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Thread: Disease and pandemics thread (because it's science)

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    So I'm deducing that, since you've arrived at that conclusion, you haven't sought medical care for yourself or your loved ones, and are prepared to go gently into that good night as soon as you get appendicitis or bronchopneumonia. Good for you.

    Grant Hutchison
    Of course I use medical care, I try to survive. Although, in the long run, and I am talking decades and centuries, I think medical care makes the human species weak. We can only push off the inevitable for so long.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    Of course I use medical care, I try to survive. Although, in the long run, and I am talking decades and centuries, I think medical care makes the human species weak. We can only push off the inevitable for so long.
    Humans have been using medical care for as long as they have existed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Swift View Post
    Then I'm glad you don't run the system.

    I would be dead and my wife would be dead without modern medicine. As others have said, the best way to control population growth is by improving health and living conditions, not letting disease run rampant.
    My position is a fatalist. In the long run, no matter what we do, it doesn't make a difference. Eventually resources run out, we starve, fight for resources, or succumb to infection. Our intelligence can put off the inevitable for awhile. It wouldn't take much for modern medicine to be overwhelmed when a severe pandemic takes hold.
    I don't know about the current Wuhan virus. It seems plausible that it could get really bad, but like I said before, specific predictions about when and where bad microbiology will happen isn't possible. We only know that there will always be calamities and lots of them.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    Of course I use medical care, I try to survive. Although, in the long run, and I am talking decades and centuries, I think medical care makes the human species weak. We can only push off the inevitable for so long.
    I think pandemics make humanity weak.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Quote Originally Posted by Strange View Post
    Humans have been using medical care for as long as they have existed.
    It has only been the last couple centuries that we have used medical care that has made much of a difference in extending human life. Vaccines, antibiotics, intravenous fluids, adequate food supply. I would never ask people to leave the modern world. I'm just saying, control over our destiny is impossible. Evolution will go, where it goes. Trying to control population is a pretend game.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

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    Control over our destiny has limits but is far from impossible.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    A new CNN report says eldery people with preexisting conditions make up most fatalities. I am worried we are not getting trustworthy data. Infected and fatality numbers seem to double every day or two.
    Elderly people with preexisting conditions almost always make up most fatalities (slightly undermining any sort of "evolution in action" argument). And I'd say it's very early days to judge the future trajectory of infection and fatality rates - the quarantined population is huge, making the pool of people to be potentially infected huge, so it's probably unrealistic to expect to see an inflection point this early, even if control measures are working well.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    It has only been the last couple centuries that we have used medical care that has made much of a difference in extending human life.
    I'm not sure that is correct. There is considerable evidence of medical care among ancient and prehistoric peoples (brain surgery, traditional herbal drugs); I don't know of data as to how much they extended human life, either individually or to their societies as a whole, but there is evidence that at least some of the techniques allowed the patient to live after the treatment.

    Trying to control population is a pretend game.
    I don't know what that sentence means. What aspect of a population are you saying is uncontrollable?
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Elderly people with preexisting conditions almost always make up most fatalities (slightly undermining any sort of "evolution in action" argument). And I'd say it's very early days to judge the future trajectory of infection and fatality rates - the quarantined population is huge, making the pool of people to be potentially infected huge, so it's probably unrealistic to expect to see an inflection point this early, even if control measures are working well.

    Grant Hutchison
    The death rate does seem high. I read the swine flu in 2009 to 2010 killed 18,000.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    It has only been the last couple centuries that we have used medical care that has made much of a difference in extending human life.
    That doesn't make sense. If people have always been using medicines (and performing various medical procedures) to treat illnesses and injuries, then that must have extended life. Modern science has allowed us to do this better, but it is a qualitative change, not a quantitative one.

    I'm just saying, control over our destiny is impossible. Evolution will go, where it goes.
    That seems to contradict your suggestion that modern medical treatment will make the human race weak.

