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Thread: The COVID-19 Discussion Thread (OTB)

  1. #211
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    Hospitalizations for COVID-19 had been trending down in this area for the past two weeks, but have gone up in the past two days.

    I wonder if this is an echo of Motherís Day when someone people couldnít resist physical interaction.

    If so, I donít look forward to two weeks from now, as many people were out and about for Memorial Day.


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  2. #212
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Undoubtedly, definitively YES to both.
    Seasonal flu varies from year to year, but the basic reproduction number, R0 (a measure of transmissibility), usually sits around 1.3. For SARS-CoV-2 (the virus causing COVID-19 disease), I've seen estimates as low as 1.5 and as high as 5, but in most countries it seems to sit between 3 and 4.
    Case fatality rate (a measure of virulence) for seasonal flu is about 0.1%. It's notoriously difficult to pin down case fatality rates for a new disease, but I've essentially never seen an estimate that low for COVID-19. When we look at hospitalized patients it sits about 3 or 4%; if we test people with milder symptoms about 1% or a little under.

    If you want to make a comparison with other diseases, you can plot a chart of CFR against R0 for multiple diseases and see where COVID-19 sits. Here is an example, created in March during the early stages of the pandemic, showing the then-current range of estimates of the two parameters for COVID-19--but you can easily plot current figures for your own part of the world and see how they compare.

    Grant Hutchison
    I thought I might revisit the questions. I continually get bombarded by this pandemic is a fraud/conspiracy from the drug companies mostly since they would gain the most by a pandemic.

    Why do you believe there is a large amount of CT surrounding this episode?

  3. #213
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    Because it's something people can't control. The drug companies would only benefit if there were an effective treatment; so far, there isn't. Certain world leaders have also jumped on the "it's a hoax" bandwagon, even if most of them are trying to figure out how to climb back off at this point, and that hasn't helped. (Gee, what did people think would happen when they elected someone who as occasionally "just asked questions" about vaccines?) We are for the most part doing exactly what epidemiologists have told us to, and there are still cases around because "for the most part" isn't good enough, and people who haven't left the house have been getting it from their housemates who have to, and what with one thing and another, there's a lot of room for ignorance.
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  4. #214
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gillianren View Post
    Because it's something people can't control. The drug companies would only benefit if there were an effective treatment; so far, there isn't. Certain world leaders have also jumped on the "it's a hoax" bandwagon, even if most of them are trying to figure out how to climb back off at this point, and that hasn't helped. (Gee, what did people think would happen when they elected someone who as occasionally "just asked questions" about vaccines?) We are for the most part doing exactly what epidemiologists have told us to, and there are still cases around because "for the most part" isn't good enough, and people who haven't left the house have been getting it from their housemates who have to, and what with one thing and another, there's a lot of room for ignorance.
    Good description as usual except the part about elected officials where this is clearly an opinion.
    But I as always respect your opinions.
    The reason I asked, a friend who is a small business owner is losing a lot of capital daily/weekly/monthly and he is trying to latch onto any bit of opinion (that he probably has) to end the moratorium of stay at home or business shut downs.

  5. #215
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    Quote Originally Posted by publiusr View Post
    I was thinking about Memorial Day, which honors the war dead...how many U-Boat commanders or pilots who flew off the decks of the Hiryu WISH they did half as much economic damage as COVID.
    I think it's fair to assume that they would have wished so. And on the other hand, the pilots who flew the raids over Dresden and Tokyo would have gotten that wish, since the damage to Germany and Japan was clearly larger than that of COVID-19.
    As above, so below

  6. #216
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    From next week there will be dramatic easing of restrictions in Western Australia. Almost all business will be allowed to operate.These include beauticians,nail salons, galleries, museums, theatres, cinemas, gyms and health clubs. Full contact sport will also be allowed. The main restriction is that there will be a 100 person limit on premises except for large multi room premises which can have a maximum of 300 people.

    Also, for the first time since the shutdowns began we will be able to move freely across most of the state. Some isolated areas with large vulnerable Aboriginal communities will remain biosecurity zones. Interstate and overseas borders currently remain closed. Around 85% of all infections that have been recorded here were related to overseas travel with the major source being cruise ships.

    This relaxation has been possible because we have not had anyone in hospital due to Covid-19 for over a week. The only new cases for the last few weeks have been either returning Australians doing their compulsory 14 day quarantine locked down in hotels and the crew members of a foreign livestock ship who have been restricted to their ship or are in quarantine.There has been no community transmission for over a month.

