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Thread: important data correlation from corona virus updates

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    important data correlation from corona virus updates

    We know that warmer climates do not help much with the spread of the corona virus, but might it help with recovery of people that have already become sick? Upon looking through the corona virus update numbers for the deaths and recoveries of each of the countries a couple of weeks back, I noticed that many of the warmer climate countries seemed to be doing much better than many of the countries with colder climates. So I started looking up the average temperatures for march of each of the countries by typing "march weather *country*" into bing search engine which quickly gives the average march temperatures for the capital city of that country at the top of the list of results. I then grouped the countries together that lie within the same temperature range and added the total number of deaths together for each range and the total number of recoveries together for each range.

    To find the average number of deaths to the total number of outcomes so far, I simply used the equation: deaths / (deaths plus recoveries). It should be noted, however, that while deaths may be added to the updates immediately, the recoveries may lag behind another week to be sure of a full recovery, so the ratio of deaths to total outcomes will appear greater than they actually are due to the lag of recoveries. With this in mind, a quick blind averaging of all of the countries at that time worked out to 40% deaths to total outcomes at temperatures below 70 degrees F, 17% at 70-80 degrees F, and fell to just 11% over 80 degrees F. That is a very large difference of about three to four times lesser death rate at higher temperatures. I would like to implore others to work through the new numbers from the updates and verify these results as well as the data is readily available.

    I spent the last week trying to determine which countries have the best health care as that may also be a very large factor as well and indeed, many of the countries that are doing well according to the recovery rates in the updates are at the top of the list for health care as well. However, roughly half of the countries that are listed as having top health care are not doing well at all in the updates, mostly the colder countries, unless those countries are simply waiting longer before listing their recoveries in order to ensure that their patients have had a full and successful recovery, perhaps with up to a two or three week lag if that is the case.

    I wasn't sure whether to take the countries with better health care off the list altogether, since many of them are doing very well, having some of the best ratios of all of the countries in the updates so far, but many of them are doing very poorly also, so I decided to leave them for now and just truncate the results within each range of temperatures. Using this last friday's updates, I originally divided the countries up into 6 temperature ranges so that each includes about 14 countries. Since some countries have large numbers and some small, I ran the ratios for each country with greater than 10 outcomes individually this time and added 1 to the number of deaths and 10 to the number of recoveries so that countries with an unreliably small number of outcomes might be placed closer to the expect results while barely affecting countries with a larger number of outcomes, so the equation for the new results becomes (deaths + 1) / (deaths + recoveries + 11).

    I then truncated the two countries that are doing the best and the two countries that are doing the worst within each temperature range which would hopefully drop most countries that are doing well due to health care, and then I found the mean average of the countries that remain within each range by simply adding their individual ratios together and dividing by the number of countries. Originally I had 6 ranges, but one of them was rather large, ranging from the 60's to mid 70's and there appears to be a sudden drop within that range and I wanted to better see where that drop occurs, so I broke that range up into two smaller ranges and only trancated one country from the top and bottom each for those two ranges.

    Many countries are only now becoming ill and one would need to wait til there are more outcomes to get the most accurate results, but by then thousands of people will have died and this may help so I want to go ahead and get it out there. My thinking is that most people stay indoors after becoming ill where the climate is controlled. However, if the climate outside is colder, then in order to save on energy bills, most people would probably keep the inside of their house cooler as well, perhaps as low as 60 degress F, while those with decent climates at the moment would tend to keep their house about the same, and those with hot climates might tend to keep their house at a warm temperature from 75 to 80 degrees F perhaps. So the results for the temperature differences could be as little as a 20 degree difference, those below "room temperature" and those above.

    Since heat does not affect the spread of the virus, then heat most likely doesn't kill it, but perhaps it helps to keep it from fully settling into the lungs which may allow people to continue to breathe long enough to recover. This is just my best guess however as I am not a doctor so I definitely want to state that. I'm just a numbers guy that happened to notice a correlation in the numbers so far. I would also want to warn people reading this about cranking the heat up too high in their homes in hopes that it will help them with recovery. You wouldn't want to die from heat stroke before you have even had the chance to recover in the first place. These results could just be a trick of small numbers which might change later on as the numbers grow so that there is more data to work from, although so far there does seem to be a large correlation with recovery and heat, but the data suggests that room temperature to just barely over room temperature will work just fine.

