Page 15 of 19 FirstFirst ... 51314151617 ... LastLast
Results 421 to 450 of 545

Thread: What do you think is the most likely explanation for the Fermi paradox?

  1. #421
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Nowhere (middle)
    Posts
    36,941
    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    The link was already given in post 410.
    Cosmocrazy's documentary?
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  2. #422
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    13,698
    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    Cosmocrazy's documentary?
    I'm sorry, I don't understand. Cosmocrazy was (in my understanding) giving their description of the paper that was mentioned in post 410. I'm not sure what you are asking for a link to. But perhaps I am misunderstanding and Cosmorazy was talking about something else. Perhaps they can clarify.
    As above, so below

  3. #423
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Nowhere (middle)
    Posts
    36,941
    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I'm sorry, I don't understand. Cosmocrazy was (in my understanding) giving their description of the paper that was mentioned in post 410. I'm not sure what you are asking for a link to. But perhaps I am misunderstanding and Cosmorazy was talking about something else. Perhaps they can clarify.
    Cosmocrazy said in post #404:
    Quote Originally Posted by cosmocrazy View Post
    I was watching a documentary on abiogenesis, interestingly there is not enough evidence to make any definitive conclusion on the odds of it occurring and developing into intelligent life. They went on to say that some studies suggest the odds could be as little as 1 in 1027 which means there could be significantly less chance of life ever developing into intelligent life than there are stars in the observable universe.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  4. #424
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    13,698
    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    Cosmocrazy said in post #404:
    Got it. There were kind of two threads going on in parallel, and I got mixed up.
    As above, so below

  5. #425
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Posts
    5,583
    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I'm sorry, I don't understand. Cosmocrazy was (in my understanding) giving their description of the paper that was mentioned in post 410. I'm not sure what you are asking for a link to. But perhaps I am misunderstanding and Cosmorazy was talking about something else. Perhaps they can clarify.
    Yes I was referring to the documentary I watched which I will try and find a link to it, it was a programme I watched a while back on one of the science channels on Sky but I can't recall what the name of the actual programme was or what sort of date it was filmed. But the link in post #410 is what caught my attention and prompted me to post about the documentary since it was basically the same approach as this.

  6. #426
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Nowhere (middle)
    Posts
    36,941
    Quote Originally Posted by cosmocrazy View Post
    But the link in post #410 is what caught my attention and prompted me to post about the documentary since it was basically the same approach as this.
    "Inspired by actual events"
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  7. #427
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Posts
    5,583
    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    "Inspired by actual events"
    Yes, I'm intrigued by just what factors and how many are required for the universe being able to evolve to a point where it is self aware in the form of life like humans. When you start to think about the factors involved in us ever existing it starts to blow your mind and you soon realise that the odds of us ever existing is extremely low, so low in fact some would consider it a miracle.

  8. #428
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Nowhere (middle)
    Posts
    36,941
    Quote Originally Posted by cosmocrazy View Post
    Yes, I'm intrigued by just what factors and how many are required for the universe being able to evolve to a point where it is self aware in the form of life like humans. When you start to think about the factors involved in us ever existing it starts to blow your mind and you soon realise that the odds of us ever existing is extremely low, so low in fact some would consider it a miracle.
    I think that the observable Universe is just a tiny speck of what's out there, far beyond our light horizon. The number of stars may well be uncountable by our current math. So I'm not sure I'd call it a miracle, just trial and error on unimaginable scales.

    Unfortunately those same scales would also preclude unrelated minds ever meeting, too separated in time and space. It's my view that we'll probably not encounter any other thinking beings not of our own origin. I'd love to be wrong though!

    ADDED: I mean, recognizably thinking. We may very well discover complex life that does something like thinking, but not close enough to communicate meaningfully. Not really minds, by whatever the definition of that is.
    Last edited by Noclevername; 2019-Jun-14 at 02:24 PM.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  9. #429
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    13,698
    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    I think that the observable Universe is just a tiny speck of what's out there, far beyond our light horizon. The number of stars may well be uncountable by our current math.
    Naively, I would say that if it is finite, it surely is countable by our current math. All you need to do is add zeroes. If itís infinite, then you canít count it.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    As above, so below

  10. #430
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    13,698
    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    Unfortunately those same scales would also preclude unrelated minds ever meeting, too separated in time and space. It's my view that we'll probably not encounter any other thinking beings not of our own origin. I'd love to be wrong though!
    I basically feel the same way there. The scales are just so large compared to what we are used to. Sometimes people compare it to crossing the oceans, but the vastness is really on a different scale.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    As above, so below

  11. #431
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    The Valley of the Sun
    Posts
    9,472
    We should never have invented parsecs and light years. When something is only a one or two digit number of units away, it makes it sound close. If we had kept using only miles and kilometers, we wouldn't forget how far away the stars are.

