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Thread: Disease and pandemics thread (because it's science)

  1. #331
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    03 February 2020 - Update number 360, based on data up to 19 January 2020

    ....
    n Northern Africa, influenza activity appeared to decrease in Egypt after peaking in recent weeks.

    .....

    • In tropical Africa, influenza activity was low across most reporting countries.


    https://www.who.int/influenza/survei...rveillance/en/

  2. #332
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Front-line medical staff are always at high risk of death in a new outbreak like this, because they spend a lot of time in the droplet-spray zone of infected patients. Not only do they inhale the virus, but various secondary bacteria. "Hospital acquired" pneumonias are particularly dangerous (and a good reason to stay away from hospital if you have a mild viral pneumonia).
    CNN report on the devastating spread of coronavirus in hospitals.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/07/healt...udy/index.html
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  3. #333
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    What happens if the coronavirus outbreak gets worse? Here are some possibilities. We might just get used to it.

    https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/7/21...cure-treatment
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  4. #334
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    CNN: The coronavirus death toll in the Chinese province of Hubei has risen to 699, according to the local health authority. That's an increase of 81 people from the day before. The total number of confirmed cases there now stands at 24,953. Of the 19,835 hospitalized patients in Hubei province, 1,007 are in critical condition. The new reported deaths brings the death toll worldwide to 724. All but two of those who died were in mainland China.

    https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/c...hnk/index.html
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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  6. #336
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Severe worldwide shortage of medical face masks is reported.
    Sigh. People wear these things in situations where they afford no protection at all, either to the uninfected wearer or to those around an infected wearer. It's unfortunate that the paper face-mask developed such a complicated social role in east Asia, particularly Japan in recent decades--mask wearing has become so common it has fooled a lot of people (including in mask-wearing countries) into thinking that it serves some sort of useful purpose. It's sorta-kinda the equivalent of the endless water-sipping so popular in the West these days. (I was recently amused to encounter a group of young Japanese people who were wearing face masks and carrying bottled water--a problematic clash of social affectations.)

    Grant Hutchison

  7. #337
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    It's sorta-kinda the equivalent of the endless water-sipping so popular in the West these days. (I was recently amused to encounter a group of young Japanese people who were wearing face masks and carrying bottled water--a problematic clash of social affectations.)
    Yeah, it has unfortunately taken root in Japan as well. Where I work, everyone but me has a water or green tea bottle. I think I’m the only person who ever drinks water from the tap (when I get thirsty...)

    A similar thing is the salt fad. Japanese eat way too much salt but then they go out and buy salted candies because they’re convinced they might die of an electrolyte imbalance. And this is not athletes, it’s people working in air-conditioned offices.


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  8. #338
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    There are reports of efforts directed at mass producing surgical masks which are supposedly not highly effective.
    I have yet to see any reports of mass production of bio-hazard masks and respirators or any pictures of masses wearing them.
    I find that surprising given the Chinese ability to mass produce anything with just about any complexity, cheap enough to be sold in discount stores.

  9. #339
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    I don’t want to get too far off topic, but people like to think they have some level of control. I suppose masks serve that purpose.

    If it helps calm the public, I can see the government “encouraging” mask wearing, even if it doesn’t really help much. Unlike hand washing, other people can see you’re doing it, which makes them feel better because they know that you’re taking the situation seriously.

    That’s my take, but I’m not a social psychologist.



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  10. #340
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I would suspect that it would be more of a case of a bacteria walking out on somebody's shoes. There are people at universities inventing new bacteria or viruses. Of course nature invents new viruses all the time too. I know that the procedures at these level 4 facilities are strict, but there are always little ways for incidental transmission can be carried out of a facility.
    The snake virus idea, just seemed like a planted idea.
    I would like to think that people are smart, but take hospitals for example, why is it that hospital are virtually the only place where there is not a self flushing or touchless flushing toilets. Why do hospitals have toilets that nebulize stool. Why aren't sinks touchless in hospitals. Bacteria travel all over a hospital by peoples feet. Why don't hospitals have touchless phones so that people don't have to touch phones when they are isolation precautions rooms.
    I guess it must be transported all over on peoples feet from stool on the ground. No hospital I know of, controls this. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...nsmission.html
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  11. #341
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    First American death.

