The COVID-19 Discussion Thread (OTB)

[PetersCreek]

I add my good wishes. I hope it continues to stay mild. On a side note, I wasn’t familiar with chimichurri sauce, but looking it up, it seems to have some ingredients I like. I’ll have to try it out.

It's addictive. I put it on salmon, quinoa, stir fry veggies, and use it as a dipping sauce.

Yes, it goes well with just a spoon too.

Pretty much the Argentinian version of pesto, I think. I first made it from a recipe for Argentinian flank steak and got hooked on it. I make extra so I can dip bread in it for a snack, jazz up plain rice, or use it as a sandwich as a spread.

[Solfe]

A few years ago, I posted a funny story about a husband who wasn't feeling good. His wife told him she was the mother of only 2 children, not the keeper of thermometers, and he needed to go find the thermometer all by himself. He comes back with 3 color coded thermometers, one hanging out of his mouth and asks "Why are they color coded?" His wife said, "You have a 1 in three chance of wanting to know the answer to that," which officially made her the mother of 2 children and the keeper of thermometers.

At the time of posting, several readers commented that people in their country didn't keep thermometers in the homes. Is that still the case?

[grant hutchison]

At the time of posting, several readers commented that people in their country didn't keep thermometers in the homes. Is that still the case?

Difficult to tell. Certainly there's been huge demand for infrared thermometers, but that's primarily driven by commercial sites that use temperature checks at the door, as a deeply pointless screening test. I've seen no reports of panic buying or shortages of domestic oral thermometers, and it seems like the sort of thing that would have made it into the news if it was happening.
The topic came up in a Zoom call with medical friends recently, and there was still no-one who confessed to owning one, or being interested in owning one. We're obviously not a representative group, though.

Grant Hutchison

[Noclevername]

Florida Man strikes again. UK strain shows up in the Sunshine State.

https://time.com/5925706/uk-coronavirus-strain-florida/

[Solfe]

Florida Man strikes again. UK strain shows up in the Sunshine State.

https://time.com/5925706/uk-coronavirus-strain-florida/

The "Memewhile in Florida" T-Shirts I made last year are getting less funny by the second.

(Edited "is" to "in", sorry. Pre-coffee post.)

[Trebuchet]

Difficult to tell. Certainly there's been huge demand for infrared thermometers, but that's primarily driven by commercial sites that use temperature checks at the door, as a deeply pointless screening test. I've seen no reports of panic buying or shortages of domestic oral thermometers, and it seems like the sort of thing that would have made it into the news if it was happening.
The topic came up in a Zoom call with medical friends recently, and there was still no-one who confessed to owning one, or being interested in owning one. We're obviously not a representative group, though.

Grant Hutchison

The local medical center does that. But the one in the other town where my wife has an appointment on the 14th does not, nor do they have the waiting room chairs spaced out like ours.
Our county has done very well on keeping the virus down in general.

[21st Century Schizoid Man]

The "Memewhile is Florida" T-Shirts I made last year are getting less funny by the second.

I think some of us dirty foreigners might require a bit of explanation.

[Noclevername]

I think some of us dirty foreigners might require a bit of explanation.

Some of us Yankees, too.

[Solfe]

Some of us Yankees, too.

I think some of us dirty foreigners might require a bit of explanation.

There is a collision of historical fact and internet fiction that works well together for the detriment of us all. In Florida, the government is remarkably open about what information you can obtain through the freedom of information act. This is a boon to researchers and so called "news agencies". If your working on historical research, use Florida data because it's mostly digitized and is super easy to get and use. You don't even need to ask. However, if you want to grab police arrest records, it's also trivially easy to get.

This sparked a meme called "Florida Man", the link is to Wikipedia. What the article misses is people get arrested anywhere and everywhere for any number of weird things, but Florida is unique in disseminating those records. It isn't that more weird things happen in Florida, it's data access that is weird. Most of these things are unsubstantiated and relatively raw and low quality data. Police reports are notoriously bad representation of facts and usually get distilled down to simplest details before they get used. Yet, the original records exist and are accessible. It's not that police are making things up, it more the fact that a criminal with a dog in a tutu isn't really germain to whatever is going to happen in a court, but the police mention it anyway for a variety of reasons which often don't have anything to do with law enforcement. Maybe they believe the dog is in trouble or the perp needs help. People capture these undistilled police reports and use them as "news articles" for websites. It happens so frequently that the term "Florida Man" is in the headlines because there is very little time to process one situation from another. It seems like it's everyone in Florida is nuts or there is one amazing guy profilifically encountering the police.

