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Thread: The COVID-19 Discussion Thread (OTB)

  1. #1741
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    There are something like 135,000 people at the Indianapolis 500. Can you say "superspreader", boys and girls?
    Time will tell. So many variables are involved. They were mostly outside, but it looked extremely crowded. I donít know what the current infection rate is in Indiana, & I wouldnít venture a guess as to what percentage of attendees were fully vaccinated.

    Personally, I would not have attended if I had the opportunity.
    I may have many faults, but being wrong ain't one of them. - Jimmy Hoffa

  2. #1742
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    My wife had to have a Covid test today - happily a negative result. As I said in 'another thread' she is suffering from a very bad cold for the last few days and she decided she needed to see a Dr. Because of her symptons when I went to book in she was not able to 'physically' see the Dr but was able to book a phone consultation and the Dr was able to solve her immediate needs. However, she was told if she decided that did want to actually visit the surgery she would need a negative Covid test.

    We went to drive-through testing facility a few km away. There was only one car in front of us and the whole process was over in under 5 minutes. She said that the swab tickled her nose. The swab was taken at around 8:45 am and she got an SMS with the results at about 8 pm.

  3. #1743
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    Quote Originally Posted by ozduck View Post
    My wife had to have a Covid test today - happily a negative result. As I said in 'another thread' she is suffering from a very bad cold for the last few days and she decided she needed to see a Dr. Because of her symptons when I went to book in she was not able to 'physically' see the Dr but was able to book a phone consultation and the Dr was able to solve her immediate needs. However, she was told if she decided that did want to actually visit the surgery she would need a negative Covid test.

    We went to drive-through testing facility a few km away. There was only one car in front of us and the whole process was over in under 5 minutes. She said that the swab tickled her nose. The swab was taken at around 8:45 am and she got an SMS with the results at about 8 pm.
    There is a possibility that the biomaterial was collected incorrectly. To determine the presence of COVID, you need to slightly injure the mucous membrane in order to get cells for research. And if you say that everything was absolutely painless, then the test result can become false negative. I have researched this question in detail.

  4. #1744
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    Well, we're shedding mucous membrane cells all the time--you can obtain them by something called "nasal lavage", which just involves washing the inside of the nose with liquid. So there's no reason to injure your nose to obtain a sample.
    My own health authority issued a "mythbusters" statement about Lateral Flow Testing to their staff, and "tickling" is precisely the sensation they describe for the nasal part of the swabbing process, as reported by those who experience it. So I certainly wouldn't want to make someone anxious about a potential false negative just because all they experienced was tickling.
    That said, it can certainly feel like more than tickling--my own LFTs have all given me a slight stinging sensation high in the nose, like a localized version of the sensation you get in a dry, dusty environment just before you sneeze.

    Grant Hutchison

  5. #1745
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    I am talking from a place of little knowledge about the 'ideal' procedure but I assume that there is a standard process taught. There have been no reports in the Australian media that any infections have been missed due to poor sample taking - and the media would love to be able to run such a story. Anyway, I am not particularly concerned as there has been no Covid circulating in the community in this state for most of the last 14 months.

  6. #1746
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    Quote Originally Posted by ozduck View Post
    I am talking from a place of little knowledge about the 'ideal' procedure but I assume that there is a standard process taught. There have been no reports in the Australian media that any infections have been missed due to poor sample taking - and the media would love to be able to run such a story. Anyway, I am not particularly concerned as there has been no Covid circulating in the community in this state for most of the last 14 months.
    In your sort of situation, with extremely low prevalence, then any negative lateral flow test is overwhelmingly likely to be a true negative; and any positive test is pretty likely to be a false positive. So most people with a positive test will have a false positive---which is why they need repeat testing or a PCR lab test. But subjecting a small number of people to the inconvenience of self-isolation for a small number of days is considered a reasonable price to pay (at a community level) for the occasional true positive that turns up.
    The balance shifts when Covid has high prevalence--we start to see a lower proportion of false positives, but a significant proportion of false negatives, at which point LFTs begin to be less useful in controlling disease, and we need to revert to blanket limitations on people's ability to interact with each other at close quarters.

