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Thread: The COVID-19 Discussion Thread (OTB)

  1. #181
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    All sorts of things.
    It's quite a complicated neurocognitive task, so it's a sensitive screening test for impairment of various bits of the brain.

    Grant Hutchison
    From the link:
    A clock-drawing is considered small if it measures less than 1.5 inches, and large if it measures more than 5 inches.
    So I just measured mine. It's exactly 1.5 inches. Whew! The piece of paper was only about 2.5 inches wide, from a notepad I use for shopping lists.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  2. #182
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    From the link:

    So I just measured mine. It's exactly 1.5 inches. Whew! The piece of paper was only about 2.5 inches wide, from a notepad I use for shopping lists.
    My father-in-law is 83 and has advanced dementia. He was given that exam last year, which includes drawing the clock and other tests, and scored a 23 out of 30. He bunched the numbers at the top of the clock. That was in July and today I don't think he could even draw the circle.

  3. #183
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    I got very good at counting backwards from a hundred by sevens, when I was getting regular tests from the state to see if I still qualified for state disability for reasons of mental health issues.
    _____________________________________________
    Gillian

    "Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

    "You can't erase icing."

    "I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

  4. #184
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    Back on topic, a sign of the times:
    Click image for larger version. 

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    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  5. #185
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    Quote Originally Posted by schlaugh View Post
    That was in July and today I don't think he could even draw the circle.
    I couldn't draw a circle when I was ten years old, and I can't draw one today

  6. #186
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    Comic scenes outside our local pharmacy today, with a small queue, spaced at two metre intervals, on the pavement outside.
    I was about to step into the road to pass them at an appropriate distance when I noticed a young woman, engrossed in her mobile phone, coming in the opposite direction, on a line that would sweep down the length of the queue towards me. So I paused to see what avoiding manoeuvre, if any, she would take. But she carried on obliviously. Until, that is, she drew abreast of the first man in the queue, who shouted more or less directly into her face, "Oi! Go around!"
    She jumped sideways so quickly she slammed into the side of a parked car. I feel sorry that she was frightened, but do really feel that these phone-and-text folk are a bit of a menace to other pedestrians at the best of times, and doubly so now.

    Grant Hutchison

  7. #187
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Comic scenes outside our local pharmacy today, with a small queue, spaced at two metre intervals, on the pavement outside.
    I was about to step into the road to pass them at an appropriate distance when I noticed a young woman, engrossed in her mobile phone, coming in the opposite direction, on a line that would sweep down the length of the queue towards me. So I paused to see what avoiding manoeuvre, if any, she would take. But she carried on obliviously. Until, that is, she drew abreast of the first man in the queue, who shouted more or less directly into her face, "Oi! Go around!"
    She jumped sideways so quickly she slammed into the side of a parked car. I feel sorry that she was frightened, but do really feel that these phone-and-text folk are a bit of a menace to other pedestrians at the best of times, and doubly so now.

    Grant Hutchison
    I seem to remember that you are a doctor. I don't know if you are still practicing, but I'll ask anyway.
    In your professional opinion is this virus more contagious/virilent than the normal run of the mill flu virus?

  8. #188
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    Quote Originally Posted by bknight View Post
    In your professional opinion is this virus more contagious/virilent than the normal run of the mill flu virus?
    Undoubtedly, definitively YES to both.
    Seasonal flu varies from year to year, but the basic reproduction number, R0 (a measure of transmissibility), usually sits around 1.3. For SARS-CoV-2 (the virus causing COVID-19 disease), I've seen estimates as low as 1.5 and as high as 5, but in most countries it seems to sit between 3 and 4.
    Case fatality rate (a measure of virulence) for seasonal flu is about 0.1%. It's notoriously difficult to pin down case fatality rates for a new disease, but I've essentially never seen an estimate that low for COVID-19. When we look at hospitalized patients it sits about 3 or 4%; if we test people with milder symptoms about 1% or a little under.

    If you want to make a comparison with other diseases, you can plot a chart of CFR against R0 for multiple diseases and see where COVID-19 sits. Here is an example, created in March during the early stages of the pandemic, showing the then-current range of estimates of the two parameters for COVID-19--but you can easily plot current figures for your own part of the world and see how they compare.