I became aware of this while writing a research paper on slavery in New York State. It was actually easier for me to reach out to a 90+ year old Professor in Paris, France for the data than it was to access the information from the New York State census data online, despite language barrier and decades of time since his research. Another time, I tried to research information on the operation of the KKK in Buffalo, NY. It turns out the evidence I needed was stored on paper, in boxes in the History Museum and not in any government archive. They required more information from me that I put on my tax forms just to access the room where I could hunt through thousands of boxes and papers for the data. They told me that they needed the info because the last person to make the request walked off with some of it. Armed with a book on the subject and the museum's paper sign out card, I discovered which one of the author's children had the data and requested the missing information from them. They had it in a box, didn't know what it was and returned it via me. It's now in a box in the basement of the museum until it is "processed" which means moved from the tiny room full of boxes to the giant room full of boxes. That was like 7 years ago and it still sits down there.

Since I had the same professor for both of these classes on New York State history, I had a shirt printed that read "Memewhile in Florida", which he greatly appreciated. He suffered through the New York State research problem as much as I did, if not more.

New York is an example of how you don't want to keep public data, while Florida is an example of how you shouldn't share data, in my opinion.

[Noclevername]

"In Florida" vs "is Florida", makes a difference too. Thanks for the context, Solfe.

[grant hutchison]

The local medical center does that. But the one in the other town where my wife has an appointment on the 14th does not, nor do they have the waiting room chairs spaced out like ours.
Our county has done very well on keeping the virus down in general.

The evidence does suggest that "temperature gun at the door" is more Covid theatre than Covid prevention. There's a lot of it about.
A recent Cochrane review found that

Temperature measurements, asking about international travel, exposure to known infected people and exposure to known or suspected infected people (6 studies, 14,741 people), incorrectly identified

• between 77 and 100 out of 100 infected people as health
• between 0 and 10 out of 100 healthy people as infected

Asking about symptoms plus temperature measurement (2 studies, 779 people), incorrectly identified:

• between 31 and 88 out of 100 infected people as health
• between 0 to 10 people out of 100 healthy people as infected

You can see that the nature of the screening questions makes a difference to the (pretty poor) pick-up of infected people.The moral of that story is that an isolated temperature measurement administered as you enter a shop or office does next to nothing to slow the spread of Covid.

People, space, time, place.

Grant Hutchison

[Gillianren]

My children have (of course) broken it, but we kept a thermometer in the house because small children get a lot of fevers in normal times (neither child has had one since March), and the difference between "they've been slightly warm for a couple of days" and "they're over 100" matters.

[Solfe]

Difficult to tell. Certainly there's been huge demand for infrared thermometers, but that's primarily driven by commercial sites that use temperature checks at the door, as a deeply pointless screening test.
Grant Hutchison

I resemble that observation. If my blood sugar goes too low, I look like I have a fever. Sweating, shakes, paleness, but no fever. I warn my co-workers about it because if they take my temp, it will likely be low. Too low. In the time of COVID, these are all pretty bad signs to be displaying in public. I just need breakfast.

[21st Century Schizoid Man]

There is a collision of historical fact and internet fiction that works well together for the detriment of us all. In Florida, the government is remarkably open about what information you can obtain through the freedom of information act. This is a boon to researchers and so called "news agencies". If your working on historical research, use Florida data because it's mostly digitized and is super easy to get and use. You don't even need to ask. However, if you want to grab police arrest records, it's also trivially easy to get.

This sparked a meme called "Florida Man", the link is to Wikipedia. What the article misses is people get arrested anywhere and everywhere for any number of weird things, but Florida is unique in disseminating those records. It isn't that more weird things happen in Florida, it's data access that is weird. Most of these things are unsubstantiated and relatively raw and low quality data. Police reports are notoriously bad representation of facts and usually get distilled down to simplest details before they get used. Yet, the original records exist and are accessible. It's not that police are making things up, it more the fact that a criminal with a dog in a tutu isn't really germain to whatever is going to happen in a court, but the police mention it anyway for a variety of reasons which often don't have anything to do with law enforcement. Maybe they believe the dog is in trouble or the perp needs help. People capture these undistilled police reports and use them as "news articles" for websites. It happens so frequently that the term "Florida Man" is in the headlines because there is very little time to process one situation from another. It seems like it's everyone in Florida is nuts or there is one amazing guy profilifically encountering the police.

