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Thread: Stephen Hawking last work

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    Stephen Hawking last work

    According to online Stephen Hawking predicted the end of the universe in his last paper. How did he state it would happen and When was his prediction for? Looking for more information but cannot find what he predicted and when?

    Also he claimed the life in earth would end because AI would take over, when was this predicted to happen.
    Last edited by Sinbad; 2020-Jan-23 at 09:58 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinbad View Post
    According to online Stephen Hawking predicted the end of the universe in his last paper. When was his prediction for? Looking for more information but cannot find what he predicted and when?

    Also he claimed the life in earth would end because AI would take over, when was this predicted to happen.
    Hawking's last paper was about black holes. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/23/s...nal-paper.html

    I am not aware of anything about the end of the world, so you would need to be more specific.

    Hawking is one of those people who think AI will be smarter than humans and take over the world. I am extremely sceptical, for various reasons. As it is an entirely speculative idea about technology that doesn't exist (and may never exist) it is not possible to put any sort of timescale on it.

    I would stop worrying about the end of the world. It isn't going to happen for billions of years. Although climate change could make things uncomfortable before then.

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    Stephen Hawking last work

    Hawking coauthored a paper with Thomas Hertog published in July 2017 called A Smooth Exit From Eternal Inflation? in which he posits a smooth universe (and presumably heat death).

    https://link.springer.com/article/10...HEP04(2018)147

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    Quote Originally Posted by schlaugh View Post
    Hawking coauthored a paper with Thomas Hertog published in July 2017 called A Smooth Exit From Eternal Inflation? in which he posits a smooth universe (and presumably heat death).

    https://link.springer.com/article/10...HEP04(2018)147

    That is the one I read about

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    Stephen Hawking last work

    Sinbad, the paper was revised in April 2018. The original was submitted in July 2017. So...not two weeks before his death.

    ETA: and these news sources all leave out a significant element of the paperís title - the question mark. Why, I donít know.

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    Sorry the articles claims 2 weeks before his death. So what is he implying and when?

    I was understanding he has never been proven wrong?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinbad View Post
    ... Also he claimed the life in earth would end because AI would take over, when was this predicted to happen.
    This is not his area of expertise. This is just a smart person talking through his hat. In my opinion AI is a potential problem if we do it badly, but will probably not be a threat for another 40 years at least, and hopefully never. As to Hawking, let's treat his work on black holes and the big bang seriously.
    Forming opinions as we speak

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    Ok so what are his predictions for end of universe before he died and what was the implied timeframe?

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    "In it he predicted that the universe would eventually end when stars run out of energy."

    Stars will not not run out of energy for billions and billions of years. This is the standard "heat death" of the universe.

    But skimming through the paper (most of which is way over my head) it doesn't appear to have anything to do with the end of the universe. As I understand it, it is about the beginning of the universe; that inflation before the big bang would not result in a multiverse.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinbad View Post
    I was understanding he has never been proven wrong?
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/...ing-wrong.html

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    This might be exactly the wrong thing to do, but as you seem to be obsessed with the end of the universe, you might want to read the new book by astrophysicist Katie Mack:

    The Universe had a beginning, and it will have an end. Modern cosmology — the study of the nature and evolution of the cosmos itself — has allowed physicists to explain the history of the Universe from the first tiny fraction of a second until today. But what’s next? We now have the tools to extend our knowledge into the distant future and speculate about the ultimate fate of all reality.
    The End of Everything (Astrophysically Speaking)
    http://www.astrokatie.com/book

    Note: "distant future"

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    And what does distant mean? Basically in our lifetime?

    Basically the universe could end at any moment is what the book comments say?

    [Dr. Katie Mack has been contemplating these questions since she was eighteen, when her astronomy professor first informed her the universe could end at any moment, setting her on the path toward theoretical astrophysics.

    And stil not sure what and when Hawking predicted about the end
    Last edited by Sinbad; 2020-Jan-23 at 11:05 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinbad View Post
    And what does distant mean? Basically in our lifetime?
    No. In the lifetime of the universe. Billions of billions of years. (Have you noticed that this is the answer every time you ask?)

    And stil not sure what and when Hawking predicted about the end
    Me neither.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinbad View Post
    And what does distant mean? Basically in our lifetime?

    Basically the universe could end at any moment is what the book comments say?

    [Dr. Katie Mack has been contemplating these questions since she was eighteen, when her astronomy professor first informed her the universe could end at any moment, setting her on the path toward theoretical astrophysics.

    And stil not sure what and when Hawking predicted about the end

    But she wrote can happen at any time?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinbad View Post
    And what does distant mean? Basically in our lifetime?