  7. #217
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    Quote Originally Posted by bknight View Post
    Good description as usual except the part about elected officials where this is clearly an opinion.
    But I as always respect your opinions.
    The reason I asked, a friend who is a small business owner is losing a lot of capital daily/weekly/monthly and he is trying to latch onto any bit of opinion (that he probably has) to end the moratorium of stay at home or business shut downs.
    If you don't trust epidemiologists about vaccines, why would you trust them about any other disease? And if you're in a position of power where you can officially ignore the advice of epidemiologists, you're not going to handle a pandemic properly. An opinion, yes, but one that follows the evidence.

    As for small business owners, yeah. My faire boss is latching onto those, too, because he's genuinely worried about continuing to pay his rent, about continuing to be able to eat, and all sorts of things like that. I get that. But it also means he latches onto the opinions of, for example, urban fantasy authors who claim that there's no evidence the lockdown has done any good. And then goes into "Well, he said he didn't know why anyone is listening to him." If you don't know that, maybe don't say anything?
    _____________________________________________
    Gillian

    "Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

    "You can't erase icing."

    "I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

  8. #218
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    The doorbell rang last week and it was some neighbors who had sewn masks for everyone on the block. Having noticed our Doctor Who inspired license plates, they made special Who ones for us.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  9. #219
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    The doorbell rang last week and it was some neighbors who had sewn masks for everyone on the block. Having noticed our Doctor Who inspired license plates, they made special Who ones for us.
    Very thoughtfull. They sound like the right sort of neighbours to have.

  10. #220
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    The doorbell rang last week and it was some neighbors who had sewn masks for everyone on the block. Having noticed our Doctor Who inspired license plates, they made special Who ones for us.
    That's very cool.

  11. #221
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    Mrs Extravoice has been putting her sewing skills to work, and her latest masks have a shape similar to the N95 cup masks. These are much more comfortable than the flat surgical style. They are made from some cloth that has a paisley pattern, which look like germs (ok, not viruses) to me.


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  12. #222
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    I was interested to see a big bin of masks for sale by the pharmacy line at the store yesterday! I probably should have picked up a couple. And definitely should wash the ones we've been using.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  13. #223
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    If anybody is in need, I continue to have an enormous stash of fabric here.
    _____________________________________________
    Gillian

    "Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

    "You can't erase icing."

    "I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

  14. #224
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    The doorbell rang last week and it was some neighbors who had sewn masks for everyone on the block. Having noticed our Doctor Who inspired license plates, they made special Who ones for us.
    I assume Dr. Who masks are bigger on the inside than they are on the outside.
    At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

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  15. #225
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    I was interested to see a big bin of masks for sale by the pharmacy line at the store yesterday! I probably should have picked up a couple. And definitely should wash the ones we've been using.
    We.ve had two neighbors who made masks and distributed them. One even had a pocket inside if one would want to add more filtration.

  16. #226
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    Had my first professional haircut in 13 weeks today.

    When the appointment was made two weeks ago, this was the week my team was supposed to be in the office; but we all decided not to be, so I had to drive into town just for the cut.

    Support local businesses, I guess. She wore a mask, and washed her hands after manipulating the heater (thermostat). We've had no new cases in the country for 11 days so I figure I'm safe.


    Dropped off a birthday gift at my Daughters' place this evening. Got a bottle of adult beverage on the way home; at the bottle shop made my first use of the Government supplied tracing app on my phone. Scanned a QR code on a table by the bottle shop door. Very easy.

    Good luck to all.
    Measure once, cut twice. Practice makes perfect.

  17. #227
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    Here they are going to allow barber shops/hair salons to open under some restrictions soon but we still have quite a lot of cases, so it will be awhile before I would feel the risk is reasonably low for that. Iíd guess it will be months for the numbers to really drop. Failing that, Iíd accept good evidence for some effective treatments that significantly drop the risk of ending up in ICU.

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  18. #228
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    My wife has a hair appointment on Friday. She's looking forward to it.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  19. #229
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    Barbers and hair salons have been open around here for a week or two. My wife went to have her hair colored last week and her stylist wasn't apparently wearing a mask. I'm very unhappy; if I was her I would have told him to put one on or I'm leaving (I don't know if it is required around here or not). She didn't, though she wasn't happy about it. At least she wore a mask.