  12. #432
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    2,474
    Quote Originally Posted by swampyankee View Post
    Since I'm not a statistician, could somebody quantify the probability of abiogenesis if we find, say, solid evidence of an independent start of life on Mars?
    I can't put a number on it. But it will be nearer to 100% than 1 in 10^27.

    BTW, we should hope there is no independently-started life on Mars. If there is, it means the great filter could be ahead of us instead of behind us.

    Then again I am just waiting for all the arguments when some life is eventually found on Mars. How do you prove that it started independently of Earth life?

  13. #433
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    2,474
    Quote Originally Posted by Chuck View Post
    Maybe natural selection removes the desire that people have to explore and colonize once they've populated their entire planet. Such a desire would no longer be beneficial with nowhere left to go except into space which is so expensive that it might as well not be there for most of the population. So even after they're able to move out into space, none of them cares to do so.
    At some point in the future these things will happen:

    1. Human lifespan extended to centuries or more

    2. Humans can be grown from embryos artificially and raised by robots

    3. The sun will expand into a red giant.

    All will make it more attractive to move out into space.

  14. #434
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Nowhere (middle)
    Posts
    36,941
    Quote Originally Posted by kzb View Post
    How do you prove that it started independently of Earth life?
    DNA analysis can often determine common ancestry and compatibility in Earth life. We share a good fraction of our genome with even simple bacteria and archaea. If it isn't related to us, it won't have alleles in common. Independent life could also use different amino acids, we have only 20 while many more exist.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  15. #435
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Nowhere (middle)
    Posts
    36,941
    Quote Originally Posted by kzb View Post
    At some point in the future these things will happen:

    1. Human lifespan extended to centuries or more

    2. Humans can be grown from embryos artificially and raised by robots

    3. The sun will expand into a red giant.

    All will make it more attractive to move out into space.
    Assuming we don't die off, 1 will definitely happen. 3 is a foregone conclusion barring stellar engineering. 2 is ...probably not a good idea. What hot mess would a human raised by a robot be like? We know machines don't handle human activities like humans do. Do you want Watson in charge of your kid?
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  16. #436
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Nowhere (middle)
    Posts
    36,941
    Quote Originally Posted by Chuck View Post
    Maybe natural selection removes the desire that people have to explore and colonize once they've populated their entire planet. Such a desire would no longer be beneficial with nowhere left to go except into space which is so expensive that it might as well not be there for most of the population. So even after they're able to move out into space, none of them cares to do so.
    Natural selection takes many generations to deal with removal of traits, unless those traits result in death or inability to breed. A species with successful explorers will have explorers in their population for a long time... assuming that exploration and colonization were hereditary traits, which they don't seem to be in our species at least. Ask Genghis Khan's grandkids if the acorn doesn't always fall far from the tree. He was lean and hungry, they were fat and happy.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  17. #437
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Earth
    Posts
    10,253
    Quote Originally Posted by kzb View Post
    I can't put a number on it. But it will be nearer to 100% than 1 in 10^27.

    BTW, we should hope there is no independently-started life on Mars. If there is, it means the great filter could be ahead of us instead of behind us.

    Then again I am just waiting for all the arguments when some life is eventually found on Mars. How do you prove that it started independently of Earth life?
    How? If it doesn’t use DNA or uses different bases for codons. Opposite chirality would also be a strong indicator
    Information about American English usage here and here. Floating point issues? Please read this before posting.

    How do things fly? This explains it all.

    Actually they can't: "Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible." - Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.



  18. #438
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    2,474
    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    I think that the observable Universe is just a tiny speck of what's out there, far beyond our light horizon. The number of stars may well be uncountable by our current math. So I'm not sure I'd call it a miracle, just trial and error on unimaginable scales.

    Unfortunately those same scales would also preclude unrelated minds ever meeting, too separated in time and space. It's my view that we'll probably not encounter any other thinking beings not of our own origin. I'd love to be wrong though!

    ADDED: I mean, recognizably thinking. We may very well discover complex life that does something like thinking, but not close enough to communicate meaningfully. Not really minds, by whatever the definition of that is.
    The big bang had a finite mass. The universe has a mass budget -even the number of baryons is known.

