Page 17 of 24 FirstFirst ... 71516171819 ... LastLast
Results 481 to 510 of 709

Thread: The COVID-19 Discussion Thread (OTB)

  1. #481
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    14,477
    Quote Originally Posted by pzkpfw View Post
    Oh darn.

    We've had some community transmission occur. Auckland (NZ largest city) on "level 3" lockdown, rest of the country at "level 2". They say for just 3 days, but everybody is taking that with a pinch of salt.

    My phone made the "nuclear war" or "tsunami alert" sounds last night at around 10 pm so the Govt could tell me.

    Then at 1 am I was woken by the text-alert system from the place I'm working at. Then another 9. Then another 10 at 1:15 am. I turned off my phone.
    Sorry to hear that, both about the cases and particularly the alarms. We have the same kinds of problems. We get warnings on our smartphones when there is an imminent earthquake (you may get those too), and sometimes a bunch of smartphones start buzzing and everyone waits in anticipation, but then nothing happens.
    As above, so below

  2. #482
    Join Date
    Feb 2003
    Location
    Depew, NY
    Posts
    12,270
    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    This a pretty common approach to getting various elite sports going again while minimizing the risk of transmission within the competitor "bubble". The idea is to get as prompt warning as possible if someone within that bubble becomes infective.
    I can't really see what failure mode you're worried about, or if you feel there's any better way to do it.

    Grant Hutchison
    I don't think the tests themselves would fail any more than they normally do, my thought is there are too many moving parts. As you say, why aren't these players working in a bubble? It seems like the NFL's plan is to overload themselves with too much information without using an "easier" solution of separation between players and everyone else with a bubble. A test can't really take the place of reasonable separation. (Unless the Bubble is the actually the plan and I don't know that fact.)

    This actually affects me personally, on a couple of levels. The school districts in my state had to submit a plan for reopening for in person education for approval. The day after the deadline, we were told there was a requirement for testing staff and students. Even though the districts or schools didn't have that information in their submitted plans, we were give the go ahead to reopen anyway. We don't even know who and when people should be tested. It seems like it's a prophylactic test. (I hope I used that word correctly.) In the case of my children's school, they decided not to reopen for in person study despite having their plan approved. My employer hasn't announced a decision yet, but we have a big meeting Friday.

    It seems like the requirement's target audience was misaligned. We have the health department to do contact tracing and testing, but since this requirement was directed at schools, it seems like schools have requirement to do contact tracing and testing themselves and provide that information to the health department. That doesn't make sense and there are no answers forthcoming. It would be more reasonable for schools to report cases to the health department, who will then do testing and contact tracing. It is impossible to determine if this guideline simply spelled out all of the processes or added a new process and made the schools responsible for new things. It seems like it's poorly worded or targeting a larger audience without laying out stakeholders. It is confusing.
    Solfe

  3. #483
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    The Great NorthWet
    Posts
    16,079
    Two major US college athletic conferences have cancelled all fall sports, explaining that while professional teams may be able to have a bubble, they could not. Based on what I've seen in a couple of games, Major League Baseball isn't so good at it either.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  4. #484
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    19,769
    Quote Originally Posted by Solfe View Post
    I don't think the tests themselves would fail any more than they normally do, my thought is there are too many moving parts. As you say, why aren't these players working in a bubble? It seems like the NFL's plan is to overload themselves with too much information without using an "easier" solution of separation between players and everyone else with a bubble. A test can't really take the place of reasonable separation. (Unless the Bubble is the actually the plan and I don't know that fact.)
    My understanding was that the NFL and/or individual teams are trying out various bubble concepts, while accepting that bubbling the entire league for the entire season is unworkable. The leakier and more fragmentary your bubbles, the more daily testing makes sense.
    I actually have zero interest in football of any flavour (indeed, in any kind of competitive sport), but I was recently following a discussion about the mechanics of trying to get sport working again. The upshot was that, whatever you do, you've got to keep testing.

    Grant Hutchison

  5. #485
    Join Date
    Feb 2003
    Location
    Depew, NY
    Posts
    12,270
    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    My understanding was that the NFL and/or individual teams are trying out various bubble concepts, while accepting that bubbling the entire league for the entire season is unworkable. The leakier and more fragmentary your bubbles, the more daily testing makes sense.
    I actually have zero interest in football of any flavour (indeed, in any kind of competitive sport), but I was recently following a discussion about the mechanics of trying to get sport working again. The upshot was that, whatever you do, you've got to keep testing.

    Grant Hutchison
    I did not know that. Thank you.
    Solfe

  6. #486
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    The Valley of the Sun
    Posts
    9,873
    Last night I had my first remembered dream in which people were wearing masks. Not much of a plot. I was taking a shortcut to somewhere through the backyards of some old, abandoned houses when I came to a yard with some teenagers wearing masks in it. One of them said that I shouldn't be there and they escorted me out to the front street. I wasn't wearing a mask in the dream.

  7. #487
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Olympia, WA
    Posts
    31,489
    I've had to promise Simon that we'll have a party the first we're able to, because it's all getting to him.
    _____________________________________________
    Gillian

    "Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

    "You can't erase icing."

    "I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

  8. #488
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    NEOTP Atlanta, GA
    Posts
    3,290
    Both on-topic but also in the "Amuses me" category, I just noticed that my wife added the #StayHome hashtag to her Facebook profile photo.