    I don't care if my hair is long and I don't color my gray. I'm giving it a couple more weeks before I go get it cut, to make sure we don't get a second peak.
    At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

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  20. #230
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    Quote Originally Posted by bknight View Post
    We.ve had two neighbors who made masks and distributed them. One even had a pocket inside if one would want to add more filtration.
    That's the kind I make. They also have a little slot inside for a nose wire.
    _____________________________________________
    Gillian

    "Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

    "You can't erase icing."

    "I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

  21. #231
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    Barbers and their customers could wear snorkels with air tubes leading to parts of the room several feet apart so they'd be breathing different air.

  22. #232
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    The current social turbulence has brought large groups of people physically close together, forcefully expelling air, and could trigger a "second wave". We'll see in a few weeks what the result is.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  23. #233
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chuck View Post
    Barbers and their customers could wear snorkels with air tubes leading to parts of the room several feet apart so they'd be breathing different air.
    Two tubes, actually, with valves, one for inspired and one for expired air--otherwise you just end up rebreathing your own expired gas. And you'd need a constant flow of air down the inspiratory limb, because the resistance to breathing through a long tube is quite high. So essentially separate pressurized air supplies through long anaesthetic delivery circuits, with reservoir bags, blow-off valves, and a tight-fitting mask strapped to each person's face. You'd then need to replace the mask and parts of the breathing circuit for each customer. So not straightforward, failure-prone, and likely to induce a degree of claustrophobia and discomfort.

    Grant Hutchison

  24. #234
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    Maybe just the barber would wear the apparatus.

  25. #235
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Two tubes, actually, with valves, one for inspired and one for expired air--otherwise you just end up rebreathing your own expired gas. And you'd need a constant flow of air down the inspiratory limb, because the resistance to breathing through a long tube is quite high. So essentially separate pressurized air supplies through long anaesthetic delivery circuits, with reservoir bags, blow-off valves, and a tight-fitting mask strapped to each person's face. You'd then need to replace the mask and parts of the breathing circuit for each customer. So not straightforward, failure-prone, and likely to induce a degree of claustrophobia and discomfort.

    Grant Hutchison
    The Heath Robinson in me has woken up. Imagine two balloons, one prefilled with air, the other deflated and weak walled. The barber breathes from the first and blows into the second. They are located on a modified hat. Of course the barber must work fast!
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
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  26. #236
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    I'm rather pleased to learn that the Japanese city of Yamato has announced a "ban" (really just a publicity campaign) to discourage people from walking in public places while looking at their phone screens. That has always been an inconvenience to others who needed to step out of the way of the oblivious phone user, but now that stepping out of the way involves a two-metre detour (with knock-on disruption to others), these people are a significant potential problem.

    Grant Hutchison

  27. #237
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    The COVID-19 Discussion Thread (OTB)

    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    I'm rather pleased to learn that the Japanese city of Yamato has announced a "ban" (really just a publicity campaign) to discourage people from walking in public places while looking at their phone screens. That has always been an inconvenience to others who needed to step out of the way of the oblivious phone user, but now that stepping out of the way involves a two-metre detour (with knock-on disruption to others), these people are a significant potential problem.

    Grant Hutchison
    You just need something more distracting than their phone:

    https://dks.scene7.com/is/image/Golf...=600&fmt=pjpeg

    Or you could make coughing sounds.


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  28. #238
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    I'm rather pleased to learn that the Japanese city of Yamato has announced a "ban" (really just a publicity campaign) to discourage people from walking in public places while looking at their phone screens. That has always been an inconvenience to others who needed to step out of the way of the oblivious phone user, but now that stepping out of the way involves a two-metre detour (with knock-on disruption to others), these people are a significant potential problem.
    Yeah, it's actually quite an issue here in general, even before the pandemic. A lot of people use public transportation, and as you can imagine, it's not really a great idea to be looking at your smartphone while walking on the train platform--but people do it all the time. I've actually seen two instances (one a near-miss) where a person got on the wrong side of the escalator while looking at their phone. One was a woman, and I was coming down the escalator that she was about to get on. I shouted out that it was the wrong way, but she didn't hear me fast enough and almost fell when she stepped onto it.
    As above, so below

  29. #239
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    I ordered some razor combs on Amazon, a 6-pack for $8.78, and gave myself a haircut this morning. No one has laughed, screamed, fainted, or run away upon seeing me so I'll call it a success.

  30. #240
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    My wife was able to get her hair done this morning for the first time since February. She's thrilled. I had never seen her hair so long. I just wish I could grow some.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

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