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Thread: The COVID-19 Discussion Thread (OTB)

  1. #1891
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    The State of South Australia has now also gone into lockdown following a few cases (5) of the Delta variant of Covid. These cases are also suspected to have been transmitted initially in Sydney. The early lockdown is hoped to cut the spread off before it becomes a significant threat. Sydney has managed to keep the daily cases to under 100 for the last few days and Victoria has not recorded more than 16 new daily cases so it is hoped that the trend is positive. This means that around 14 Million of Australia's 25 Million population is now under lockdown. This is the worst situation since mid 2020.

    One good sign is that shipments of Pfizer vaccine from overseas are finally beginning to ramp up. The use of AZ has also been widened to some 'younger' age groups in NSW as the risk 'pendulum' has swung significantly from a few months ago following the first deaths this year from Covid.

    (Our experiences with the US/Canada border was remarkably pleasant. But, as I have written a fair while ago, this was probably because we were only on a short boat trip to an island in the middle of the St Lawrence River.)

  2. #1892
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    A cruise ship is passing our house. It's the first since September of 2019, basically 22 months ago.
    A hopeful sign.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  3. #1893
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    As England has now shut down most legal restrictions on people's behaviour, they're going to be increasingly reliant on how people feel about case numbers (still rising in England), and what actions people take as a result. With that background, there was a neat quote in The Times today, from Oliver Johnson, director of the Institute for Statistical Science in Bristol. He says: "if enough people believe it’ll all be fine it may well not be, but if enough people believe it won’t it might be".

    Grant Hutchison
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  4. #1894
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    Quote Originally Posted by Swift View Post
    I suspect very large error bars on that poll.
    Always expect the Spanish Inquisition poll errors on the News.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  5. #1895
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    As England has now shut down most legal restrictions on people's behaviour, they're going to be increasingly reliant on how people feel about case numbers (still rising in England), and what actions people take as a result. With that background, there was a neat quote in The Times today, from Oliver Johnson, director of the Institute for Statistical Science in Bristol. He says: "if enough people believe it’ll all be fine it may well not be, but if enough people believe it won’t it might be".

    Grant Hutchison
    I had to read that twice. Very good. Too many people in parts of the USA believing the former.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  6. #1896
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    Masks are on clearance most places I go, or really cheap sale at least--I bought a two-pack yesterday because $1 for two masks cost me less in money than my time to sew masks is worth--I'd said I wasn't buying anymore because I actually have a really good pattern now and goodness knows I've got the scrap material to sew with!
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    "Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

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  7. #1897
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gillianren View Post
    Masks are on clearance most places I go, or really cheap sale at least--I bought a two-pack yesterday because $1 for two masks cost me less in money than my time to sew masks is worth--I'd said I wasn't buying anymore because I actually have a really good pattern now and goodness knows I've got the scrap material to sew with!
    Do you know the situation in Seattle? We're on schedule for a August cruise departure from there and I was wondering the current mandates.

  8. #1898
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    Quote Originally Posted by bknight View Post
    Do you know the situation in Seattle? We're on schedule for a August cruise departure from there and I was wondering the current mandates.
    Saw a ship going out past our house yesterday evening and another coming in when I got up to take a leak in the middle of the night. Looks like you're good.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  9. #1899
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    Saw a ship going out past our house yesterday evening and another coming in when I got up to take a leak in the middle of the night. Looks like you're good.
    Thanks last year was a cancellation for us and a lot of other people.

  10. #1900
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    As England has now shut down most legal restrictions on people's behaviour, they're going to be increasingly reliant on how people feel about case numbers (still rising in England), and what actions people take as a result. With that background, there was a neat quote in The Times today, from Oliver Johnson, director of the Institute for Statistical Science in Bristol. He says: "if enough people believe it’ll all be fine it may well not be, but if enough people believe it won’t it might be".
    Pretty much all restrictions here in the US have been lifted as well, and I have to say, I'm seeing far more of the former sort of people than the latter.
    Conserve energy. Commute with the Hamiltonian.