    Here are the new results for deaths per total outcomes using the numbers from the corona virus updates on 3/27/2020 :

    below 45 degrees F, 29.95%
    45 - 52 degrees F , 27.15%
    53 - 59 degrees F , 30.43%
    60 - 67 degrees F , 35.61%
    68 - 75 degrees F , 10.95%
    76 - 83 degrees F , 13.41%
    above 83 degrees F, 13.51%

  2. #2
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    That's interesting to read. As a caveat, presumably the people recovering will be within a heated hospital, so I find it hard to believe that the heat outside would affect the recovery. What is possible, though, is that people in a colder climate get a higher initial viral load.
    As above, so below

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    People in colder climates are more likely to be in rooms with less external ventilation compared with those in warmer climates.

    Would you keep your windows open in the middle of winter? In tropical/sub tropical climates you leave your (insect screened) windows open all year round and only close them for strong winds and rain.

    68 to 75 degrees F (20 - 24 C) is the ideal temperature range as greater temperatures usually have higher humidity.

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    Here are the newest results taken from the updates on saturday morning 4/4/2020. The numbers are high enough now that I just ran them "as is" this time using the straight-forward equation (deaths) / (deaths + recoveries) for all countries listed that have at least 30 outcomes and did not truncate any countries within the temperature ranges. I did, however, exclude 5 of the larger countries that contain more than a couple of the temperature ranges within their borders during the month of march, which are USA, chile, argentina, brazil, and china.

    temperature ------- ratio -- # of countries

    below 45 degrees F, 26.16% , 12
    45 - 52 degrees F , 29.71% , 16
    53 - 59 degrees F , 37.71% , 11
    60 - 67 degrees F , 33.35% , 10
    68 - 75 degrees F , 11.48% , 6
    76 - 83 degrees F , 16.91% , 14
    above 83 degrees F, 18.72% , 16
    Last edited by grav; 2020-Apr-05 at 04:32 PM.

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    Here is something interesting. I ran the numbers for the countries with at least 50 outcomes each, excluding the 5 countries I listed before. Of those 69 countries that remained I divided them into 8 temperature ranges with 8 or 9 countries within each one. I then truncated the countries with the top 2 and the bottom 2 ratios within each temperature range and averaged the remaining mid-ratio countries together. The number of countries averaged together within each range is the number of countries shown in the graph minus 4. Here are the results.

    temperature ------ ratio -- # of countries

    below 43 degrees F, 10.33% , 8
    43 - 48 degrees F , 27.46% , 9
    49 - 53 degrees F , 28.58% , 9
    54 - 61 degrees F , 41.74% , 8
    62 - 71 degrees F , 18.20% , 9
    72 - 80 degrees F , 15.80% , 8
    81 - 85 degrees F , 03.47% , 9
    above 85 degrees F, 13.40% , 9

  6. #6
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    The virus reproduces within our bodies at body temperature. Your lungs, and the air in your lungs, are at body temperature. Being homeotherms, our body temperature is physiologically maintained irrespective of ambient temperature, across a broad range (this is true even when we have a fever).
    When environmental temperature is so extreme it actually manages to change our body temperature, we die.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    The virus reproduces within our bodies at body temperature. Your lungs, and the air in your lungs, are at body temperature. Being homeotherms, our body temperature is physiologically maintained irrespective of ambient temperature, across a broad range (this is true even when we have a fever).
    When environmental temperature is so extreme it actually manages to change our body temperature, we die.

    Grant Hutchison
    Hi grant. I have looked up some sites that show that hypothermia can occur in 50 degree weather in as little as a few minutes by lowering the body temperature to dangerous levels. The elderly and toddlers are especially vulnerable to climate change. The same applies for high temperatures and hyperthermia, although more gradually because we sweat to cool our bodies. I would be inclined to agree with you, though, since moderate temperatures shouldn't have much effect.

    One poster on another forum replied that increased temperature is generally produced by increased sunlight, which in turn produces more vitamin D in the body. Looking up vitamin D on Wiki, it says "The major natural source of the vitamin is synthesis of cholecalciferol in the lower layers of skin epidermis through a chemical reaction that is dependent on sun exposure (specifically UVB radiation)."