    Grant Hutchison

  9. #189
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Undoubtedly, definitively YES to both.
    Seasonal flu varies from year to year, but the basic reproduction number, R0 (a measure of transmissibility), usually sits around 1.3. For SARS-CoV-2 (the virus causing COVID-19 disease), I've seen estimates as low as 1.5 and as high as 5, but in most countries it seems to sit between 3 and 4.
    Case fatality rate (a measure of virulence) for seasonal flu is about 0.1%. It's notoriously difficult to pin down case fatality rates for a new disease, but I've essentially never seen an estimate that low for COVID-19. When we look at hospitalized patients it sits about 3 or 4%; if we test people with milder symptoms about 1% or a little under.

    If you want to make a comparison with other diseases, you can plot a chart of CFR against R0 for multiple diseases and see where COVID-19 sits. Here is an example, created in March during the early stages of the pandemic, showing the then-current range of estimates of the two parameters for COVID-19--but you can easily plot current figures for your own part of the world and see how they compare.

    Grant Hutchison
    I am unable to find the information you suggest, however currently in Texas we have 43851 cases, but I think it may be higher due to the relief bill. Of those 24487 recovered and 1216 were fatal, giving about a 2.77%.

  10. #190
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    From Monday school attendance in Western Australia will be compulsory for all primary & secondary students, following a couple of weeks of voluntary attendance. Lots of other measures will also be relaxed in a staged and monitored removal of restrictions. Both the State and National borders will remain subject to strict quarantine measures with very little movement across them allowed.

  11. #191
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    Quite a long time ago, in the endless "diseases and pandemics" thread, Copernicus suggested that dogs might be trained to detect COVID-19, as they have done with other diseases.
    A trial is now starting in the UK.

    Grant HUtchison

  12. #192
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    Quote Originally Posted by ozduck View Post
    From Monday school attendance in Western Australia will be compulsory for all primary & secondary students, following a couple of weeks of voluntary attendance. Lots of other measures will also be relaxed in a staged and monitored removal of restrictions. Both the State and National borders will remain subject to strict quarantine measures with very little movement across them allowed.
    Meanwhile, our district is sending out information about what we're doing with the suspended school year, including how it'll play out for graduating seniors.

    A September event for my Ren faire boss has been canceled. Our big August one is listed as still on, but I'm not sure for how much longer. This is really going to hurt him financially.
    _____________________________________________
    Gillian

    "Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

    "You can't erase icing."

    "I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

  13. #193
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    Waiting to see if DragonCon in Atlanta, Labor Day weekend, is still on. We have tickets.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  14. #194
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Waiting to see if DragonCon in Atlanta, Labor Day weekend, is still on. We have tickets.
    Have you been to a DragonCon before?

  15. #195
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    Even if DragonCon is on, it doesn't mean attending is a good idea.

  16. #196
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gillianren View Post
    Meanwhile, our district is sending out information about what we're doing with the suspended school year, including how it'll play out for graduating seniors.

    A September event for my Ren faire boss has been canceled. Our big August one is listed as still on, but I'm not sure for how much longer. This is really going to hurt him financially.
    My grandkids have been really happy to return to school. As one is first grade and the other in kindergarten their scholastic needs are less affected than others. There is still a lot of talk about exactly how the graduating process will go. This is still up in the air as all the states are following different paths in re-commencing schooling. But all Year 12 students, final year of secondary education, Australia-wide will receive a certificate (called an ATAR) to allow University entry, vocational education etc.

    The financial effects of this pandemic are going to linger for years.
    Last edited by ozduck; 2020-May-17 at 07:09 AM.

  17. #197
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    With hotter weather coming—some false positives might come from the pistol grip thermometers.

  18. #198
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    Quote Originally Posted by ozduck View Post
    My grandkids have been really happy to return to school. As one is first grade and the other in kindergarten their scholastic needs are less affected than others. There is still a lot of talk about exactly how the graduating process will go. This is still up in the air as all the states are following different paths in re-commencing schooling. But all Year 12 students, final year of secondary education, Australia-wide will receive a certificate (called an ATAR) to allow University entry, vocational education etc.