    So it's important to bear in mind that lateral flow testing is less about individual results and more about community results. For certain levels of disease prevalence, it helps health authorities limit the transmission of infection.

    Grant Hutchison

  7. #1747
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    In your sort of situation, with extremely low prevalence, then any negative lateral flow test is overwhelmingly likely to be a true negative; and any positive test is pretty likely to be a false positive. So most people with a positive test will have a false positive---which is why they need repeat testing or a PCR lab test. But subjecting a small number of people to the inconvenience of self-isolation for a small number of days is considered a reasonable price to pay (at a community level) for the occasional true positive that turns up.
    The balance shifts when Covid has high prevalence--we start to see a lower proportion of false positives, but a significant proportion of false negatives, at which point LFTs begin to be less useful in controlling disease, and we need to revert to blanket limitations on people's ability to interact with each other at close quarters.

    So it's important to bear in mind that lateral flow testing is less about individual results and more about community results. For certain levels of disease prevalence, it helps health authorities limit the transmission of infection.

    Grant Hutchison
    Thanks for the further explanations. Yes that seems to be the approach during the current lockdown in the state of Victoria. They are testing, and vaccinating, people in record numbers but have extended the lockdown to 2 weeks as 6 or so new cases are turning up every day. So far all of them seem to be able to traced to other known cases. The Victorian Chief Medical Officer used the sort of reasoning you outlined as the reason why contacts needed to be reduced for at least another week.

    My wife only had to isolate for some 11 hours anyway and is still feeling so sick she wasn't going out anywhere. I had to pick up a prescription for her so I stood outside the Pharmacy, in the open air, and rang them with all the details and they bought out the medicine and 'threw' it to me outside - I was wearing a mask as well for that trip.

    Has any more progress been made on the efficacy of 'instant' tests? For months I have been hearing about new tests these from many countries but when they are closely examined they never seem to be much above 50% accurate - so you might as well diagnose with a coin.

  8. #1748
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    Quote Originally Posted by ozduck View Post
    Thanks for the further explanations. Yes that seems to be the approach during the current lockdown in the state of Victoria. They are testing, and vaccinating, people in record numbers but have extended the lockdown to 2 weeks as 6 or so new cases are turning up every day. So far all of them seem to be able to traced to other known cases. The Victorian Chief Medical Officer used the sort of reasoning you outlined as the reason why contacts needed to be reduced for at least another week.

    My wife only had to isolate for some 11 hours anyway and is still feeling so sick she wasn't going out anywhere. I had to pick up a prescription for her so I stood outside the Pharmacy, in the open air, and rang them with all the details and they bought out the medicine and 'threw' it to me outside - I was wearing a mask as well for that trip.

    Has any more progress been made on the efficacy of 'instant' tests? For months I have been hearing about new tests these from many countries but when they are closely examined they never seem to be much above 50% accurate - so you might as well diagnose with a coin.
    It seems that dogs can be trained to sniff out Covid 19 on clothing, although that study is not yet peer reviewed it seems both amazing and to be expected at the same time. The accuracy was high. Exactly what the dogs detect may be interesting for academics but the practical uses are clear.
    sicut vis videre esto
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  9. #1749
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    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    It seems that dogs can be trained to sniff out Covid 19 on clothing, although that study is not yet peer reviewed it seems both amazing and to be expected at the same time. The accuracy was high. Exactly what the dogs detect may be interesting for academics but the practical uses are clear.
    My dog can detect blood sugar levels, so I am not surprised. She is totally untrained for this, so she could be triggering off my behavior rather than a smell. She is too unreliable in other ways to even consider training her or otherwise investigating further. She is a wacky dog.

    One of the more heartwarming aspects of this pandemic was, it cleared out our local animal shelters. At this time, the local SPCA has only 8 dogs and almost 24 cats. Before this, they had over a hundred of each. I've heard that in other places the shelters are taking a hit as people return their pandemic adoptions. That doesn't seem to be the case locally.

