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Thread: Disease and pandemics thread (because it's science)

  1. #571
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    The "common cold" isn't a specific disease entity--it's a set of symptoms caused by many kinds of virus, including coronaviruses.
    And please correct me if I’m wrong, but I think the symptoms are basically the same simply because they are not caused by the viruses really but by our defense mechanisms against such viral infections.


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    As above, so below

  2. #572
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    So the coronavirus gets in your community. Here are a few clues about what might happen.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/hea...en/ar-BB10tGD7
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/27/healt...ner/index.html
    Last edited by Roger E. Moore; 2020-Feb-27 at 11:57 PM.
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  3. #573
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    I checked...Dr. Siegel said, “muscle aches and fatigue” for flu symptoms, not temperature, contrary to my earlier post.
    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

  4. #574
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    WHO SITUATION IN NUMBERS total and new cases in last 24 hours

    Globally: 82,294 confirmed (1,185 new)

    China: 78,630 confirmed (439 new), 2,747 deaths (29 new)

    Outside of China 3,664 confirmed (746 new), 46 countries (9 new), 57 deaths (13 new)

    Note the difference between new cases in China and those outside China.

    Death rate in China: 0.0349 (CFR: 3.49%)
    Death rate outside China: 0.0155567 (CFR: 1.56% - going up quite a lot, probably not enough total cases counted)
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  5. #575
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    [b]

    Outside of China 3,664 confirmed (746 new), 46 countries (9 new), 57 deaths (13 new)
    So I'm wondering, what was the situation in China when the number of cases was about equivalent. For from the report on January 27:

    2741 cases (727 new), 80 deaths (24 new).

    The number of cases was actually a bit lower, but the growth rate was kind of equivalent. And now it is spreading much more slowly in China. So perhaps it seems that the number of cases rises rapidly at first in a given area, but then levels off as (I guess) people start to do things like cancel events and avoid going out.
    As above, so below

  6. #576
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    I find it against the odds for a virus that has never infected humans before in the history to be more contagious than viruses with past exposure and evolution.
    From what I remember reading at Wikipedia the Spanish flu killed 22% of the Persians but was very mild in China supposedly due to past exposure and built up immunity of the population.
    BTW as a Persian I can tell you it is a mistake to assume that Iran is a very hot place.
    It is currently 4 degrees Celsius in Tehran and probably much colder in some mountainous regions.
    Sri Lanka on the other hand is 26 degrees with a forecasted high of 32 degrees. It has stayed at the bottom of the list with 1 infection for a very long time now (I think more than a month).

  7. #577
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    Quote Originally Posted by a1call View Post
    I find it against the odds for a virus that has never infected humans before in the history to be more contagious than viruses with past exposure and evolution.
    I'm not sure why you are claiming that it is more contagious than other viruses. I think there are other viruses that are more contagious, like many common cold viruses, influenza, chickenpox for example.
    As above, so below

  8. #578
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    Acknowledged Jens. Thanks for the correction. However, I still think the CUVID-19 is too successful in spreading for a virus which has had no prior chance at evolving via natural selection in a brand new population namely humans. Granted it is not as infectious as the common cold with thousands of years of evolution among human subjects but it is still contagious enough for me personally to suspect that it might have had previous experience in doing so.
    Just my usual ATM opinion.

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    Were the four (IIRC) cold Coronavirus strains once as virulent as Covid-19, and evolved into milder forms?
    SHARKS (crossed out) MONGEESE (sic) WITH FRICKIN' LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

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    My understanding is that endemic viruses, like colds, mutate enough that we can catch them again but our antibodies are up to the task of controlling them in a reasonable time. Maybe Covid19 will become endemic, too soon to know. Random virus mutation will mostly reduce the virus' viability, that's why pandemics don't happen all the time.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

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    Quote Originally Posted by a1call View Post
    I find it against the odds for a virus that has never infected humans before in the history to be more contagious than viruses with past exposure and evolution.
    You need to avoid thinking of virus strains as discrete entities like mammal species. Just because a new viral strain is infecting humans doesn't mean that the virus has no "experience" of infecting humans. RNA viruses are promiscuous, swapping bits and pieces of their RNA/protein "toolkit" all the time. This coronavirus is likely assembled from parts of a virus strain that regularly infects humans, along with parts of a novel strain that has altered its virulence.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec View Post
    Were the four (IIRC) cold Coronavirus strains once as virulent as Covid-19, and evolved into milder forms?
    I guess we could try digging up the graves of people who are known to have died of mysterious epidemic killer illnesses that no longer exist (for instance, the English Sweats), looking for viral RNA. I can't think of another way to test that hypothesis, and it's not without its obvious drawbacks as a plan.

    Grant Hutchison

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    You might want to brace yourself before you check the stock market today.
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    I guess we could try digging up the graves of people who are known to have died of mysterious epidemic killer illnesses that no longer exist (for instance, the English Sweats), looking for viral RNA. I can't think of another way to test that hypothesis, and it's not without its obvious drawbacks as a plan.
    Like that time researchers were digging up the graves of US soldiers who were buried in frozen soil in Alaska after dying of Spanish influenza, then realized the virus might be active? Yeah, we got lucky then.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    You might want to brace yourself before you check the stock market today.
    I’ve decided to avoid monitoring my investments for a while. It’s mostly retirement-related, so I can hopefully ride it out.



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    Quote Originally Posted by Extravoice View Post
    I’ve decided to avoid monitoring my investments for a while. It’s mostly retirement-related, so I can hopefully ride it out.
    Best advice ever. It will get better. Just not right now.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Iran's COVID fatalities are at 34, implying 3,400 cases there instead of the claimed 388. One wonders if both the deaths and cases are underreported because of the poor quality of medical care.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Quote Originally Posted by a1call View Post
    I find it against the odds for a virus that has never infected humans before in the history to be more contagious than viruses with past exposure and evolution.
    We can have selection bias. We're talking about this virus precisely because it has been somewhat contagious.