I became aware of this while writing a research paper on slavery in New York State. It was actually easier for me to reach out to a 90+ year old Professor in Paris, France for the data than it was to access the information from the New York State census data online, despite language barrier and decades of time since his research. Another time, I tried to research information on the operation of the KKK in Buffalo, NY. It turns out the evidence I needed was stored on paper, in boxes in the History Museum and not in any government archive. They required more information from me that I put on my tax forms just to access the room where I could hunt through thousands of boxes and papers for the data. They told me that they needed the info because the last person to make the request walked off with some of it. Armed with a book on the subject and the museum's paper sign out card, I discovered which one of the author's children had the data and requested the missing information from them. They had it in a box, didn't know what it was and returned it via me. It's now in a box in the basement of the museum until it is "processed" which means moved from the tiny room full of boxes to the giant room full of boxes. That was like 7 years ago and it still sits down there.

Since I had the same professor for both of these classes on New York State history, I had a shirt printed that read "Memewhile in Florida", which he greatly appreciated. He suffered through the New York State research problem as much as I did, if not more.

New York is an example of how you don't want to keep public data, while Florida is an example of how you shouldn't share data, in my opinion.

Ah, OK. I was completely unaware Thanks for the detailed explanation!

[grant hutchison]

Difficult to tell. Certainly there's been huge demand for infrared thermometers, but that's primarily driven by commercial sites that use temperature checks at the door, as a deeply pointless screening test. I've seen no reports of panic buying or shortages of domestic oral thermometers, and it seems like the sort of thing that would have made it into the news if it was happening.
The topic came up in a Zoom call with medical friends recently, and there was still no-one who confessed to owning one, or being interested in owning one. We're obviously not a representative group, though.

Further to this, the UK's National Health Service advice on Covid nowhere mentions using a thermometer to measure your temperature. In fact, they give the idea fairly short shrift

a high temperature – this means you feel hot to touch on your chest or back (you do not need to measure your temperature)

Not particularly helpful for those who live alone, but adults generally do know whether they have a fever or not, and putting a number on it doesn't really contribute to the diagnostic process.

Grant Hutchison

[Trebuchet]

I called four relatives -- two cousins, my brother, and my niece -- yesterday to wish them happy new year.
Brother, whose ex thinks he probably had covid a week or two ago, has gone back to work at a convenience store. In a state where not wearing masks is politically correct.
Male cousin went to an outdoor party with his neighbors, 20 or 30 of them. Sat next to one of them. Didn't mention if he was masked.
Niece and her husband rented an AirBnB with two other couples. Who knows where those people have been.
Female cousin is now seeing her husband while being masked and they even went for a drive with masks on and the windows down. But they're still sleeping in separate rooms since she was diagnosed with Covid.
Conclusion: three out of four of my relatives are not being sensible.

[Jens]

At the time of posting, several readers commented that people in their country didn't keep thermometers in the homes. Is that still the case?

I think that in Japan, most households have thermometers. At least those with children do, because sometimes you have to take kids’ temperatures on days with school trips and stuff. I think we have three or four of them, even before COVID.

[ozduck]

I don't recall anyone I know, including many people with children, ever mentioning that they have a thermometer in their house.

[grant hutchison]

I think that in Japan, most households have thermometers. At least those with children do, because sometimes you have to take kids’ temperatures on days with school trips and stuff.

I'd love to know the rationale for that. Perhaps there's evidence that it reduces disease transmission, but it certainly has the feel of a bit of a box-ticking exercise for liability management.

I don't recall anyone I know, including many people with children, ever mentioning that they have a thermometer in their house.

Sometimes, in some parts of the world, being able to say a suitably high number down the phone seems to act as some sort of pass-code to receive medical attention. But the raw number is perhaps one of the least useful things to know about a fever--there's a host of symptoms and signs that a clinician would want to know about, and would generally assign a lot more weight to.

Grant Hutchison

[Noclevername]

I'd love to know the rationale for that. Perhaps there's evidence that it reduces disease transmission, but it certainly has the feel of a bit of a box-ticking exercise for liability management.

Sometimes, in some parts of the world, being able to say a suitably high number down the phone seems to act as some sort of pass-code to receive medical attention. But the raw number is perhaps one of the least useful things to know about a fever--there's a host of symptoms and signs that a clinician would want to know about, and would generally assign a lot more weight to.

Grant Hutchison

In the state of Indiana, at least, getting through the reception desk to be seen is like checking boxes. In fact, sometimes you literally do fill out a checklist. "Do you have a fever? Are you coughing? Are you experiencing any pain? If so, how much on a scale of one to ten?"