    In the middle of this mess, we adopted a kitten for my son. We had to drive 30 miles round trip 3 times to get one. I've never seen someone so happy, so it was totally worth it.
    Solfe

  10. #1750
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    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    It seems that dogs can be trained to sniff out Covid 19 on clothing, although that study is not yet peer reviewed it seems both amazing and to be expected at the same time. The accuracy was high. Exactly what the dogs detect may be interesting for academics but the practical uses are clear.
    I have seen a few reports about the use of 'sniffer dogs' and it does sound very interesting if obviously still in the early stages of testing.

  11. #1751
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    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  12. #1752
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    Quote Originally Posted by ozduck View Post
    I am talking from a place of little knowledge about the 'ideal' procedure but I assume that there is a standard process taught. ...
    The version I heard was that if they pull the swab out and there's no gray matter on it, they did it wrong.

    'course that could have been from someone who didn't like getting a stick shoved up his nose.
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  13. #1753
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    Tickle? Tickle?

    Harrumph...

  14. #1754
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    Quote Originally Posted by Solfe View Post
    One of the more heartwarming aspects of this pandemic was, it cleared out our local animal shelters. At this time, the local SPCA has only 8 dogs and almost 24 cats. Before this, they had over a hundred of each. I've heard that in other places the shelters are taking a hit as people return their pandemic adoptions. That doesn't seem to be the case locally.

    In the middle of this mess, we adopted a kitten for my son. We had to drive 30 miles round trip 3 times to get one. I've never seen someone so happy, so it was totally worth it.
    Sadly, I'm seeing reports of "pandemic pets" being abandoned as things open back up.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  15. #1755
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim View Post
    The version I heard was that if they pull the swab out and there's no gray matter on it, they did it wrong.

    'course that could have been from someone who didn't like getting a stick shoved up his nose.
    If they shoved a stick up his nose, he's probably right to complain.
    But if people are bothered by it, I'd suggest they do it for themselves. It's not a complicated thing to do, and it gives you a bit of a sense of control.

    Grant Hutchison

  16. #1756
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    Albertson's gave me a 10% off coupon for one order of groceries for being vaccinated at their supermarket. My bicycle can't carry a lot of cargo so I gave the coupon to a guy with a nearly full shopping cart. That counts as my good deed for the decade.

  17. #1757
    Right now the province is on a drive to get 75% with the first shot of the vaccine,so they can open up to PEI and Newfoundland by Monday night, we are up to 69%. I am even getting a little annoyed the last time I was outside the area around town was when I saw the Last Jedi, and a while I have cravings for chicken Thai salad which I had that day while maybe I will get another chance this upcoming Christmas.
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  18. #1758
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    My county went to the red tier (worst) fairly early in the pandemic, though we never had numbers like LA. Yet LAís numbers improved faster than ours, possibly because things had been so bad there, leading to a higher percentage of natural immunity in the population.

    Anyway, my county finally dropped to orange, mostly due to vaccinations, and just in time because the entire tier thing is to be lifted June 15. For now it mainly means a number of businesses can have 50% capacity vs. the current 25%. It would have been annoying if we had stayed in the red until the end (or might have forced an extension). Our state has taken one of the strongest official stances in the country on tackling COVID-19, to mixed results. Now it is fading out.

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  19. #1759
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    Jon Rahm, a highly-ranked professional golfer, after completing the third round of this week's tournament with a commanding lead, was informed by tour officials that he had tested positive and has to withdraw. He also may miss the next major tournament, the US Open. That's a bummer for him as he probably was going to win this week and earn a ton of money and ranking points. But it emphasizes the fact that relatively few professional athletes are getting vaccinated, despite what contracting the virus would do to their career. More than that, with the PGA (the Professional Golf tour) policy of requiring daily testing and semi-isolation for players known to have had contact with a covid-positive individual, something vaccinated players are not subjected to, it's baffling why every one of them doesn't get vaccinated. Other professional sports players are similarly reluctant.

