don't those kind of diseases spread best in warm weather? So maybe Covid-19 might not take a summer vacation?
    Not "that kind of disease", but a couple of specific viruses with faecal-oral transmission: norovirus and rotavirus survive longer on contaminated surfaces in cold weather.
    But droplet-spray transmission is reduced by warm, humid weather, because the droplets fall out of the air faster. And as far as we know that's the primary mode of transmission of this coronavirus. So it might show seasonality like the common cold and flu, which are droplet transmitted diseases that more commonly produce outbreaks in winter. In effect, the warm weather drives down R0.

    Grant Hutchison

  17. #497
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Checking CNN reveals large uncontained or poorly contained outbreaks of COVID-19 could be occurring in South Korea, Iran, Singapore, and other places (possibly North Korea). So when does this become a pandemic, again?
    Simultaneous worldwide transmission affecting large numbers of people. Which is not happening at present.

    Grant Hutchison

  18. #498
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    Quote Originally Posted by kzb View Post
    The outbreak has been going for some time now, and significantly longer than a typical case history.
    That being the case, I think calculating the CFR from:

    CFR= dead/(dead+recovered)

    is getting more accurate as time goes on. In the early days, it was misleading because there is a greater time lag to be classed as recovered. This biased the CFR high.

    The equation at the time of writing gives 10.8%. It has been reducing exponentially but is asymptotically approaching a limit. That is what it looks like anyhow.

    I'm just struggling to express this better, in particular, mathematically.

    Is it true that this equation will get more accurate as time goes on, and what is the equation involving lag times etc?
    My 2 cents:
    I don't think the lag time is or has been much of a factor for your formula.
    The precision increase is the result of the correction of the anticipated initial bias in only reporting severe cases as is the case with any epidemic. Once the spread is large enough this number will be the most accurate measure notwithstanding the infected-but-not-detected which might have to be factored/weighted in by estimation.

  19. #499
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Well, dang. I sure hope not. Wash your hands!

    https://www.livescience.com/coronavi...ugh-feces.html
    I don't open up livescience because it tends to take over the computer. However the problem with fecal transmission is that toilets nebulize feces so it is everywhere in the bathroom and it goes on our feet. At home it stops if you don't wear shoes. At public places it gets carried all over because one is wearing shoes there. It lands on your clothes because toilets in public places don't have covers and the toilets are power nebulizers. Anyone in the bathroom is breathing the feces that are nebulized.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  20. #500
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    However the problem with fecal transmission is that toilets nebulize feces so it is everywhere in the bathroom and it goes on our feet. At home it stops if you don't wear shoes. At public places it gets carried all over because one is wearing shoes there. It lands on your clothes because toilets in public places don't have covers and the toilets are power nebulizers. Anyone in the bathroom is breathing the feces that are nebulized.
    For anyone who wants to look at the science, which is currently full of assumptions and extrapolations, a useful seach term is "toilet plume". The creation of an aerosol is merely the start of a potentially infective process, and there are numerous stages thereafter before a person can become infected.

    But you may never feel the same way about your toothbrush again.

    Grant Hutchison

  21. #501
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    Some speculation among microbiologists, based on transmission patterns and reported in New Scientist today, that COVID-19 may (like SARS) be primarily transmitted by a small number of "superspreaders"--people who produce much more virus in their secretions than most infected people. (A search on "superspreader" will turn up some good epidemiological data for those who want to know more.)
    This would make it easier to control, especially in the smaller outbreaks outside China. If it is the case, it should become evident in the next couple of weeks.

    Grant Hutchison

  22. #502
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Some speculation among microbiologists, based on transmission patterns and reported in New Scientist today, that COVID-19 may (like SARS) be primarily transmitted by a small number of "superspreaders"--people who produce much more virus in their secretions than most infected people. (A search on "superspreader" will turn up some good epidemiological data for those who want to know more.)
    This would make it easier to control, especially in the smaller outbreaks outside China. If it is the case, it should become evident in the next couple of weeks.
    Typhoid Mary lives again. There's also the question of how long the virus lives on touched surfaces, and so many other questions.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  23. #503
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Typhoid Mary lives again. There's also the question of how long the virus lives on touched surfaces, and so many other questions.
    Strictly, Typhoid Mary was an asymptomatic carrier rather than a superspreader. Salmonella typhi can colonize your gall bladder, particularly if you have gall stones. Each little squirt of bile then puts some bacteria into your gut, which you then excrete in your faeces. If you're not very good at washing your hands, other people can develop typhoid by ingesting food or drink you've handled. (Those who've been fretting about their coronavirus quarantine of 14 days should have some sympathy for poor Mary, who spent something like thirty years in enforced isolation.)

    Other coronaviruses can last for a week or so on contaminated surfaces, but we don't know what sort of viral load you need to pick up to become infected. We're constantly picking up viruses and bacteria from every surface we come in contact with, but very little of that goes on to produce an infection.

    Grant Hutchison

  24. #504
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    If you're not very good at washing your hands, other people can develop typhoid by ingesting food or drink you've handled. (Those who've been fretting about their coronavirus quarantine of 14 days should have some sympathy for poor Mary, who spent something like thirty years in enforced isolation.)
    Though from what I read, she had a lot to do with that by being extremely uncooperative. She was told she needed to practice better hygiene but apparently thought this new-fangled hand washing was a bunch of nonsense. She repeatedly would go off to find work as a cook/housekeeper after she had sickened a family, even though repeatedly told not to ever seek this type of employment again. She would use false identities and not tell anyone about her history. In short, she was a menace that had to be contained as much because of her behavior as for being a carrier.

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  25. #505
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Worst jobs list should now include disinfecting the Diamond Princess.
    And I was RIGHT!

    https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/d...ice/index.html
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  26. #506
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    For comparison, here is the CDC's latest numbers for the seasonal influenza, just in the US:
    CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 29 million flu illnesses, 280,000 hospitalizations and 16,000 deaths from flu.
    At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

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  27. #507
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    Trying to picture a yearly dynamic duo of regular mutating flu and the coronavirus, coming out together worldwide.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  28. #508
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    WHO report for today, last 24 hours:

    Globally: 77,794 confirmed (599 new)

    China: 76,392 confirmed (397 new), 2,348 deaths (109 new)

    Outside of China: 1,402 confirmed (202 new), 28 countries (2 new), 11 deaths (3 new)
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  29. #509
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Trying to picture a yearly dynamic duo of regular mutating flu and the coronavirus, coming out together worldwide.
    One of the articles I read claimed Coronaviruses mutate less than than the flu so if it does become a permanent fixture, a vaccine for covid-19 should be effective for an extended time before an update is required.

    "The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." — Abraham Lincoln

    I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

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  30. #510
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    Looking dodgy in Italy today, extreme measures now, but is it in time?
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

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