    Maybe there have been 2,999 other viruses that have surfaced in recent years, barely infected anyone, and died out without even being noticed. In that case, this is a 1 in 3,000 event.

    Could be. We don't really know.
    A: "Things that are equal to the same are equal to each other"
    B: "The two sides of this triangle are things that are equal to the same"
    C: "If A and B are true, Z must be true"
    D: "If A and B and C are true, Z must be true"
    E: "If A and B and C and D are true, Z must be true"

    Therefore, Z: "The two sides of this triangle are equal to each other"

  19. #589
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Iran's COVID fatalities are at 34, implying 3,400 cases there instead of the claimed 388. One wonders if both the deaths and cases are underreported because of the poor quality of medical care.
    Maybe, but there is an argument that a good percentage may be getting it but not have symptoms or have mild symptoms easily confused with a cold or flu. In California there is a case of someone apparently picking it up in the community and they’re trying to track down who she could have gotten it from.

    Also, the patient wasn’t tested until after a number of days of treatment. Since they hadn’t been out of rhe country recently, they weren’t considered for testing, and testing resources are very limited. Finally someone managed to get them tested and now they are trying to track down who the patient had been in contact with.

    By the way, the patient is in the same hospital where I had a heart procedure done a few years ago (one of the major local hospitals), though their home town is a fair distance away.

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  20. #590
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    You might want to brace yourself before you check the stock market today.
    The current dump is probably driven by the same thing as the dump we had when COVID-19 first showed up as a significant problem in China--and that pretty much completely recovered. It's just one of the many hazards of running a wprld economy driven by panic or unreasonable optimism generated among a small group of people sitting at desks in air-conditioned offices.

    The impact on long-term economic growth remains to be seen over the next few months.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Quote Originally Posted by 21st Century Schizoid Man View Post
    We can have selection bias. We're talking about this virus precisely because it has been somewhat contagious.
    Yeah, like the whole "dolphins push drowning man to the shore" thing. We have no data on how often dolphins push drowning people out to sea.

    Grant Hutchison

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    In a disturbing NPR report, a woman from Osaka, Japan, is said to have caught COVID-19 twice. She was patient #8 at the end of January but is #148 now. Hope this is wrong. No reports from China like this?

    LATER: This seems to be true. She is a tour bus guide. So no post-disease immunity.
    Last edited by Roger E. Moore; 2020-Feb-28 at 03:50 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    LATER: This seems to be true. She is a tour bus guide. So no post-disease immunity.
    I would need to see very solid evidence before I would accept that. We’re in the early confused reporting stage so I wouldn’t take it too seriously.

    "The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." — Abraham Lincoln

    I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

    The Leif Ericson Cruiser

  24. #594
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    In a disturbing NPR report, a woman from Osaka, Japan, is said to have caught COVID-19 twice. She was patient #8 at the end of January but is #148 now. Hope this is wrong. No reports from China like this?

    LATER: This seems to be true. She is a tour bus guide. So no post-disease immunity.
    Twice in a month sounds like a relapse rather than catching it twice. Flu experience is that getting active too soon can bring on a relapse, often as bad as the first bout.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  25. #595
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    In a disturbing NPR report, a woman from Osaka, Japan, is said to have caught COVID-19 twice. She was patient #8 at the end of January but is #148 now. Hope this is wrong. No reports from China like this?

    LATER: This seems to be true. She is a tour bus guide. So no post-disease immunity.
    Deeply improbable in the presence of other more likely explanations, and in any case not something from which one could generalize. Keep calm. Carry on.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    You need to avoid thinking of virus strains as discrete entities like mammal species. Just because a new viral strain is infecting humans doesn't mean that the virus has no "experience" of infecting humans. RNA viruses are promiscuous, swapping bits and pieces of their RNA/protein "toolkit" all the time. This coronavirus is likely assembled from parts of a virus strain that regularly infects humans, along with parts of a novel strain that has altered its virulence.

    Grant Hutchison
    With that Wuhan virology laboratory so close to the food market, is it possible to look at the genome of the virus and either discover or rule out that it is bioengineered?
    SHARKS (crossed out) MONGEESE (sic) WITH FRICKIN' LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec View Post
    With that Wuhan virology laboratory so close to the food market, is it possible to look at the genome of the virus and either discover or rule out that it is bioengineered?
    I'm not going to participate in discussion of wild conspiracy theories.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Disease and pandemics thread (because it's science)

    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    In a disturbing NPR report, a woman from Osaka, Japan, is said to have caught COVID-19 twice. She was patient #8 at the end of January but is #148 now. Hope this is wrong. No reports from China like this?

    LATER: This seems to be true. She is a tour bus guide. So no post-disease immunity.
    Apparently some discharged patients in China are still testing positive albeit non infectious.
    https://reut.rs/2Vwvlie
    SHANGHAI/LONDON (Reuters) - A growing number of discharged coronavirus patients in China and elsewhere are testing positive after recovering, sometimes weeks after being allowed to leave the hospital, which could make the epidemic harder to eradicate.

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    WHO confirms a dog in Hong Kong tested weakly positive to COVID-19. Owner has virus too. News on multiple sites.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Quote Originally Posted by schlaugh View Post
    Apparently some discharged patients in China are still testing positive albeit non infectious.
    https://reut.rs/2Vwvlie
    The Osaka woman was complaining of a sore throat at readmission. Japan claims no one is released who tests positive for COVID-19, and exit testing is done twice.
    Last edited by Roger E. Moore; 2020-Feb-28 at 06:33 PM.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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