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Thread: Disease and pandemics thread (because it's science)

  1. #2641
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    It's worth bearing in mind that most transmission (even during lockdowns) is caused by asymptomatic, presymptomatic and early symptomatic people in the community, not by recovering people, or sick people in hospitals and care homes.

    Also, that sneezing is a very rare symptom of Covid. If you're sneezing, you probably have a condition that is not Covid.

    Grant Hutchison

  2. #2642
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    Canadian Forces arriving in Nova Scotia, Ontario for COVID-19 response
    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/cana...a-ontario-for/

    Denmark has ceased giving the Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid vaccine amid concerns about rare cases of blood clots
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56744474

    Italy Loosens Coronavirus Restrictions, Opera Houses Reopened on 26 April
    https://www.novinite.com/articles/20...ed+on+26+April



    2020 became 2021...
    With the Olympic Games looming, Japan has 85 days to sort its coronavirus outbreak
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-...reak/100096494

    How Sweden went from coronavirus outlier to Europe’s most infected country ...
    https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world...-most-infected

    ‘We are being ignored’: Brazil’s researchers blame anti-science government for devastating COVID surge
    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01031-w

    https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/wor...ies-who-701116
    India's double mutant Covid variant found in 17 countries: WHO
    India Reports Global Record Of 314K New Daily Cases
    https://rumble.com/vfyf01-india-repo...ily-cases.html
    New crematoriums being built as COVID-19 deaths continue to rise in India
    https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=9Pi5T_1619596804
    Crematoriums are being built in New Delhi to combat the continuing rise of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the country.


    Bodies of 22 COVID victims crammed into ambulance and cremated in western India. The bodies of 22 COVID-19 victims were on Tuesday (April 27) crammed into the back of an ambulance and taken for cremation in the Indian state of Maharashtra.

    Footage showed their funeral pyres burning at a crematorium in the city of Beed.

    Crucial medical supplies began to reach India on Tuesday as overwhelmed hospitals continued to turn away coronavirus patients.
    A spike in infections has pushed the death toll close to 200,000.
    There is an evolved mutation called B.1.617 variant, also a triple mutation variant has been named B1618

    This 'double mutant' variant is adding fuel to India's COVID-19 crisis
    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/s...ovid-19-crisis


    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
    up to date graphs
    Last edited by Launch window; 2021-Apr-28 at 11:36 PM.

  3. #2643
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    US advises citizens to leave India?
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ach-new-record
    Level 4 travel advisory --- the highest of its kind issued by the State Department??

  4. #2644
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    Quote Originally Posted by Launch window View Post
    US advises citizens to leave India?
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ach-new-record
    Level 4 travel advisory --- the highest of its kind issued by the State Department??
    Yes, Level 4 - "Do not travel" is the highest level (LINK).

    A quick look at the list showed over 150 countries at that level, I think most of them because of Covid 19.

    The India information says the following:
    Health Alert Wed, 28 Apr 2021
    Location: India, Actions to Take: Access to all types of medical care is becoming severely limited in India due to the surge in Covid-19 cases. U.S. citizens who wish to depart India should take advantage of available commercial transportation options now. Direct flights between India and the United States are offered daily, with additional flight options available
    Location: India, Event: On April 28, 2021, the Department of State authorized the voluntary departure of family members of U.S. government employees in Mission India. U.S. Embassy New Delhi and Consulates General Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, and Mumbai will remain open and continue to provide emergency consular services.
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  5. #2645
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    Some people have very little reaction to the vaccine. Other people get a fever, chills, exhaustion, but these go away in a day or two.

    Do these differing reactions to the vaccine indicate anything about how well one's immune system is prepped against the virus?
    Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.

  6. #2646
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cougar View Post
    Some people have very little reaction to the vaccine. Other people get a fever, chills, exhaustion, but these go away in a day or two.

    Do these differing reactions to the vaccine indicate anything about how well one's immune system is prepped against the virus?
    I'm sure Dr. Hutchison will give the medical answer, but IIRC, this was asked earlier in the thread, and the answer was no.
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  7. #2647
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    Quote Originally Posted by Swift View Post
    I'm sure Dr. Hutchison will give the medical answer, but IIRC, this was asked earlier in the thread, and the answer was no.
    Here's the link I posted last time: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41541-019-0132-6
    However, despite parallel associations of reactogenicity and adaptive responses with early innate responses, no predictive association was demonstrated between reactogenicity and the adaptive response, which suggests that the ‘no pain, no gain’ concept may not be valid, at least at the individual level.
    So the vaccine symptoms are caused by the innate immune response, which is involved in "presenting" the antigen to the adaptive immune system, so at a population level the degree of innate response a vaccine induces is predictive of the later specific immune response. But at an individual level, the symptoms don't tell you anything useful ... because, basically, people vary widely in the symptoms they experience from their own innate immune response.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    Since almost none of us in the general public are going to know the details of when a virus is going to stay airborne, maybe N95 masks are in order when we are close to people in public. That is how I feel anyways.
    CDC acknowledges covid is airborne. Don't know if this was true a year ago, since the disease seems to be much more contagious now. https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ve-updates-us/
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  9. #2649
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    CDC acknowledges covid is airborne. Don't know if this was true a year ago, since the disease seems to be much more contagious now. https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ve-updates-us/
    A nerdy point, contagious means by touch and infectious more general, so the opposite of what you mean. The virus was and is, I think, infectious by being airborne mostly. I think the indoors outdoors and spacing issues are dominant. As someone said, observe a vapour smoker breathing out the suspended water molecules. Those are visible but mirror what all of us breathe out. The indoors outdoors difference is very clear.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  10. #2650
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    Also, to my recollection, the CDC has acknowledged for at least a year that true airborne transmission can occur. I do wish journalists would stop portraying every slight change in emphasis from the CDC as if it were a massive U-turn. Anyway, here's the relevant page:
    Although infections through inhalation at distances greater than six feet from an infectious source are less likely than at closer distances, the phenomenon has been repeatedly documented under certain preventable circumstances. These transmission events have involved the presence of an infectious person exhaling virus indoors for an extended time (more than 15 minutes and in some cases hours) leading to virus concentrations in the air space sufficient to transmit infections to people more than 6 feet away, and in some cases to people who have passed through that space soon after the infectious person left
    Grant Hutchison

