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Thread: Lion Air Flight 610 Crash

  1. #391
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    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    Well those nine points do not say much about pilot error and a lot about “inappropriate” design and information. Away from the report more robust language would be appropriate, i think, and class actions seem likely now.
    The accident investigation agencies used to use "pilot error" as their default cause, unless there was something rather obvious like a wing fell off during straight and level flight without any turbulence (they'd probably try, even in that case). They've gotten away from that, to actually investigating a) why the accident happened and b) if there were design issues that were the primary cause.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken G View Post
    True enough, he may leave with 60 million (https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/24/tech/...nce/index.html). Do these companies just exist to make insiders rich, even after they make dubious decisions? People complain about star athlete salaries, but they have to be the best in the world at what they do. What did Muilenberg have to be good at? He didn't even have to show good judgement about inserting kludges into his aircraft.
    This may be verging too close to the political boundaries of the forum, but the past few decades have seen the sort of adulation of chief executives that was once reserved for Egyptian pharaohs. We've seen dozens of executives severely damage the corporations and shareholder value and get millions in severance, followed by near-idolatry by pundits. I predict that within weeks Muilenberg will have a (ghost-written) book out about how it was his brilliance that save Boeing from the evil machinations of Airbus, the FAA, and Lockheed-Martin.
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  3. #393
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    The machinations of Airbus being to launch the A320NEO which got orders from American Airlines causing Boeing to lose control of their bowels.

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    Quote Originally Posted by swampyankee View Post
    The accident investigation agencies used to use "pilot error" as their default cause, unless there was something rather obvious like a wing fell off during straight and level flight without any turbulence (they'd probably try, even in that case).
    Iíve heard that before, but how long ago was that? In todayís world with flight recorders, it seems to me that in many cases it is fairly clear that it is pilot error, like in the Canares disaster, or something clearly that was out of their control, like JAL123. There are cases where itís a bit fuzzy, and in such cases there will be pressure from the manufacturer to emphasize pilot error. Are there recent cases where you think the pilots were unfairly blamed?


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I’ve heard that before, but how long ago was that? In today’s world with flight recorders, it seems to me that in many cases it is fairly clear that it is pilot error, like in the Canares disaster, or something clearly that was out of their control, like JAL123. There are cases where it’s a bit fuzzy, and in such cases there will be pressure from the manufacturer to emphasize pilot error. Are there recent cases where you think the pilots were unfairly blamed?


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    Certainly, it was de rigueur into the seventies for commercial flights and somewhat longer for general aviation.
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    How do things fly? This explains it all.

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  6. #396
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    Did anyone see the Boeing internal communication data dump that was made public this week?

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/09/busin...nts/index.html

    Would you put your family on a MAX simulator trained aircraft? I wouldn't.
    Whoof.

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    "Designed by clowns who were supervised by monkeys." Ouch. I am SO glad I retired in 2010. I wonder how much of the design was done in-house vs outsourced.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

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    It begins to look as if both of those crashes could be classed as avoidable, or to put it another way, should’ve been anticipated By standard practice of failure analysis. The assumption now that the sales drive to avoid having to retrain pilots was allowed to override engineering concerns and to withhold details from the FAA and the pilots, such as making the new feature much more powerful late in the development.. That’s really bad.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
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    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    It begins to look as if both of those crashes could be classed as avoidable, or to put it another way, should’ve been anticipated By standard practice of failure analysis. The assumption now that the sales drive to avoid having to retrain pilots was allowed to override engineering concerns and to withhold details from the FAA and the pilots, such as making the new feature much more powerful late in the development.. That’s really bad.
    And to continue the obfuscation even after it caused a fatal crash by attempting to spin it as "pilot error".