[Jens]

I'd love to know the rationale for that. Perhaps there's evidence that it reduces disease transmission, but it certainly has the feel of a bit of a box-ticking exercise for liability management.

I think it's partly liability management, but also maybe an attempt to prevent a situation where one teacher has to take a kid to the doctor during a trip or something like that.

[publiusr]

The evidence does suggest that "temperature gun at the door" is more Covid theatre...The moral of that story is that an isolated temperature measurement administered as you enter a shop or office does next to nothing.

Grant Hutchison

If anything, it puts the poor temp gun holder at risk. Folks work when they are sick due to low wages, and can always ice their foreheads in cold rags/weather before entry.

This is all about lawsuit avoidance.

I remember Mike Rowe talking about a controversial “safety third” take, talking about how, after a few days of of being lectured, some injuries actually rose.

Some of the temp guns are lousy. One at work reads “low” when I put it on my own forehead.

[Van Rijn]

As a sign of the times, I went to one site and saw Larry King (TV and radio personality) was in the hospital with Covid-19. I went to another site and found that David Weber (science fiction writer) was also in the hospital for the same reason. I don’t have strong feelings, positive or negative, about either of these folks, but I’m very familiar with them, so it still makes an impression. It’s almost like, who hasn’t gotten Covid-19?

As with everyone, I hope they get better.

[Jens]

Some of the temp guns are lousy. One at work reads “low” when I put it on my own forehead.

When I put it on my forehead, it just says “empty.”

[Jens]

Some early analysis of specific gene loci in historical US samples are showing up an S-deletion that matches the "English variant". This is not a full genomic sequence, so we can't say it's the same variant, but it shows that the deletion has been in the USA since October.

There's one thing I wanted to add about this, and I quoted this post not because I'm responding to it but because it's (I think) the latest one in this sub-thread.

People were a bit confused about why they weren't able to find it in the US, and I think Grant gave a very good explanation of the difficulties. What I wanted to add, and I think this is pretty accurate, is that genomic analysis is performed on some of the samples, and you will often find mutations, but the real question is whether those mutations are important or not. It's not as simple as just saying, "oh, there is a mutation on so and so gene, and therefore it is more transmissible. You would need to combine it with epidemiological evidence, for for example, this person infected many people, and then we analyzed that sample, and found a mutation in so and so gene. If you don't have that epidemiological data, you wouldn't necessarily consider the mutation to be important (viruses mutate, and sometimes it is not important). So it may be that the mutation was noted in other places but the significance wasn't understood.

Or at least this is my thinking. Grant (or anyone else), please correct me if I'm wrong about that.

[ozduck]

Sometimes, in some parts of the world, being able to say a suitably high number down the phone seems to act as some sort of pass-code to receive medical attention. But the raw number is perhaps one of the least useful things to know about a fever--there's a host of symptoms and signs that a clinician would want to know about, and would generally assign a lot more weight to.

Grant Hutchison

I was wondering if part of the reason for a thermometer at home was because of the differences in 'medical systems' around the world.

[Jens]

I was wondering if part of the reason for a thermometer at home was because of the differences in 'medical systems' around the world.

I'm not really sure why it would, but am happy to entertain the idea if there is a reason why it might be.

[Noclevername]

I was wondering if part of the reason for a thermometer at home was because of the differences in 'medical systems' around the world.

I suspect so. In the US, there's lots of paperwork entailed with any medical visit or procedure. Knowing if you have a measurable fever or not gives another insurance hoop to jump through data point for providers.

[ozduck]

I suspect so. In the US, there's lots of paperwork entailed with any medical visit or procedure. Knowing if you have a measurable fever or not gives another insurance hoop to jump through data point for providers.

That was the sort of thing I was thinking of - based at least partly on your earlier post on this subject. Plus, based on my admittedly very imperfect understanding of other nations procedures, that the costs involved may make people in some countries want to be more convinced that there is a problem before choosing to visit a doctor.

[Noclevername]

That was the sort of thing I was thinking of - based at least partly on your earlier post on this subject. Plus, based on my admittedly very imperfect understanding of other nations procedures, that the costs involved may make people in some countries want to be more convinced that there is a problem before choosing to visit a doctor.

More like insurance companies want to be convinced your illness is serious enough to be worth paying for.

If I get into a rant about the US healthcare system I'll probably say things that get me banned for life, so I'll bow out of this subject now.