  11. #1901
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grey View Post
    Pretty much all restrictions here in the US have been lifted as well, and I have to say, I'm seeing far more of the former sort of people than the latter.
    Potential sampling error, there.
    The ones who believe it won't be fine are harder to observe, because they're all still sitting at home.

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  12. #1902
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Potential sampling error, there.
    The ones who believe it won't be fine are harder to observe, because they're all still sitting at home.
    Fair point. I myself am mostly staying home, working from here, and still using curbside pickup for groceries, and running the occasional errand. Viewing from the outside of stores, I feel like the number of people I see shopping normally is close to the level I remember from pre-pandemic, but that was a long time ago, so I'll acknowledge that my assessment may be off.
    Conserve energy. Commute with the Hamiltonian.

  13. #1903
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grey View Post
    Fair point. I myself am mostly staying home, working from here, and still using curbside pickup for groceries, and running the occasional errand. Viewing from the outside of stores, I feel like the number of people I see shopping normally is close to the level I remember from pre-pandemic, but that was a long time ago, so I'll acknowledge that my assessment may be off.
    I doubt if it is that far off--I was really just indulging in a subversive bit of humour.

    Similarly, I'm pretty sure that dolphins do occasionally save the lives of the occasional distressed swimmer by pushing them towards the shore, because dolphins are just helpful and kind creatures. They're almost certainly not pushing an equal number of distressed swimmers out into the open ocean, where we never hear from them again.
    Almost certainly.

    Grant Hutchison
    Last edited by grant hutchison; 2021-Jul-21 at 03:29 PM. Reason: typo
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  14. #1904
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    Quote Originally Posted by bknight View Post
    Do you know the situation in Seattle? We're on schedule for a August cruise departure from there and I was wondering the current mandates.
    The mask mandate has been lifted in King County. 70% of eligible adults who live in the county are vaccinated.
    _____________________________________________
    Gillian

    "Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

    "You can't erase icing."

    "I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

  15. #1905
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    Quote Originally Posted by bknight View Post
    Thanks last year was a cancellation for us and a lot of other people.
    My family had a canceled cruise as well. We got a puppy instead.

    I wanted to name him Cruz, but was quickly shouted down.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  16. #1906
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gillianren View Post
    The mask mandate has been lifted in King County. 70% of eligible adults who live in the county are vaccinated.
    That's good we both are vaccinated, but nervous about late cancellations.

  17. #1907
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    My family had a canceled cruise as well. We got a puppy instead.

    I wanted to name him Cruz, but was quickly shouted down.
    Should have stood your ground.

  18. #1908
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    My family had a canceled cruise as well. We got a puppy instead.
    Mrs EV bought tickets to see the Blue Man Group in March 2020 as a birthday present for me. Were still waiting for them to reschedule the show.
    I may have many faults, but being wrong ain't one of them. - Jimmy Hoffa

  19. #1909
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    Quote Originally Posted by Extravoice View Post
    Mrs EV bought tickets to see the Blue Man Group in March 2020 as a birthday present for me. We’re still waiting for them to reschedule the show.
    No new dates yet? I just wasn't interested. But for the sake of fairness, I will say that my vacation last year also fell through. In this I do not yet know how it will turn out.

  20. #1910
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    56,525 new USA cases yesterday according to Worldometer. Wow. That's the most since April.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  21. #1911
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    56,525 new USA cases yesterday according to Worldometer. Wow. That's the most since April.
    4th parties?

  22. #1912
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    Quote Originally Posted by Extravoice View Post
    Mrs EV bought tickets to see the Blue Man Group in March 2020 as a birthday present for me. We’re still waiting for them to reschedule the show.
    We had purchased, I think in late 2019, tickets to see James Taylor and Jackson Browne in July 2020. That got postponed; IIRC it was just in limbo for most of last year, and earlier this year got rescheduled to July 31, 2021. The venue is an outdoor amphitheater, so I think it should be pretty safe. It will be our first concert in about a year and a half.
    At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

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  23. #1913
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    Quote Originally Posted by bknight View Post
    4th parties?
    I assume so. A lot of unvaccinated people treating the guidelines for the vaccinated as applying to them as well and gathering in large numbers, which is exactly why I'm not going to faire in two weeks.
    _____________________________________________
    Gillian

    "Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

    "You can't erase icing."