    Here's what Wiki says about how vitamin D affects the immune system in terms of infectious diseases. "In general, vitamin D functions to activate the innate and dampen the adaptive immune systems. Deficiency has been linked to increased risk or severity of viral infections, including HIV. Low levels of vitamin D appear to be a risk factor for tuberculosis, and historically it was used as a treatment. Supplementation slightly decreases the risk of acute respiratory tract infections and the exacerbation of asthma."

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    The website 'prevention' says "The risk of developing pneumonia is more than 2.5 times greater in people with the lowest vitamin D levels in their blood, researchers at the University of Eastern Finland found. Previous research suggests that vitamin D deficiency weakens the immune system, which increases your risk of contracting illnesses such as respiratory infections."

    The website 'healthline' says "One of vitamin D's most important roles is keeping your immune system strong so you're able to fight off viruses and bacteria that cause illness. It directly interacts with the cells that are responsible for fighting infection. If you often become sick, especially with colds or the flu, low vitamin D levels may be a contributing factor. Several large observational studies have shown a link between a deficiency and respiratory tract infections like colds, bronchitis and pneumonia. A number of studies have found that taking vitamin D supplements at a dosage of up to 4,000 IU daily may reduce your risk of respiratory tract infections."

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    Grav, the "cases" that each country records depend on the diagnostic criteria used, the testing available, and how it's deployed. So we don't know the real case fatality rate for any country. In addition, the case fatality rate depends strongly on the demographic most affected, and that varies from country to country, both because of the demographic structure of the country, and the way the epidemic is spread.
    So the death/(death plus recovery) figure you're using is fundamentally divorced from reality--there are simply too many other national characteristics stacked between you and the unknown real data. Any correlation between that figure and some other number is going to be equally divorced from reality.
    As for Vitamin D, you need to look at the data:
    Vitamin D deficiency is a major public health problem worldwide in all age groups, even in those residing in countries with low latitude, where it was generally assumed that UV radiation was adequate enough to prevent this deficiency, and in industrialized countries, where vitamin D fortification has been implemented now for years.
    The correlation between sunlight and Vitamin D deficiency doesn't exist in the way you imagine, because there's (again) lots of other stuff going on.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Well, I ran the numbers for this weekend and the correlation still remains the same as we have been seeing so far. The correlation really pops out if we truncate a couple of countries in each temperature range that are doing the worst, falling to single digit percentages above about 78 degrees F. I also wanted to see how vitamin D affects these ratios with the next best source to UVB in sunlight being fish, so I found a list of countries which gives the fish consumption per person per year at the Helgi library and ran the numbers for ranges of fish consumption in the same way as with the temperatures before.

    Different types of fish provide different amounts of vitamin D but I figured there would be at least some correlation with fish in general since vitamin D helps with the immune system and fighting off viral and bacterial infections, especially in the respiratory tract. Also, many of the countries that are doing the best with moderate to low temperatures happen to also be at the top in the world for fishing and fish consumption. So imagine my surprise when I could find no correlation with fish consumption whatsoever. None. I thought there would be at least something just for the vitamin D factor which should help tremendously with surviving virus infections, but all ranges for fish consumption were about the same with the ratios for countries with barely any fish consumption at all running the same as that for countries with one to two servings per day per person on average. It's looking again like just plain heat is what is what may be helping the most with the best correlation by far.
    Last edited by grav; 2020-Apr-12 at 02:51 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by grav View Post
    So imagine my surprise when I could find no correlation with fish consumption whatsoever. None.
    Imagine my profound lack of surprise.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Well personally I would be surprised if you plugged in the numbers from the below article and did not find a strong correlation. But please let us know.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vege...ism_by_country

    ETA It is important to keep in mind any such correlation is a single factor among many and it should be treated as such among other correlative factors such as age distribution per capita which is expected to be a heavier/stronger factor.

    ETA II All the following factors are probably at work to varying degrees and make the correlation complicated at best:
    Greeting habits, age, diet, population concentration, housing/building Air circulation, sunshine hours per day, ...

    ETA III Perhaps a good example of opposing factors at work is Japan whose population is among the oldest per capita in the world (if not the oldest) while having a non-contact greeting custom.
    Last edited by a1call; 2020-Apr-12 at 04:56 PM.

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    1) All data for deaths and recoveries are incomplete, do not reflect the reality on the ground, and are not comparable between countries.
    2) The concept of the "average temperature of a country in March" is, frankly, ludicrous.
    3) The epidemiology of dietary nutrients is very complicated, and most places not experiencing food shortages get most nutrients most of the time, but by different routes.

