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Thread: The COVID-19 Discussion Thread (OTB)

  1. #1471
    Today 10 schools are closed so the teachers can get vaccinated at a clinic. We are a little behind but it there are several factors the way I see it, their are several billion people it takes time to manufacture, the population is spread out and getting some versions of the vaccine are hard to store but I jut can't wait to get my jab.
    Here is an article about how it might be hard to get herd immunity.
    Five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible (nature.com)
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  2. #1472
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    Quote Originally Posted by schlaugh View Post
    For the kids or the adults?
    In my case, the adults. My oldest was almost 5 when free movie day started.

    Speaking of nap time, I had most of all last year off. I finally think I have my sleep schedule back together. Actually having to get up and put on pants for work really helps. As opposed to wearing sleep or sweat pants with a dress shirt and tie for Zoom. I do kind of like this job. So it isn't 100% about the money, which it was when I got it.
    Solfe

  3. #1473
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    Our local 'drug regulator' has just given regulatory approval for the use of Australian produced AstraZenica vaccine and the first doses are going out this week. This is very timely as there are now strong signs that the EU is going to severely restrict the export of Covid vaccines for at least the next 6 weeks. We have already had one pre-paid shipment from the EU stopped because, basically, it said 'we need it more than you do'. Canada has also expressed concern as they, apparently, source most of their vaccine from the EU and have no local production. The locally produced vaccine will enable the vaccination programme to gain steam - we have currently only vaccinated a little over 1% of the population in the three weeks since vaccination began here.

    The major problem we are currently facing is that Papua New Guinea, our nearest neighbour, which had been handling the outbreak fairly well has had a sudden major flare up in infections. Their own ordered stocks of vaccine are not due to arrive for several months. Australia has supplied some vaccine from our imported stock as an emergency measure but we do not have sufficient supplies to currently provide much more. A request has been made to the EU for the supply of a Million doses of vaccine that we had already ordered and paid for and that was intended for use in Australia. Australia would instead donate it directly to PNG plus supplying emergency personnel and equipment to help in the vaccination programme. So far this request has received no response from the EU.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/23/w...gtype=Homepage

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-56424306
    Last edited by ozduck; 2021-Mar-24 at 04:00 AM.

  4. #1474
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    A friend of mine posted on Facebook that we need some sort of secret greeting between fully vaccinated people, so you know the other person is "safe". Sort of like a secret handshake. She suggested that people "moo" at each other (the sound in American English that cows make), as a funny way of indicating "herd" immunity.

    That generated a funny and supportive discussion, where several people indicating they weren't up to "moo" yet, but after one shot were only at "mmmm".
    At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

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  5. #1475
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    It's been few enough days so I can't even "mmm" yet. But my faire boss is figuring out details on how to make a mold for "I've been vaccinated" pins. For now, you can order hand-stamped ones.
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    "Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

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  6. #1476
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    Quote Originally Posted by Swift View Post
    She suggested that people "moo" at each other (the sound in American English that cows make), as a funny way of indicating "herd" immunity.
    After a twisted fit of word association, I now have videos of screaming goats dancing through my head. Thanks for that.
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  7. #1477
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    They gave us vaccination record cards. Oddly they're bigger than a credit card or driver license, so they won't fit in a wallet. But they might fit in a name tag holder. If I can find one I'll give it a try. It's either that or wear it hanging from a neck lanyard.

    (Someone suggested that you could take a cell phone photo so you'd have it available to show.)
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  8. #1478
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim View Post
    They gave us vaccination record cards. Oddly they're bigger than a credit card or driver license, so they won't fit in a wallet. But they might fit in a name tag holder. If I can find one I'll give it a try. It's either that or wear it hanging from a neck lanyard.

    (Someone suggested that you could take a cell phone photo so you'd have it available to show.)
    Try in a passport.

  9. #1479
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim View Post
    They gave us vaccination record cards. Oddly they're bigger than a credit card or driver license, so they won't fit in a wallet. But they might fit in a name tag holder. If I can find one I'll give it a try. It's either that or wear it hanging from a neck lanyard.