    Trying to control population is a pretend game.
    And yet, we know very well how to do that (mainly improved education and health). The average fertility rate has massively reduced, so population growth will flatten out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    Of course I use medical care, I try to survive. Although, in the long run, and I am talking decades and centuries, I think medical care makes the human species weak. We can only push off the inevitable for so long.
    Caring for our most vulnerable members makes us more than animals. We've made such efforts throughout our existence. And we've been pretty successful as a species by doing so.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

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    Pandemics are probably recent in evolution because we started travelling so much. The catastrophic demise in south America with the Spanish invasion, the black death,(rats did not make the long journeys) and the 1918 flu. Finally we are getting procedures of isolation and vaccines but a virus or superbug can shut down trade and travel. I wonder if this one will?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Control over our destiny has limits but is far from impossible.
    I look at directing one's life like a probability density. Certain actions are only so predictable, and the areas of low probability also occur. Except, life is not nearly so simple as a proton and electrons.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    Caring for our most vulnerable members makes us more than animals. We've made such efforts throughout our existence. And we've been pretty successful as a species by doing so.
    I agree that we have been taking care of vulnerable people forever, but the amount of elderly and disabled is way more than has ever happened and the amount of young people is going down at the same time due to low birth rates. I do not expect the same results as the past. I say this from pessimism, not by a desire to change things. Now there are very many creative people in the world, maybe somebody will invent a cheap drug to make elderly people capable of being productive.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Strange View Post
    That doesn't make sense. If people have always been using medicines (and performing various medical procedures) to treat illnesses and injuries, then that must have extended life. Modern science has allowed us to do this better, but it is a qualitative change, not a quantitative one.



    That seems to contradict your suggestion that modern medical treatment will make the human race weak.



    And yet, we know very well how to do that (mainly improved education and health). The average fertility rate has massively reduced, so population growth will flatten out.
    I think that, reliable food supply, antibiotics and vaccines, and clean surgeries are remarkably so much better healthcare than prior to their use, it was like healthcare never ever occurred, by comparison.
    I also see that we now have many immune suppressed people that much of what we do is to designed around immune suppression.
    You are right that the fertility rate is much lower. I'm sure that birth control has some credit here, I'm not sure that education is the cause of lower birth rate, but they are associated.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    Now there are very many creative people in the world, maybe somebody will invent a cheap drug to make elderly people capable of being productive.
    Is 64 elderly? I'm 64 and have a state job doing statistics. In fairness, I do take a lot of (medical) drugs.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I agree that we have been taking care of vulnerable people forever, but the amount of elderly and disabled is way more than has ever happened and the amount of young people is going down at the same time due to low birth rates. I do not expect the same results as the past. I say this from pessimism, not by a desire to change things. Now there are very many creative people in the world, maybe somebody will invent a cheap drug to make elderly people capable of being productive.
    And I'd put forth that the same advancing technology that allows for better and longer lives, also allows old, ill, and infirm individuals (I'm also disabled) to be more productive and creative. Physical ability is rapidly becoming less relevant as a part of ability to produce economically.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    And I'd put forth that the same advancing technology that allows for better and longer lives, also allows old, ill, and infirm individuals (I'm also disabled) to be more productive and creative. Physical ability is rapidly becoming less relevant as a part of ability to produce economically.
    I have ankylosing spondylitis and sometimes I am just writhing in pain, but I continue to work because I have to. I continue to have to work, so that I am forced to try and make my ankylosing spondylitis go away. Like Steve Jobs said. Stay hungry.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

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    New CNN active news link for coronavirus.

    https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/c...hnk/index.html
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I have ankylosing spondylitis and sometimes I am just writhing in pain, but I continue to work because I have to. I continue to have to work, so that I am forced to try and make my ankylosing spondylitis go away. Like Steve Jobs said. Stay hungry.
    Well, then you know what I was talking about. You continue to be productive despite an ailment.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