  19. #439
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    2,474
    Quote Originally Posted by swampyankee View Post
    How? If it doesn’t use DNA or uses different bases for codons. Opposite chirality would also be a strong indicator
    But what if it doesn't have these things ? What if it has both similarities and differences ? What then?

  20. #440
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    2,474
    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    DNA analysis can often determine common ancestry and compatibility in Earth life. We share a good fraction of our genome with even simple bacteria and archaea. If it isn't related to us, it won't have alleles in common. Independent life could also use different amino acids, we have only 20 while many more exist.
    What if it doesn't have many differences? What do you conclude then ? How many differences are needed to positively conclude it is independent ?

  21. #441
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Earth
    Posts
    10,253
    Quote Originally Posted by kzb View Post
    What if it doesn't have many differences? What do you conclude then ? How many differences are needed to positively conclude it is independent ?
    Quote Originally Posted by kzb View Post
    But what if it doesn't have these things ? What if it has both similarities and differences ? What then?
    There will be a vast number of arguments, for many years.
    Information about American English usage here and here. Floating point issues? Please read this before posting.

    How do things fly? This explains it all.

    Actually they can't: "Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible." - Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.



  22. #442
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Nowhere (middle)
    Posts
    36,941
    Quote Originally Posted by kzb View Post
    The big bang had a finite mass. The universe has a mass budget -even the number of baryons is known.
    The observable Universe has a known mass budget. Important distinction.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  23. #443
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    2,474
    Quote Originally Posted by swampyankee View Post
    There will be a vast number of arguments, for many years.
    That's exactly what I am saying.

  24. #444
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    2,474
    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    The observable Universe has a known mass budget. Important distinction.
    Did the big bang have infinite mass?

  25. #445
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Earth
    Posts
    10,253
    Quote Originally Posted by kzb View Post
    That's exactly what I am saying.
    This would be much more interesting than "yep, independent origin, absolutely," which could do wonders for science funding and popular interest.
    Information about American English usage here and here. Floating point issues? Please read this before posting.

    How do things fly? This explains it all.

    Actually they can't: "Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible." - Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.



  26. #446
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Nowhere (middle)
    Posts
    36,941
    Quote Originally Posted by kzb View Post
    Did the big bang have infinite mass?
    That is not determined. It may never be.

    https://phys.org/news/2015-03-univer...-infinite.html

    Whether the Universe is finite or infinite is an important question, and either outcome is mindblenderingly fun. So far, astronomers have no idea what the answer is, but they're working towards it and maybe someday they'll be able to tell us.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  27. #447
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    Wellington, New Zealand
    Posts
    4,216
    Quote Originally Posted by kzb View Post
    Then again I am just waiting for all the arguments when some life is eventually found on Mars. How do you prove that it started independently of Earth life?
    The arguments may be the other way around, kzb. We have found meteorites from Mars on Earth. If some life is eventually found on Mars, how do we determine that we are not "Martians"?
    It may be from timing - where life appeared first. It may be from DNA - Martian DNA with no commonality with terrestrial DNA is likely to be independent. It may be from considering how life could be transported between Mars and Earth (my guess is that it would be harder for impacts on Earth to put meteorites on Mars). There is a (probably remote) possibility of finding Martian life not based on DNA or on a DNA-variant and thus independent.

  28. #448
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    3,199
    In the realm of Real Science...

    https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.07750
    The Breakthrough Listen Search for Intelligent Life: Observations of 1327 Nearby Stars over 1.10-3.45 GHz
    Danny C. Price, et al. (Submitted on 18 Jun 2019)

    Results: None. No Kardashev Type I's so far.

  29. #449
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Nowhere (middle)
    Posts
    36,941
    Quote Originally Posted by kzb View Post
    What if it doesn't have many differences? What do you conclude then ? How many differences are needed to positively conclude it is independent ?
    If it doesn't have many differences, then it indicates (not concludes) a shared origin.

    I think it depends more on the nature of the differences than how many. A judgement call.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  30. #450
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Nowhere (middle)
    Posts
    36,941
    Quote Originally Posted by kzb View Post
    The big bang had a finite mass. The universe has a mass budget -even the number of baryons is known.
    Even if the Universe is finite, it's still almost certainly much, much larger than what we can sense from our little corner of existence. We know the Universe is fairly consistent in its texture. So, similar large scale patterns of galaxy walls, streams, and voids probably exist all over. And we know the gravity from outside our visible horizon is net zero in any direction, so it is probably similar in a spherical shell extending very far outward from here.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •