Check out this AAVSO chart going back to 1911.
https://www.aavso.org/sites/default/...betelgeuse.jpg
There are a few faintings of similar magnitude if we look back far enough. If the AASVO observers are right, it would appear that some of the reports linked here are mistaken if they say this is the faintest it has ever been.
Their claim that a 100K temp. drop and a 9% radial increase will produce their claim for the 75% bol. luminosity change is obviously flawed.
It appears they swapped numerator for denominator in their radius change equation. Correcting for this shows a 16% reduction in radius.
As they note, however, the "fainting episode" may be due [in part] to expelled gas. [Hmmm, nope I won't do it!]
Wouldn't the line data reveal the extent of the extinctions?
We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.
For any Tweeps out there, there's a bot account called Betelgeuse Status (@betelbot) that posts +/- daily plots based on previous days' observations of Betelgeuse's magnitude.
https://twitter.com/betelbot
CJSF
Last edited by CJSF; 2020-Jan-28 at 05:57 PM. Reason: weird wording
"The sun is a quagmire
It's not made of fire
Forget what you've been told in the past
Electrons are free
(Plasma!) Fourth state of matter
Not gas, not liquid, not solid"
-They Might Be Giants, "Why Does The Sun Really Shine?"
lonelybirder.org
We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.
Some (very) preliminary observational evidence that the "fainting" may be ending.
https://twitter.com/chmn_victor/stat...50793121153024
Minimum mag seems to have been 1.64, in line with at least some predictions, a day or two ago. Sure, it's only one or two data points, but if you read the thread and see the plots, it's compelling. But we'll have to wait some more time to verify any trend.
CJSF
"The sun is a quagmire
It's not made of fire
Forget what you've been told in the past
Electrons are free
(Plasma!) Fourth state of matter
Not gas, not liquid, not solid"
-They Might Be Giants, "Why Does The Sun Really Shine?"
lonelybirder.org
I went to the AAVSO site (aavso.org) and selected Plot A Light Curve from the menu on the far right, and looked at Betelgeuse for the last year or so. It breaks down the estimates into several bands. There seems to be the least uncertainty in the blue band, which seems to show that the fainting may be slowing, but it will probably get a little fainter before it starts getting brighter again (The UV band seems to agree, but there is less data there). The writers in the twitter feed CJSF points to were relying on statistically small sampling. In any case this looks like a good place to go for daily updates on Betelgeuse.
Forming opinions as we speak
It's amazing to look up at Orion and see Betelgeuse struggling to beat Bellatrix, now matched at 1.64 mag., as well as stay ahead of the belt stars (eg Alnilam at 1.69).
If in Galileo's time, he might have added Betelgeuse to his list of observable arguments opposing the peripatetic (Aristotelian) philosophers.
We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.
It's winter in the Pacific Northwest. I'd be amazed to be able to look up at Orion at all.
Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.
I attempted to save you the trouble, but the cloud bank was moving too quick for me to get on a tripod, though the streaking produces better color, I suppose.
Fainting Betelgeuse.jpg
We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.
It's still brightening, about 1% of it's average/usual brigthness per day over the past several days. I'm not sure exactly how that's calculated, it being a variable star... Here's the latest graph in that regard.
https://twitter.com/betelbot/status/1223321097745174531
CJSF
"The sun is a quagmire
It's not made of fire
Forget what you've been told in the past
Electrons are free
(Plasma!) Fourth state of matter
Not gas, not liquid, not solid"
-They Might Be Giants, "Why Does The Sun Really Shine?"
lonelybirder.org
I have heard that this star may have eaten a companion:
https://www.space.com/35084-betelgeu...-cannibal.html
Now this is far fetched--but could the variability be from one star orbiting within the envelope of the other?
Today, it looks like it is brightening (within the error bars of small sample statistics) in the red wavelengths, but still dimming slightly in the blue.
Forming opinions as we speak
After my own observations last night with a C-8 Schimt-Cass, Betelgeuse seemed to be equal to +1.6 Bellatrix. And looking at AAVSO for the first couple of days of February, still seems to be creeping down slowly.
https://www.aavso.org/apps/webobs/re...um_results=200
I admire you for going out and trying to compare it to Bellatrix, and perhaps the belt stars. I used the AAVSO build a light curve tool. It is reporting fewer extremely low brightnesses in the red, making the red average go up. Over all, the brightness has been around 1.65 to 1.60 for ten days or so. That may or may not be long enough to claim a trend.
Forming opinions as we speak
I've noticed on AAVSO, that visual observer's tend to be a little all over the place. Mags from +1.3 to +1.7. But today most reports were below +1.5. Next couple of weeks should be interesting.
I don't want to sound like I have a strongly informed opinion about this because I don't. Here's my weakly informed opinion: Yes, the light we see coming from Betelgeuse is the light escaping from its very wide (geometrically) thin (density) photosphere, as filtered by whatever dust and gas layer it has emitted relatively recently. I haven't personally seen anything about the changing fine spectral details, only the various magnitudes of the pass bands. That being said, I think a model using dust extinction might explain it, but I think more likely, an expansion of the photosphere and associated drop in temperature associated with the ideal gas law might also explain this. A close look at the spectrum might tell more, but I don't know enough to interpret even if I saw the spectra. I'd also like to see some interferometric images to see how the size and shape have changed during this event. Let's hope for a paper on the topic!
Forming opinions as we speak
Seems they're expecting the fainting to stop February 20th, +- 7 days.
http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=13439
Probably not statistically important, but the blue magnitude ticked up a small fraction for the first time since careful measurement of the fainting began. This happened a few hours after a low outlier visual magnitude of 2.0 was reported for the first time.
Forming opinions as we speak
The Betelbot reports via Miguel Montarges that the European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope observed and will take measurements of Betelgeuse's diameter using adaptive optics and IR interferometry to see if there's been any significant change.
https://twitter.com/Astro_MiguelM/st...26557017673728
CJSF
"The sun is a quagmire
It's not made of fire
Forget what you've been told in the past
Electrons are free
(Plasma!) Fourth state of matter
Not gas, not liquid, not solid"
-They Might Be Giants, "Why Does The Sun Really Shine?"
lonelybirder.org
I saw earlier that the visible % estimate was down to 34 today... I know it's still not truly "unprecedented" but it would be "fun" if the models are wrong and this continued slow decline does surprise us with a bang!
CJSF
P.S.
I know... not likely...
"The sun is a quagmire
It's not made of fire
Forget what you've been told in the past
Electrons are free
(Plasma!) Fourth state of matter
Not gas, not liquid, not solid"
-They Might Be Giants, "Why Does The Sun Really Shine?"
lonelybirder.org
I predict a major outburst in June, when Betelgeuse is behind the Sun and no one will notice.