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    The coronavirus is giving us all extra experience for what to do when a REALLY bad virus, bacteria, etc. appears. The only (tarnished) silver living in the tornado cloud. Wonder how we would have handled the Black Death or the 1918 flu.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    Caring for our most vulnerable members makes us more than animals. We've made such efforts throughout our existence. And we've been pretty successful as a species by doing so.
    I agree with you except that I don't think that such behavior is unknown among other animals, though maybe just mammals. Elephants, for example, will try to revive a dying member of their group, and I think other apes do that as well. This is not to dispute your argument about human nature, which I agree with, but just to say that we are not the only species who can show such behavior.
    As above, so below

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    You are right that the fertility rate is much lower. I'm sure that birth control has some credit here, I'm not sure that education is the cause of lower birth rate, but they are associated.
    To some extent I think that the fertility rate falling is related to one of the features of our species, which is that we invest a lot into individual offspring. We care for offspring for like 12 or 13 years (nowadays often more like 28 or 30!), and so we are kind of programmed to do that. And nowadays, since we see a college degree as being somewhat of a necessity for success, and because we want our offspring to be successful, we end up spending a lot of money on each one (this is true for most advanced economies) and so can't afford to have more than two children. So it seems to be an individual choice that everybody is making.
    As above, so below

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    maybe somebody will invent a cheap drug to make elderly people capable of being productive.
    When you say "productive," do you mean capable of producing children, or do you mean economically?
    As above, so below

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    To some extent I think that the fertility rate falling is related to one of the features of our species, which is that we invest a lot into individual offspring. We care for offspring for like 12 or 13 years (nowadays often more like 28 or 30!), and so we are kind of programmed to do that. And nowadays, since we see a college degree as being somewhat of a necessity for success, and because we want our offspring to be successful, we end up spending a lot of money on each one (this is true for most advanced economies) and so can't afford to have more than two children. So it seems to be an individual choice that everybody is making.
    It is very expensive taking care of children, no doubt. In the US, taking care of a person in a nursing home is about 100,000 dollar a year.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    To some extent I think that the fertility rate falling is related to one of the features of our species, which is that we invest a lot into individual offspring. We care for offspring for like 12 or 13 years (nowadays often more like 28 or 30!), and so we are kind of programmed to do that. And nowadays, since we see a college degree as being somewhat of a necessity for success, and because we want our offspring to be successful, we end up spending a lot of money on each one (this is true for most advanced economies) and so can't afford to have more than two children. So it seems to be an individual choice that everybody is making.
    It is very expensive taking care of children, no doubt. In the US, taking care of a person in a nursing home is about 100,000 dollar a year.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    When you say "productive," do you mean capable of producing children, or do you mean economically?
    I mean economically productive and not needing total care.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    Trying to control population is a pretend game.
    When I say population control is a pretend game, I mean that it is futile, and trying to control births, by society is also futile. Humans can shape our world a lot, but we will eventually have resource limitations as has been forecasted since at least I have been young. Human ingenuity has put this off for awhile. Microbiology and resource limitations will eventually bring balance. I am sorry for the generations that will have to go through this. It is terrifying to think of.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    It is very expensive taking care of children, no doubt. In the US, taking care of a person in a nursing home is about 100,000 dollar a year.
    Is this practice universal? What is the situation in other societies?

    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I mean economically productive and not needing total care.
    Judging people solely by their economic productivity is, IMO, part of why our culture has fallen into the straits it's in. There are plenty of non-material benefits to individuals, even sick ones.

    And we all need help in our lives sometimes, we cannot survive without it, that's why we're social creatures in the first place; to help each other and thus raise the whole group up. Certainly we could not have accomplished all that civilization has without mutual aid.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    When I say population control is a pretend game, I mean that it is futile, and trying to control births, by society is also futile.
    As fascinating as that subject is, why not start a thread on it?
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

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