    CNN: A total of 722 people had died from the virus and 34,546 were infected in mainland China by the end of Friday, China's National Health Commission said. The majority of new cases were recorded in Hubei province and its capital, Wuhan. Meanwhile, it emerged that a 60-year-old United States citizen had died from the virus at Jinyintian Hospital, in Wuhan, on February 6, according to the US Embassy in Beijing, marking the first confirmed death of a foreigner from the virus. Japan also reported its first death of suspected coronavirus in Wuhan on Saturday, according to an announcement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Japanese man in his 60s died of pneumonia. The hospital that treated him was inconclusive on the cause of the pneumonia.

    Globally, the virus has now infected more than 320 people in another 27 countries and territories, and killed a Chinese man in the Philippines and a 39-year-old male in Hong Kong. New cases were confirmed in Malaysia, Taiwan and Japan on Saturday.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/08/asia/...hnk/index.html
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  12. #342
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    Coronavirus can spread rapidly in hospitals, jumping to other patients and doctors alike.

    https://www.sciencenews.org/article/...erity-symptoms
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  13. #343
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    Just had a flick through New Scientist magazine in the supermarket. They have the same idea as me, by dividing deaths by current cases you underestimate the case fatality rate. It says this might be 14% of hospitalised cases.

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    17% cases now classed as severe. The death growth rate has gone positive again after yesterday's dip below 1.

  15. #345
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    Quote Originally Posted by kzb View Post
    Just had a flick through New Scientist magazine in the supermarket. They have the same idea as me, by dividing deaths by current cases you underestimate the case fatality rate.
    Yes, that's generally acknowledged to be true, to the extent I was taught it at medical school, which isn't yesterday. You can derive a CFR by dividing deaths by cases if a disease is at steady state in the population, but otherwise you need to follow a cohort. The problem is that we have yet to establish a cohort that is both well-defined (confident we have included all cases, and have not included non-cases) and large.

    Grant Hutchison

  16. #346
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    Masks do work for droplet, but not airborne microbes.
    The flimsy masks leak all round and would not filter tiny droplets carrying virus but one big factor is that they stop people touching their mouth and nose with hands, hands that have touched surfaces.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

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  18. #348
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    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    The flimsy masks leak all round and would not filter tiny droplets carrying virus but one big factor is that they stop people touching their mouth and nose with hands, hands that have touched surfaces.
    I don't really know how effective they are. Maybe 60-70 percent.
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  19. #349
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    CNN: The coronavirus death toll in the Chinese province of Hubei has risen to 780, according to the local health authority. That's an increase of 81 people from the day before. The total number of confirmed cases in Hubei jumped to 27,000. There are more than 20,000 patients hospitalized in Hubei province and 1,154 are in critical condition.

    The number of patients is probably high because the Chinese gov't is hunting for all those infected to put them in hospital quarantine.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  20. #350
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    CNBC: The global death toll from the new coronavirus is now at 805, higher than that of SARS. Hubei province reported Sunday morning that there were 81 additional deaths, bringing the total number of fatalities in the mainland to 803 so far. The global death toll for the new coronavirus currently stands at 805, including one death in the Philippines and another in Hong Kong.

    That compares to the SARS outbreak which killed at least 774 people and infected 8,096 people worldwide in 2002 and 2003, according to data from the World Health Organization.
    Hubei, the Chinese province at the center of the global outbreak, accounts for most of the deaths and cases around the world. The Hubei Provincial Health Committee also reported an additional 2,147 new cases, bringing the total of confirmed cases in the province to 27,100.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/09/coro...t-of-sars.html
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  21. #351
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    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    The flimsy masks leak all round and would not filter tiny droplets carrying virus but one big factor is that they stop people touching their mouth and nose with hands, hands that have touched surfaces.
    Actually, for those unused to them, they encourage face touching. People keep rubbing their noses and mouths behind the masks, because they're uncomfortable to wear. I saw an example in the airport yesterday. During the twenty minutes she sat opposite me, a young woman pulled her mask down, rubbed her nose and then replaced it, at least five times.

    Grant Hutchison

  22. #352
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Actually, for those unused to them, they encourage face touching. People keep rubbing their noses and mouths behind the masks, because they're uncomfortable to wear. I saw an example in the airport yesterday. During the twenty minutes she sat opposite me, a young woman pulled her mask down, rubbed her nose and then replaced it, at least five times.

    Grant Hutchison
    Oh dear another myth busted. So it's back to regular hand washing with soap and water, I think that's still true?!
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  23. #353
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    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    Oh dear another myth busted. So it's back to regular hand washing with soap and water, I think that's still true?!
    Soap and water always good--and in some cases much more effective than alcohol-based "hand sanitizers". Norovirus, the "winter vomiting" virus, is notoriously resistant to alcohol disinfectants, for instance.
    The urge to touch your face when wearing a face mask is pretty powerful--medical students do it all the time, despite the fact they've just donned sterile gloves. It requires a little bit of conscious training to reset your reflexes to: "Something on my face--therefore don't touch my face." Add to that the fact that most people don't know how to adjust the nose-piece embedded in the mask for comfort and security, and that many pull the mask down under their chins when speaking, and then replace it, and it's a recipe for fiddling with your face.

    Grant Hutchison

  24. #354
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    Letter to Nature, February 4, 2020 from Manli Wang, Ruiyuan Cao, Leike Zhang, Xinglou Yang, Jia Liu, Mingyue Xu, Zhengli Shi, Zhihong Hu, Wu Zhong & Gengfu Xiao

    Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0

    Also the rate of Infected/deaths is decreasing and Recovered/dead is increasing.

    http://who.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsd...f977d77e4a0667

    Note: the phone app dashboard from systems.jhu.edu (John Hopkins) is more up to date.

  25. #355
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Actually, for those unused to them, they encourage face touching. People keep rubbing their noses and mouths behind the masks, because they're uncomfortable to wear. I saw an example in the airport yesterday. During the twenty minutes she sat opposite me, a young woman pulled her mask down, rubbed her nose and then replaced it, at least five times.
    Yeah, I do that all--uh, I've heard that people do that all the time, yeah.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  26. #356
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    CNN: 813 people have died from the virus. The number of infected globally is now more than 37,000, with over 2,000 new infections confirmed in mainland China overnight.

    In the single-biggest outbreak outside of mainland China, 70 cases have now been confirmed on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship off the coast of Yokohama.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  27. #357
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    CNN: The Hubei Health Authority reported that 91 more people died of coronavirus in Hubei province on Sunday, raising the death toll in the epicenter since the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak to 871. The total number of deaths in mainland China is now at least 902. The global toll is at least 904, with one death in Hong Kong and one in the Philippines. Hubei authorities confirmed an additional 2,618 cases of the virus on Sunday, which brings the total number of cases in the epicenter of the outbreak to 29,631. The global number of confirmed coronavirus cases now exceeds 40,000, with the vast majority in mainland China.

    ME: Still going up pretty fast. Hasn't peaked yet.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  28. #358
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    8 32.0%
    9 30.1%
    10 28.8%
    11 25.2%
    12 21.6%
    13 17.3%
    14 18.7%
    15 17.7%
    16 15.5%
    17 14.8%
    I've added a few more.

    18 12.0%
    19 13.5%
    20 12.3%

    So it is still rising, and has been pretty stable for a few days at around 12 or 13%. So it seems it is neither peaking nor exploding.
    As above, so below

  29. #359
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    CNN: 813 people have died from the virus. The number of infected globally is now more than 37,000, with over 2,000 new infections confirmed in mainland China overnight.

    In the single-biggest outbreak outside of mainland China, 70 cases have now been confirmed on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship off the coast of Yokohama.
    Roger, when I posted #354 above the global totals from John Hopkins were 37,583 Infected, 814 dead and 2,848 recovered.

    Current totals are 40,547 Infected, 910 dead and 3,410 recovered while the ratio of Infected/dead continues to decrease and Recovered/dead continues to increase.

  30. #360
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    So it is still rising, and has been pretty stable for a few days at around 12 or 13%. So it seems it is neither peaking nor exploding.
    Jens, as per my previous post, the ratio of Infected/dead is decreasing and Recovered/dead is increasing and these trends have been consistent for at least the past few days.

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