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    There are cases where far-above average pilot skills saved or mitigated an otherwise disastrous situation, e.g. the Sioux City, Iowa crash (https://yarchive.net/air/airliners/dc10_sioux_city.html). There were also many situations where design flaws made pilot error much more likely. One case was the EMB-120. For ground handling, most turboprop propellers switch to a fixed-pitch mode when the condition lever (or power lever; turboprops don't have throttles) is moved below the flight idle position. Just about all turboprop aircraft -- except the EMB-120 -- have a squat switch (or weight-on-wheels switch) to ignore a pilot's command to the engine to go below flight idle. The EMB-120 did not have this switch, so when the pilot moved the condition lever below flight idle, the propeller stopped being RPM-governed and moved to a pre-set low pitch setting. When this happened the propeller started to windmill, causing very high drag. At something over 100% rpm, which the engine would reach is a very few seconds, the engine overspeed trip goes off, shutting fuel off to the engine, but the propeller keeps driving the turbine, past its structural limits. The airplane now has an airbrake on one wing, probably far from sufficient rudder control to maintain stable flight, and quite a lot of drag.
    Last edited by swampyankee; 2020-Jan-12 at 02:54 AM.
    Information about American English usage here. Floating point issues? Please read this before posting.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    "Designed by clowns who were supervised by monkeys." Ouch. I am SO glad I retired in 2010. I wonder how much of the design was done in-house vs outsourced.
    My experience is that it usually takes some highly skilled person to stay ahead of problems, designing something cheaper, safer, higher quality, more idiot proof, more environmentally friendly, easy to implement, easy to see the benefits in an understandable way. If someone like this doesn't exist, then autocratic bosses will implement something that causes severe problems only to find out these problems down the road. A lot of times, there is no incentive to be that creative person who can accomplish all of this, only lots of people trying to survive or climb the corporate ladder.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

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    Given that corporate culture, one wonders why so many people think the free market does everything the best way.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken G View Post
    Given that corporate culture, one wonders why so many people think the free market does everything the best way.
    I wonder how many people say it and really understand what they are saying. Because I donít think that there are any actual societies where there are rules, like insider trading rules or antitrust rules, that are intended to redress issues that emerge from a free market. Not to mention things like requirements for things like doctors licenses, which are clearly anti free market.


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    It really isn't looking very good for Boeing, is it? What with the MCAS problems, blanking cockpit screens,
    a Mission Elapsed Timer in the Starliner capsule that somehow got 11 hours ahead of the mission and also a Pad abort test where one of the parachutes failed to deploy due to faulty rigging. Some of the statements about these incidents are worrying signals of an attitude problem. For example the pin problem on the parachute was initially dismissed with "well the system on the crewed module is slightly different anyway so don't read to much into this failure" and "the capsule only needs two chutes to land safely, so we view this as a success".
    An interesting take on the problems Boeing are facing as a company is expounded here.

    I think the most worrying aspect of these issues is the evident lack of simple quality control in both procedures and mechanical assembly. It's almost embarrassing to read. While I don't doubt that some of these problems are to be expected in high tech production and Boeing isn't unique in having them, as a potential user of their equipment I would be a little hesitant. Imagine being a nasa astronaut slated to be on the first crewed test of the Starliner? Blasť excuses and backhanded company press releases make them look disinterested and comically inept.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    My experience is that it usually takes some highly skilled person to stay ahead of problems, designing something cheaper, safer, higher quality, more idiot proof, more environmentally friendly, easy to implement, easy to see the benefits in an understandable way. If someone like this doesn't exist, then autocratic bosses will implement something that causes severe problems only to find out these problems down the road. A lot of times, there is no incentive to be that creative person who can accomplish all of this, only lots of people trying to survive or climb the corporate ladder.
    the scandal is that procedures exist to avoid needing a highly skilled all rounder, although that helps. you take each element and predict the effect of it breaking. in the MCAS case, the sole sensor flap becomes a primary safety part like the bolt holding the engine to the wing. unlike the bolt, the flap has clear failure modes, such as from bird strike. They missed that or they were over-ruled. Either way, bad.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