    (Someone suggested that you could take a cell phone photo so you'd have it available to show.)
    I received one of those cards and they are big.

    There have been warnings in the news not to post photo's of one's card (to announce you have been vaccinated) as there are fears hackers might use those photos to get personal information for identity theft (I'm just relaying this, I'm unconvinced that's a serious threat).

    There have also been news reports of people selling fake vaccination cards, so that unvaccinated people can pretend they've been vaccinated, in case they have to demonstrate this for such things as work and travel (that I can completely believe).
    At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

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  10. #1480
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    Quote Originally Posted by Swift View Post
    There have been warnings in the news not to post photo's of one's card (to announce you have been vaccinated) as there are fears hackers might use those photos to get personal information for identity theft (I'm just relaying this, I'm unconvinced that's a serious threat).
    If one is farming information for identity theft, the vaccination card does give a piece. But like you, I'm not convinced this is a huge risk.

    There have also been news reports of people selling fake vaccination cards, so that unvaccinated people can pretend they've been vaccinated, in case they have to demonstrate this for such things as work and travel (that I can completely believe).
    Believable and not at all difficult to do. Like most US Government forms, they're readily available online in PDF format. All you have to do is google the form number, print 'em on card stock, and you're in "business."
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  11. #1481
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim View Post
    They gave us vaccination record cards. Oddly they're bigger than a credit card or driver license, so they won't fit in a wallet. But they might fit in a name tag holder. If I can find one I'll give it a try. It's either that or wear it hanging from a neck lanyard.

    (Someone suggested that you could take a cell phone photo so you'd have it available to show.)
    I was going to post about the size of the card in the "bugs you" thread. It sticks out, but I've got it in there. I also took pictures of both our cards on both our phones and stored them in a special folder.

    Quote Originally Posted by bknight View Post
    Try in a passport.
    We don't normally carry those.

    Quote Originally Posted by Swift View Post
    I received one of those cards and they are big.

    There have been warnings in the news not to post photo's of one's card (to announce you have been vaccinated) as there are fears hackers might use those photos to get personal information for identity theft (I'm just relaying this, I'm unconvinced that's a serious threat).

    There have also been news reports of people selling fake vaccination cards, so that unvaccinated people can pretend they've been vaccinated, in case they have to demonstrate this for such things as work and travel (that I can completely believe).
    I texted pictures of our cards to several relatives, basically just bragging. I don't think there's that much personal ID on them, such as Social Security Numbers.
    As for the fake cards, of course there are. People can be just awful.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  12. #1482
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    I sent a photo of my vaccination card to my adult kids. It has my date of birth and name on it, plus info identifying the vaccine production lot.
    I may have many faults, but being wrong ain't one of them. - Jimmy Hoffa

  13. #1483
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    I mean, it fits in my wallet, but I have a big wallet.

    I've seen the thing about not posting the picture, but genuinely, I don't think it has any information on it that isn't just as easy to find from public records.
    _____________________________________________
    Gillian

    "Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

    "You can't erase icing."

    "I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

  14. #1484
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    Some encouraging data from the latest Scottish epidemiological surveillance:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	COVID-19 modelling the epidemic in Scotland (Issue 44).png 
Views:	18 
Size:	291.6 KB 
ID:	25987

    Grant Hutchison

  15. #1485
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    I have an appointment to get my first dose on Monday.

    On a mostly-unrelated note, I fell in Taekwondo class last night and aggravated an old shoulder injury. Now I have to decide if I should get the shot in the arm that's already sore or the other one.
    Sometimes you win, sometimes you learn

  16. #1486
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    Quote Originally Posted by SeanF View Post
    I have an appointment to get my first dose on Monday.

    On a mostly-unrelated note, I fell in Taekwondo class last night and aggravated an old shoulder injury. Now I have to decide if I should get the shot in the arm that's already sore or the other one.
    Use the other arm. This way you'll be balanced.