    The financial effects of this pandemic are going to linger for years.
    And it's not difficult to imagine how much worse it could be if we hadn't taken things seriously relatively quickly.
    _____________________________________________
    Gillian

    "Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

    "You can't erase icing."

    "I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

  19. #199
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    Quote Originally Posted by geonuc View Post
    Have you been to a DragonCon before?
    I have been to 4-5 of them and enjoyed them mightily. When I was with TSR many in the staff would go there, but I did not until my third marriage. We have hoped to go every other year, but... we will see. We are also trying to buy a house, and DragonCon's prices might interfere with that.

    Well, and COVID-19 would be a huge pain, which makes me nervous. It is CROWDED there, just packed.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  20. #200
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    I have been to 4-5 of them and enjoyed them mightily. When I was with TSR many in the staff would go there, but I did not until my third marriage. We have hoped to go every other year, but... we will see. We are also trying to buy a house, and DragonCon's prices might interfere with that.

    Well, and COVID-19 would be a huge pain, which makes me nervous. It is CROWDED there, just packed.
    Yeah, I've been twelve or thirteen times. Just wanted to make sure you knew what you're getting into. Myself, I wouldn't get near the convention prior to a reliable treatment for CV-19 being developed. Maybe not until that and a vaccine is available.

  21. #201
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    Today I could have been back in the office.

    The managers divided everyone into blue team or red team with the idea that each week, blue or red is in the office and the other works from home. But - no "force" to make anyone come in, we're welcome to stay home if we want.

    My squad's in blue team, which has the office this week; but we all agreed to give it another week. Next week will be red, so I'll be back in on April 1st.


    Got a text from my barber today, scheduling my next cut for April 2nd. Funnily enough I may be in town that day.
    Measure once, cut twice. Practice makes perfect.

  22. #202
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    April??? I’m guessing you mean June.

  23. #203
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    Quote Originally Posted by schlaugh View Post
    April??? I’m guessing you mean June.
    Yes! Don't know how I managed that. (I do a puzzle every day for the team, where the answer is always how many days until xmas. Grew from writing on the whiteboard days to xmas, on the first day back this year after the xmas/new year holiday. It does sometimes hurt my head looking at the day of the month getting +1 but the answer to the puzzle being -1. Maybe I applied -1 to the Month??)
    Measure once, cut twice. Practice makes perfect.

  24. #204
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    April of 2021 does seem reasonable for a next haircut, but the scheduling of it made it seem it was more likely an error.

  25. #205
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chuck View Post
    Even if DragonCon is on, it doesn't mean attending is a good idea.
    They will have Stormtrooper masks on, so no biggy. Even the eyes are covered—no touching of the face...and no facial recognition software problems for bank robbers.

    I can just see THE LANCET article on “The lack of SARS-COV2 among the 501st”

  26. #206
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    No Vulcans allowed. Mind-melds and neck pinches are high risk.

  27. #207
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    ((I was doubly dumb. June 1st is a public holiday (Queens' birthday observed). So won't be at the office then anyway!))
    Measure once, cut twice. Practice makes perfect.

  28. #208
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    The hit to the economy has come to my area.

    I'm working as a contractor at a bank, the majority of staff in my area are also contractors. Been nice to have no disruption to my work over the lock-down, and it all seemed quite stable, but now they've decided that while they can't reduce the head count they do need to reduce costs.

    So almost all of the roles will be advertised internally, hoping that the bulk of the contractors will take the jump to being permanent staff. Those that don't will be released and the left over roles advertised externally.

    I'm actually a permanent employee of another large firm who is body-shopping me; so I'll just go "home"; but there are a lot of distressed staff. People who do contracting know that work can be variable, but this is a bad time to be one of many looking for work.

    (A different local bank took another approach; they just "made" all the contractors take a 20% rate cut.)
    Measure once, cut twice. Practice makes perfect.

  29. #209
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    That stinks pzkpfw. I hope you weather this fine.
    At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

    All moderation in purple - The rules

  30. #210
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    Quote Originally Posted by pzkpfw View Post
    The hit to the economy has come to my area.
    I was thinking about Memorial Day, which honors the war dead...how many U-Boat commanders or pilots who flew off the decks of the Hiryu WISH they did half as much economic damage as COVID.

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