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    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    the scandal is that procedures exist to avoid needing a highly skilled all rounder, although that helps. you take each element and predict the effect of it breaking. in the MCAS case, the sole sensor flap becomes a primary safety part like the bolt holding the engine to the wing. unlike the bolt, the flap has clear failure modes, such as from bird strike. They missed that or they were over-ruled. Either way, bad.
    In Boeing they would need hundreds of people staying ahead of the herd, but I am sure their processes eventually weeded out most of these very talented people.
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    Good news! You won't be flying on a B-737 MAX anytime soon, if ever.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/20/busin...urn/index.html
    Do good work. óVirgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    The FAA has had their fingers burned and foreign confidence in them is justifiably shaken, so they naturally are going over everything with a fine-toothed comb. As my retired engineer friend said, the software is complex, and those involved in the fix are trying to do in a year what should have been debugged over the period of several years between project launch and first commercial flight.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Good news! You won't be flying on a B-737 MAX anytime soon, if ever.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/20/busin...urn/index.html
    I donít know if I would call that good news. Certainly, it should get appropriate and reasonable levels of testing, but I have little doubt the FAA is going overboard now for CYA purposes. Any hint whatsoever that they might have missed something else would be used against them.

    I would have no concern getting on a 737 max after this point because Boeing knows that they have to get it right now or they could lose the company. I donít expect them to reintroduce it with still serious problems.

    Iím more interested to hear what Boeing is doing to change corporate culture for future plane development not in the spotlight. I expect they are making changes, itís just a question if they are making the right ones, and if theyíll keep at it five years down the road after this has died down.

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    The whole fiasco has been a case study in how not to run an engineering project. Let's hope the lesson is well learned, and not just by Boeing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken G View Post
    The whole fiasco has been a case study in how not to run an engineering project. Let's hope the lesson is well learned, and not just by Boeing.
    I hope so, it's a tough lesson about letting financial pressure affect your decisions. Investors as well as airlines are giving up on Boeing. How many more technical issues? What is the passenger psychology effect of social media?
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    "Designed by clowns who were supervised by monkeys." Ouch. I am SO glad I retired in 2010. I wonder how much of the design was done in-house vs outsourced.
    Yikes! That one's not going to sound so good in court.
    A: "Things that are equal to the same are equal to each other"
    B: "The two sides of this triangle are things that are equal to the same"
    C: "If A and B are true, Z must be true"
    D: "If A and B and C are true, Z must be true"
    E: "If A and B and C and D are true, Z must be true"

    Therefore, Z: "The two sides of this triangle are equal to each other"

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    Quote Originally Posted by 21st Century Schizoid Man View Post
    Yikes! That one's not going to sound so good in court.
    What court?

    Unless one of the plaintiffs suing Boeing and the airlines demands a court trial itís unlikely any of this will land in a court of law.

    Congress has already raked Boeing and the FAA over the coals so even that venue is not in play (although more hearings are possible).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    "Designed by clowns who were supervised by monkeys." Ouch. I am SO glad I retired in 2010. I wonder how much of the design was done in-house vs outsourced.
    There can always be whiners. But my experience with the Toyota plan is that it is either just a dictated result or non technical people making shoot from the hip judgements.
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    Aaah, Toyota! When I worked at Boeing one of many Management-Fads-Of-The-Month was the worship of all things Toyota. Which they didn't really understand and implemented badly.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

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    As I recall Toyota introduced Kanban and Just in time thinking, they might also have introduced zero defects strategy but not sure. I saw the last being introduced into a production plant. It involves stopping the line for every fault however minor. Then no restart until that fault is fixed. The case I witnessed was comical for the first month, nothing was made, but then it started to work and after a few months the quality scores were 100%. All these management innovations require absolute commitment but they are all good. However i have found not much use in an R and D environment. Seeing the pressure on schedules at Boeing, I would expect all three to be very hard to implement properly. Failure analysis was in place well before the Toyota craze. Pity it got trampled.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  27. #417
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    There was a saying:
    At Boeing, quality is King. But the schedule is God.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  28. #418
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken G View Post
    Given that corporate culture, one wonders why so many people think the free market does everything the best way.
    Obviously everything is an evolution with many dead ends and explosions along the way. There is alway room for regulation, but in corporate culture, it seems that free speech is no where to be found. Free speech results in being fired or ignored. Competition in the free market is fierce and many corners are cut due to this fierce competition. Some protection from total free market is valuable.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  29. #419
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    Some protection from total free market is valuable.
    Such as the FAA?

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    Sure, when it does its job and isn't the foxes watching the henhouse. The case study of how the FAA handled the MAX seems much more like the latter.

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