    My wife's arm hurt abit after the first shot but not the second. She had a friend and coworker give her the first shot and really got jabbed. My wife says she did it on purpose, but if I know my wife she probably cracked a joke just before being stuck. She got the second shot from a stranger and that didn't hurt a bit. She ran off to the gym.
    Solfe

  17. #1487
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim View Post
    They gave us vaccination record cards. Oddly they're bigger than a credit card or driver license, so they won't fit in a wallet. But they might fit in a name tag holder. If I can find one I'll give it a try. It's either that or wear it hanging from a neck lanyard.
    Quote Originally Posted by bknight View Post
    Try in a passport.
    The CDC vaccination card measures 4" x 3". As Jim suggested, this is a pretty common size for an ID holder. It would also fit in a passport wallet with room to spare since the ISO size standard is 4.921" ◊ 3.465"...or more correctly, 125 ◊ 88 mm.

    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    I also took pictures of both our cards on both our phones and stored them in a special folder.
    The nice woman at the check-in desk suggested that I do the same. But being an administrative professional, could I do just that? Nope. When I got home, I had to scan both sides in PDF format, combine them into a single, appropriately sized file, and run it through OCR. Yeah, I'm not quite right.
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  18. #1488
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    I just put both our cards together and took a picture of the front sides. The only info on the back side was the time/date of our second appointment.
    But....
    Me: The dang card sticks out of my wallet.
    Lady Trebuchet: It fits in mine.
    Me: You don't have to put yours in your back pocket.
    LT: You need a purse!
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  19. #1489
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gillianren View Post
    I got an air-high five from the woman telling me where to park during my observation period, because we agreed that the BMI is nonsense but I will accept being allowed to take the vaccine because mine is high.
    My understanding is that there is an association between high BMI and getting sever disease, though. Though I canít say I keep up with the epidemiology that well, so I could be wrong.


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  20. #1490
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    I just put both our cards together and took a picture of the front sides. The only info on the back side was the time/date of our second appointment.
    But....
    Me: The dang card sticks out of my wallet.
    Lady Trebuchet: It fits in mine.
    Me: You don't have to put yours in your back pocket.
    LT: You need a purse!
    MAN: (complains about pants pocket size)

    WOMAN:

    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  21. #1491
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    Quote Originally Posted by PetersCreek View Post
    The CDC vaccination card measures 4" x 3".
    Iíll find out Monday for sure, but my understanding is that we get on-line certificates that can be printed out.

    So I think for us, it depends entirely on the capabilities of our printers.
    So . . . does this look as bad as it looks?

  22. #1492
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    My understanding is that there is an association between high BMI and getting sever disease, though. Though I can’t say I keep up with the epidemiology that well, so I could be wrong.
    You're right. And the association shows a number of features, including a dose-response relationship, which suggest the relationship between BMI and severe Covid is causative. The relationship is there for "hospitalization, ICU admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, and death" according to a recent analysis by the CDC.
    It's a simple screening tool that works well for many public health applications, but which is too simple at an individual level.

    Grant Hutchison
    Last edited by grant hutchison; 2021-Mar-27 at 01:09 PM.

  23. #1493
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    Our local university outbreak continues apace, and now dominates the case rate for the entire town. No evidence of spread to the wider community, according to the local health authority, but it pushes our town so far above the national average that it would have significant implications for our ability to exit lockdown, if such were likely in the near future.
    And all, apparently, the result of a single indoor gathering, followed by transmission within households. A textbook example.

    Grant Hutchison

  24. #1494
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    My understanding is that there is an association between high BMI and getting sever disease, though. Though I can’t say I keep up with the epidemiology that well, so I could be wrong.
    My question here is, "Are they using BMI as a shorthand for obesity?" Because that's common and something we shouldn't necessarily do.
    _____________________________________________
    Gillian

    "Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

    "You can't erase icing."