  20. #1760
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    Yet someone tried to convince me the other day that the reason he's more consistent about mask-wearing than other people is that being an athlete gives him a higher pain tolerance, an argument I do not pretend to understand.
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  21. #1761
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gillianren View Post
    Yet someone tried to convince me the other day that the reason he's more consistent about mask-wearing than other people is that being an athlete gives him a higher pain tolerance, an argument I do not pretend to understand.
    While athletes do have a higher pain tolerance than average punters, they also score high on conscientiousness in the Big Five personality traits. Assuming, for the sake of argument, some large study actually did demonstrate a link between athleticism and consistent adherence to face-covering mandates, I know which potential causal link I'd be thinking of.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Quote Originally Posted by geonuc View Post
    But it emphasizes the fact that relatively few professional athletes are getting vaccinated, despite what contracting the virus would do to their career. More than that, with the PGA (the Professional Golf tour) policy of requiring daily testing and semi-isolation for players known to have had contact with a covid-positive individual, something vaccinated players are not subjected to, it's baffling why every one of them doesn't get vaccinated. Other professional sports players are similarly reluctant.
    I would suppose that (like others) they are worried about side effects. But do you have a source for the statement that relatively few professional athletes are vaccinated? I havenít heard that.


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  23. #1763
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I would suppose that (like others) they are worried about side effects. But do you have a source for the statement that relatively few professional athletes are vaccinated? I haven’t heard that.
    No, it's just my feeling based on various stuff I've come across recently.

  24. #1764
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    Quote Originally Posted by geonuc View Post
    No, it's just my feeling based on various stuff I've come across recently.
    I see. I really don't know, you could well be correct about that. But in that case I think it's better not to say "the fact that."
    As above, so below

  25. #1765
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I would suppose that (like others) they are worried about side effects. But do you have a source for the statement that relatively few professional athletes are vaccinated? I havenít heard that.


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    Athletes in general are known more for their physical than for intellectual prowess. And many seem highly susceptible to woo.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

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    Celebrities in general appear to fare poorly when it comes to planning skills and sound judgement, but I have no idea if they are any worse than average people in that regard since average people don't have a public spotlight on all their plans and decisions. It also may involve some selection bias, we hear about it more when celebs do something stupid.

    Still, not getting vaccinated when you're in a profession that rewards vaccination is baffling. I guess all the low hanging fruit has already been picked as far as who's going to be an easy sell on the shots. The remainder will be a struggle.
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  27. #1767
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    While athletes do have a higher pain tolerance than average punters, they also score high on conscientiousness in the Big Five personality traits. Assuming, for the sake of argument, some large study actually did demonstrate a link between athleticism and consistent adherence to face-covering mandates, I know which potential causal link I'd be thinking of.
    I pointed out to him that I have crippling arthritis and still consistently wear a mask in public despite being vaccinated. Which also, bluntly, gives me a high pain tolerance. He still tried to make it about his athleticism, despite the fact that, if it hurts you to wear a mask all day, you're probably doing it wrong.
    _____________________________________________
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    "Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

    "You can't erase icing."

    "I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

  28. #1768
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gillianren View Post
    I pointed out to him that I have crippling arthritis and still consistently wear a mask in public despite being vaccinated. Which also, bluntly, gives me a high pain tolerance. He still tried to make it about his athleticism, despite the fact that, if it hurts you to wear a mask all day, you're probably doing it wrong.
    Wait, he was saying the mask is more painful that the injection?
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  29. #1769
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I see. I really don't know, you could well be correct about that. But in that case I think it's better not to say "the fact that."
    Point taken, thanks.

  30. #1770
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gillianren View Post
    I pointed out to him that I have crippling arthritis and still consistently wear a mask in public despite being vaccinated. Which also, bluntly, gives me a high pain tolerance. He still tried to make it about his athleticism, despite the fact that, if it hurts you to wear a mask all day, you're probably doing it wrong.
    Iím sort of curious why this came up in the first place. Do people in the US actually have discussions about how good they are at wearing masks? Here, everybody wears masks all the time when theyíre out, whether they are athletic or not.
    As above, so below

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