    "I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

  24. #1914
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gillianren View Post
    I assume so. A lot of unvaccinated people treating the guidelines for the vaccinated as applying to them as well and gathering in large numbers, which is exactly why I'm not going to faire in two weeks.
    How about the market near the docks ( I am unable to remember the name)?

  25. #1915
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    Quote Originally Posted by Swift View Post
    We had purchased, I think in late 2019, tickets to see James Taylor and Jackson Browne in July 2020. That got postponed; IIRC it was just in limbo for most of last year, and earlier this year got rescheduled to July 31, 2021. The venue is an outdoor amphitheater, so I think it should be pretty safe. It will be our first concert in about a year and a half.
    Please let me know how it goes. We have tickets for a different outdoor amphitheater on Aug 10
    I may have many faults, but being wrong ain't one of them. - Jimmy Hoffa

  26. #1916
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    The COVID-19 Discussion Thread (OTB)

    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    56,525 new USA cases yesterday according to Worldometer. Wow. That's the most since April.
    State-wide, cases are increasing pretty rapidly.
    Were at about 70% vaccinated here, so still low compared to some places.

    This weeks report for my work facility is three times the (low) number it has been for the past several weeks.

    I had to go in and do lab work today. Im back to wearing my mask and goggles. About 20% of the staff were masked.
    I may have many faults, but being wrong ain't one of them. - Jimmy Hoffa

  27. #1917
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    Quote Originally Posted by bknight View Post
    4th parties?
    Were having a surge in Japan too, even though people are behaving the same as before basically. Im afraid that it may be because the delta variant is more infectious and that vaccines have lost some of their effectiveness against it. Australia is also seeing a recurrence.
    As above, so below

  28. #1918
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gillianren View Post
    I assume so. A lot of unvaccinated people treating the guidelines for the vaccinated as applying to them as well and gathering in large numbers, which is exactly why I'm not going to faire in two weeks.
    Given the situation, with a variant that vaccines are less effective against, at least in terms of the risk of infection, I wonder why they made different guidelines for vaccinated people. Here the assumption is that everybody in public places should be masked and maintain distance (though people dont follow the distancing so well).
    As above, so below

  29. #1919
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    We’re having a surge in Japan too, even though people are behaving the same as before basically. I’m afraid that it may be because the delta variant is more infectious and that vaccines have lost some of their effectiveness against it. Australia is also seeing a recurrence.
    Yes the outbreak in Sydney (New South Wales) is proving very difficult to control. After a few days of plateauing the numbers have jumped there again. The other states who have been in lockdown seem to be getting on top of the situation so far. As usual the lack of vaccine is a major concern. The use of the AstraZeneca vaccine has been widened but imports of the Pfizer one have still not fully ramped up. The supply situation is supposed to improve in August/September. Vaccinations are being done in record numbers but there are still far too many people who are unable to be vaccinated.

    Without going too much into boring local political matters, the NSW government has been less supportive of lockdowns than all the other states and it is considered by many, including me, that they were too slow to implement the current one. They obviously have a different view on this matter.
    Last edited by ozduck; 2021-Jul-23 at 05:54 AM.

  30. #1920
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    Quote Originally Posted by ozduck View Post
    Without going too much into boring local political matters, the NSW government has been less supportive of lockdowns than all the other states and it is considered by many, including me, that they were too slow to implement the current one. They obviously have a different view on this matter.
    By comparison, restrictions in California were lifted on June 15, we’ve had an increase primarily due to the Delta variant, but there is no suggestion of limitations again, including a statement that they aren’t considering reimposing a mask requirement. We are doing better than some states, with a relatively high vaccination rate, but numbers are going up, not down.

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