    "I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

  25. #1495
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    There's a FOAF-tale going around UK medical circles at present, in which a slim young man is called in for Covid vaccination by his GP practice. While receiving his injection, he expresses his gratification and surprise that the vaccine roll-out has gone so well that it has already reached his age-group.
    "Oh no," says the nurse. "You're here because you're on our high-risk register."
    Alarmed, the young man asks for more information about why he is considered high-risk.
    The nurse consults his computerized records and tells him it's because of his BMI.
    "Really? Why?"
    "It says here your BMI is just under a quarter of a million."
    Someone had recorded his height as 1.8 centimetres instead of 1.8 metres.

    (Disclaimer--I've never seen an electronic clinical record system that would accept such clearly erroneous data input. But it makes a good story.)

    Grant Hutchison

  26. #1496
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    There's a FOAF-tale going around UK medical circles at present, in which a slim young man is called in for Covid vaccination by his GP practice. While receiving his injection, he expresses his gratification and surprise that the vaccine roll-out has gone so well that it has already reached his age-group.
    "Oh no," says the nurse. "You're here because you're on our high-risk register."
    Alarmed, the young man asks for more information about why he is considered high-risk.
    The nurse consults his computerized records and tells him it's because of his BMI.
    "Really? Why?"
    "It says here your BMI is just under a quarter of a million."
    Someone had recorded his height as 1.8 centimetres instead of 1.8 metres.

    (Disclaimer--I've never seen an electronic clinical record system that would accept such clearly erroneous data input. But it makes a good story.)

    Grant Hutchison
    Confirms something I have long believed, I'm not overweight, I'm underheight.
    At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

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  27. #1497
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    Quote Originally Posted by Swift View Post
    Confirms something I have long believed, I'm not overweight, I'm underheight.
    Ah yes, measure once, eat twice.

  28. #1498
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gillianren View Post
    My question here is, "Are they using BMI as a shorthand for obesity?" Because that's common and something we shouldn't necessarily do.
    I wonder if anyone has tried to create a measure of obesity that is better than BMI. I'm sure there are, and it may be that we don't use them so commonly just because BMI is very easy to do and partly effective though not so great, whereas others (which take into account muscle mass, for example) are more complicated to measure.
    As above, so below

  29. #1499
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I wonder if anyone has tried to create a measure of obesity that is better than BMI.
    Well, first define obesity. It's not straightforward, and as a result the word really isn't that useful, in medical terms.
    There certainly are many ways of estimating body fat. Some of them involve equations more complicated than BMI, by putting together various body circumferences, for instance; some of them involve measuring body density, because fat has a lower density than muscle and bone; the bathroom scales that tell you your body fat percentage use electrical impedance; and the gold standard is a DEXA scan.
    But even knowing your precise percentage of body fat isn't enough to give a good measurement of the associated health risk---intra-abdominal fat is metabolically worse than hip fat; neck fat is more dangerous than arm fat.
    In my last few years of work I anaesthetized for weight-reduction surgery, among other things, and the clinicians involved in assessing and preparing people for such surgery would weigh (pardon the pun) all these different factors in their management plans. BMI was a route into that sort of assessment, but not necessarily the only route. A very high BMI has a very good sensitivity for the health hazards of high body fat--if your BMI is above a certain threshold there's a high probability you'll have health problems relating to your weight. But it has poor specificity--when you set your BMI threshold high enough to get good sensitivity, you inevitably miss a number of people with lower BMIs who nevertheless have problematic fat distributions or other poor health outcomes relating to body fat.

    Basically, BMI is a quick and easy screening tool that lets you target public health interventions--it works well at a population level. But for individual health care, you do something more complicated.

    Grant Hutchison

  30. #1500
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    Usain Bolt's BMI is apparently 24.5. Dwayne Johnson's is 34. And that's even before getting into its obvious failings when it comes to measuring women.
    _____________________________________________
    Gillian

    "Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

    "You can't erase icing."

    "I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

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