  11. #2651
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    As a reminder, the Joint WHO and China mission said the route was droplet and fomites and airborne was not seen. So saying that being airborne transmission by the CDC is a major turn around, not minor. https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...nal-report.pdf February 24, 2020.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  12. #2652
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    As a reminder, the Joint WHO and China mission said the route was droplet and fomites and airborne was not seen. So saying that being airborne transmission by the CDC is a major turn around, not minor. https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...nal-report.pdf February 24, 2020.
    Yes, and that was more than a year ago.
    The Skagit County choir practice superspreader event was reported by the CDC in May 2020, at which point an aerosol component to transmission was posited. That's the earliest occasion on which I recall the CDC invoking aerosol (as opposed to droplet) transmission, and it's almost exactly a year ago, as I said.

    Grant Hutchison

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    The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists is scarcely a Right Wing Fake News source. If anything, they are liberal and more likely to push the Wuhan Wet Market scenario.
    So is this article credible?
    https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-...-box-at-wuhan/
    SHARKS (crossed out) MONGEESE (sic) WITH FRICKIN' LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

  14. #2654
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec View Post
    The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists is scarcely a Right Wing Fake News source. If anything, they are liberal and more likely to push the Wuhan Wet Market scenario.
    So is this article credible?
    https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-...-box-at-wuhan/
    This post could have done without the first sentence entirely. Keep the politics out of it, please.
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  15. #2655
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    Sorry, PetersCreek.
    Can you edit that out then?
    SHARKS (crossed out) MONGEESE (sic) WITH FRICKIN' LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

  16. #2656
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    It seems like an interesting article. Trying not to go into politics, I think the Bulletin would absolutely consider the lab escape scenario. After all, their own description of themselves is "The Bulletin equips the public, policymakers, and scientists with the information needed to reduce man-made threats to our existence." So their very mission would necessitate considering that, and a quick look at their website shows that other articles seem to focus on the same angle.

    But a couple of flags about the article. One is that the author seems to have a reputation for making deceptive statements in support of his assertions. And in this case, I ran into something like that. He wrote this: "A second statement that had enormous influence in shaping public attitudes was a letter (in other words an opinion piece, not a scientific article) published on 17 March 2020 in the journal Nature Medicine." At first, I thought that was just sloppy journalism. Because if you actually look at Nature's site (and I was well aware of this myself, working in science communication...), it's clear that Letters are peer-reviewed reports and are not simply opinion pieces. But the thing is, the author actually worked as an editor at Nature, so it's impossible he doesn't know that. So it seems clear that he was being deceptive, i.e. bending the facts to support his opinion. The problem then is that since he's done that, the other statements he makes have to be taken with a grain of salt because it seems to show that he is willing to bend facts in other to make a point.

    Given that caveat, though, it seems interesting enough.
    As above, so below

  17. #2657
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec View Post
    So is this article credible?
    I'd recommend the OTB Covid-19 thread for press and journal articles.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  18. #2658
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    I'd recommend the OTB Covid-19 thread for press and journal articles.
    Belay that order (a serious recommendation with a funny way to express it)

    This thread is for the scientific discussion of the pandemic, whether references are from journals or other sources. The OTB thread is for the discussion of our personal experiences. Discussion of the BAS article in particular, or a more general discussion of the origins of the disease, belongs in this thread.
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  19. #2659
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I was afraid of this as a possibility. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...3MykIjfwBgiq24
    Coronavirus may have originated in lab linked to China's biowarfare program
    Investigate the Origins of Covid-19. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6543/694.1
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  20. #2660
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    I was just reading this article:

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/almost-4-...062303297.html

    Which says:

    As of June 12, there were 3,791 coronavirus cases among the more than 3.7 million fully vaccinated individuals in Massachusetts, reports said.
    The problem is that the information alone doesn't really tell me what I'm interested in. That says that about 1 person/thousand who has been vaccinated has gotten infected. However, what I want to know then is, out of people who aren't vaccinated, how many per thousand have gotten infected? Without knowing that it's really hard to tell how effective vaccination is.
    As above, so below

  21. #2661
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I was just reading this article:

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/almost-4-...062303297.html

    Which says:



    The problem is that the information alone doesn't really tell me what I'm interested in. That says that about 1 person/thousand who has been vaccinated has gotten infected. However, what I want to know then is, out of people who aren't vaccinated, how many per thousand have gotten infected? Without knowing that it's really hard to tell how effective vaccination is.
    But it is also relevant to know how ill the vaccinated cohort was. When the serious illness is rare, historically we do not care how many infections there are, nor do we bother to test to know how widespread a benign virus epidemic is. Vaccination has two benefits, one to individuals who avoid illness, and a second to society trying to keep hospital treatment reasonable. The evidence in this pandemic is that vaccination seems to be successful on both counts. But in this connected world, variants can restart the clock.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

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