    Basically the universe could end at any moment is what the book comments say?

    [Dr. Katie Mack has been contemplating these questions since she was eighteen, when her astronomy professor first informed her the universe could end at any moment, setting her on the path toward theoretical astrophysics.

    And stil not sure what and when Hawking predicted about the end
    Stars that form in the future would have to use up all of their fuel for the heat death scenario of the end of the universe. Between 1-100 trillion years to reach that benchmark, but that wouldn't be the end, that would be the start of the end. Add some more trillions of years.
    Solfe

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinbad View Post
    But she wrote can happen at any time?
    The problem is that you canít deny that. Of course it could end at any moment, because we have incomplete knowledge and have no way to be absolutely sure that something will not happen. We have absolutely no reason to think that gravity might reverse tomorrow, but how can we say with absolute certainty that it wonít?

    But thereís no reason to take anything that Hawking wrote as necessarily true. You have never heard of the magazine subscription that he gave Kip Thorne?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinbad View Post
    But she wrote can happen at any time?
    There is one (completely hypothetical) scenario where the universe could end in 5 minutes, or 5 years or 5 billion, billion years. But we would never know about it. And there is no reason to think it will happen. So it probably isn't worth worrying about. (This is the false vacuum decay idea.)

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    I know about vacuum decay and how it is not highly possibly , but the book comment wrote her professor told her the universe can end at any time. What did they mean by that if everyone here is saying billions of years away

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    The problem is that you can’t deny that. Of course it could end at any moment, because we have incomplete knowledge and have no way to be absolutely sure that something will not happen. We have absolutely no reason to think that gravity might reverse tomorrow, but how can we say with absolute certainty that it won’t?

    But there’s no reason to take anything that Hawking wrote as necessarily true. You have never heard of the magazine subscription that he gave Kip Thorne?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

    So billions of years in the future is not true then.
    It’s just guessing and for some reason in our lifetime we have a better chance of seeing it?
    Last edited by Sinbad; 2020-Jan-23 at 11:49 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinbad View Post
    So billions of years in the future is not true then.
    Trillions or quadrillions of years, or maybe forever, following the mainstream model of the universe.
    Anything else is allowing that the current model isn't the only model.
    Forming opinions as we speak

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    Quote Originally Posted by antoniseb View Post
    Trillions or quadrillions of years, or maybe forever, following the mainstream model of the universe.
    Anything else is allowing that the current model isn't the only model.
    I don’t understand what you mean

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinbad View Post
    I don’t understand what you mean
    You said:
    So billions of years in the future is not true then.
    What do you mean by "not true"?
    Forming opinions as we speak

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinbad View Post
    I know about vacuum decay and how it is not highly possibly , but the book comment wrote her professor told her the universe can end at any time. What did they mean by that if everyone here is saying billions of years away
    "Anytime" includes "billions of years away".

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinbad View Post
    So billions of years in the future is not true then.
    It’s just guessing and for some reason in our lifetime we have a better chance of seeing it?
    Who said we have a better chance in our lifetime? (You did. Everyone else says billions of years and you say "so tomorrow then")

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    According to the book information and comment it can happen anytime in our lifetime and not far in the future as people have been saying, that’s what I meant

    Dr. Katie Mack has been contemplating these questions since she was eighteen, when her astronomy professor first informed her the universe could end at any moment,

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinbad View Post
    According to the book information and comment it can happen anytime in our lifetime and no far in the future as people have been saying that’s what I mean.
    If it could happen anytime then that means at any time.

    So let's say a human lifetime is 80 years.

    And let's say that the universe has been around for 14 billion years and could be around for another 786 billion years (or even more). So a period of 800 billion years, at least.

    If the universe could end at "any time" it is 10 billion times more likely not to happen in your lifetime than in your lifetime. So, no, it is not likely to happen in your lifetime.

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    That’s what I mean but everyone seems so sure it is billions of years away or more, and the review of her book said anytime

    That is my confusion that for some reason it may happen in our lifetime for some reason

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinbad View Post
    That’s what I mean but everyone seems so sure it is billions of years away or more, and the review of her book said anytime

    That is my confusion that for some reason it may happen in our lifetime for some reason
    It could happen in our lifetime but is much more likely not to. It is far more likely to happen in the far distant future.

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    So what is different in our lifetime than hundreds or thousands of years ago.
    Also all scenarios mentioned point to thinks atleast billions s of years away except for vacuum collapse, is that what is meant by anytime or is there other things that aren’t mentioned.

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