    Medicine is always complicated, public health doubly so, and epidemiology doubly so again. Naive attempts to correlate incomplete data with other incomplete data are misguided at best, and dangerous at worst. I wish people would stop doing it.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Quote Originally Posted by a1call View Post
    Well personally I would be surprised if you plugged in the numbers from the below article and did not find a strong correlation. But please let us know.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vege...ism_by_country

    ETA It is important to keep in mind any such correlation is a single factor among many and it should be treated as such among other correlative factors such as age distribution per capita which is expected to be a heavier/stronger factor.

    ETA II All the following factors are probably at work to varying degrees and make the correlation complicated at best:
    Greeting habits, age, diet, population concentration, housing/building Air circulation, sunshine hours per day, ...

    ETA III Perhaps a good example of opposing factors at work is Japan whose population is among the oldest per capita in the world (if not the oldest) while having a non-contact greeting custom.
    So far I've tried comparing lists for sugar, coffee, fruits and vegetables, fish, tobacco, beer, whiskey, rice, beans, vinegar, tuberculosis success rates, tomatoes, and a few others and have not seen any correlation. I have not actually run the numbers though but just made comparisons of the best and worst countries in the updates. Meat consumption seems somewhat promising, but really only heat so far shows a high correlation that persists as the numbers grow.

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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    1) All data for deaths and recoveries are incomplete, do not reflect the reality on the ground, and are not comparable between countries.
    2) The concept of the "average temperature of a country in March" is, frankly, ludicrous.
    3) The epidemiology of dietary nutrients is very complicated, and most places not experiencing food shortages get most nutrients most of the time, but by different routes.

    Medicine is always complicated, public health doubly so, and epidemiology doubly so again. Naive attempts to correlate incomplete data with other incomplete data are misguided at best, and dangerous at worst. I wish people would stop doing it.

    Grant Hutchison
    Right. I can only work with what data I can find which is not ideal I'm sure but may give a general perspective. Other than that, what a1call said with the ETA's.

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    Quote Originally Posted by grav View Post
    Right. I can only work with what data I can find which is not ideal I'm sure but may give a general perspective.
    No, it can't. You can't get a general perspective from bad data. Garbage In, Garbage Out.

    And if you shop around for correlations, as you now reveal you have been doing, you'll always find a correlation. In the trade, hunting around through "sugar, coffee, fruits and vegetables, fish, tobacco, beer, whiskey, rice, beans, vinegar, tuberculosis success rates, tomatoes, and a few others" is called a "fishing expedition", and even if you had good data to begin with (which you really, really don't), it would blow the credibility of your result right out of the water, barring good statistical compensation for the multiple hypotheses you've examined.

    Grant Hutchison

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    This seems relevant:

    Summer Heat May Not Diminish Coronavirus Strength
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/h...nytimesscience
    Last edited by a1call; 2020-Apr-12 at 08:56 PM.

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    The published figures are not only inaccurate, they are absent all the relevant data, even at official level. To try deducing is plain bad science, and risks being very misleading.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

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    This is an interesting paper on the topic. The 25 references at the bottom show relevant research papers published since 1976.

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=3550308

    Temperature, Humidity and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19
    Findings: To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50o Ní corridor at consistently similar weather patterns consisting of average temperatures of 5-11oC, combined with low specific (3-6 g/kg) and absolute humidity (4-7 g/m3). There has been a lack of significant community establishment in expected locations that are based only on population proximity and extensive population interaction through travel.

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    Closed pending moderator discussion.

    And meanwhile do not take up this discussion in the pandemic thread
    Last edited by Swift; 2020-Apr-13 at 03:47 PM.
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    After review, this thread will remain closed.

    First, we already have a pandemic thread, that has essentially turned into a Covid-19 thread. We do not need a proliferation of threads; it will just make it too confusing for people to contribute.

    Second, the thread was turning into Covid-19 ATM. Amateur data analysis might be fine on your own, but if you present it here, particularly if it is counter to or not supported by current science, then it becomes ATM. And in this case, it also starts appearing to offer medical advice (a Rule 1 violation).

    As we often say, sometimes the mainstream science answer is "we don't know". This is particularly true with a new and rapidly developing disease. This does not mean that speculation, particularly when it advances beyond the "idle" phase, is allowed on CQ.
    Last edited by Swift; 2020-Apr-13 at 04:07 PM.
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