  9. #489
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    The Great NorthWet
    Posts
    16,079
    I'm ready to go to a restaurant. My wife is not, which I very much understand given her underlying conditions. We've been eating fine; I've been cooking some really good burgers. But I'd still like just once for someone else to cook a mediocre one and bring it to me!
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  10. #490
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    The beautiful north coast (Ohio)
    Posts
    50,074
    Quote Originally Posted by Gillianren View Post
    I've had to promise Simon that we'll have a party the first we're able to, because it's all getting to him.
    I'm with Simon. We usually have a big backyard party every summer but we have to skip it this year.
    At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

    All moderation in purple - The rules

  11. #491
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    The beautiful north coast (Ohio)
    Posts
    50,074
    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    I'm ready to go to a restaurant. My wife is not, which I very much understand given her underlying conditions. We've been eating fine; I've been cooking some really good burgers. But I'd still like just once for someone else to cook a mediocre one and bring it to me!
    We've been doing a takeout dinner once a week and maybe a couple of lunches a week, just to mix it up and get a break.
    At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

    All moderation in purple - The rules

  12. #492
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    No longer near Grover's Mill
    Posts
    5,354
    Saturday breakfast with Mrs Extravoice at a local diner was tradition until the pandemic. Yesterday, we ordered take-out. It required careful transition from containers to plates and plenty of hand washing, but we enjoyed it.

    The diner actually allows limited indoor seating, but we still consider it too risky.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    I may have many faults, but being wrong ain't one of them. - Jimmy Hoffa

  13. #493
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Olympia, WA
    Posts
    31,489
    Quote Originally Posted by Swift View Post
    I'm with Simon. We usually have a big backyard party every summer but we have to skip it this year.
    I'd been saying for years that I wanted to start doing a Halloween open house, when we had room for it, and invite people to come spend time watching movies and hanging out at the house all day. I doubt it's going to happen this year; we might feel safe enough in our part of the state to invite some specific friends, but not everyone. And a lot of my friends start online classes as teachers or parents for the school year today, which is going to be painful. We'd been promising Irene up until March that she'd start school this year, and she's still pretty firm that it's going to happen despite my decision that there's no such thing as safe and effective preschool right now.
    _____________________________________________
    Gillian

    "Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

    "You can't erase icing."

    "I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

  14. #494
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    4,880

    Pain

    Quote Originally Posted by Gillianren View Post

    (edit)

    We'd been promising Irene up until March that she'd start school this year, and she's still pretty firm that it's going to happen despite my decision that there's no such thing as safe and effective preschool right now.
    You are correct. As of this post I have 143 consecutive days of COVID-19 reports from the State of Delaware, and it is discouraging. Delaware is a small state, only 3 counties, less than but almost one million people, so the analyses are relatively easy. I can predict tomorrow's number of new cases within 0.5 %, which sounds wonderful. It isn't. The new case rate is so steady it is a linear regression, at about 70 new cases per day. The link for the Delaware statistics is here:

    https://myhealthycommunity.dhss.dela...ocations/state

    Delaware is at Level 2, and it ain't getting any better. Schools are allowed to re-open at Level 2, which I think will be a disaster. Gatherings of any sort produce outbreaks. Covid-19 is a wickedly infectious disease and will not go away until there is an effective vaccine.

    That's the data, the analysis, and the predictions. I hope I am wrong.
    Last edited by John Mendenhall; 2020-Aug-25 at 01:35 AM. Reason: typo
    I'm not a hardnosed mainstreamer; I just like the observations, theories, predictions, and results to match.

    "Mainstream isn’t a faith system. It is a verified body of work that must be taken into account if you wish to add to that body of work, or if you want to change the conclusions of that body of work." - korjik

  15. #495
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    4,880

    Where's The Beef?

    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    I'm ready to go to a restaurant. My wife is not, which I very much understand given her underlying conditions. We've been eating fine; I've been cooking some really good burgers. But I'd still like just once for someone else to cook a mediocre one and bring it to me!
    Your local fast food burger joint will be glad to do just that. The burger can usually be found hiding under the pickle.

  16. #496
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    The Valley of the Sun
    Posts
    9,873
    I had a Big Mac last week, but only because someone at work brought it to me. I'm not going to restaurants.

    On the bright side, no one has hung any advertising on my doorknob for months.

  17. #497
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    The Great NorthWet
    Posts
    16,079
    Quote Originally Posted by John Mendenhall View Post
    Your local fast food burger joint will be glad to do just that. The burger can usually be found hiding under the pickle.
    I've done that a couple of times. But it's just not the same.

    I suppose it's saving us money anyhow.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  18. #498
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    19,769
    Quote Originally Posted by John Mendenhall View Post
    You are correct. As of this post I have 143 consecutive days of COVID-19 reports from the State of Delaware, and it is discouraging. Delaware is a small state, only 3 counties, less than but almost one million people, so the analyses are relatively easy. I can predict tomorrow's number of new cases within 0.5 %, which sounds wonderful. It isn't. The new case rate is so steady it is a linear regression, at about 70 new cases per day. The link for the Delaware statistics is here:

    https://myhealthycommunity.dhss.dela...ocations/state

    Delaware is at Level 2, and it ain't getting any better. Schools are allowed to re-open at Level 2, which I think will be a disaster. Gatherings of any sort produce outbreaks. Covid-19 is a wickedly infectious disease and will not go away until there is an effective vaccine.

    That's the data, the analysis, and the predictions. I hope I am wrong.
    Well, lots of experience from countries that have run schools throughout the pandemic, or which opened up months ago, suggests that getting the children together, particularly small children, isn't a huge increased risk for the children or the adults around them. But we do need to be cautious about new assemblies of adults as a result of schools reopening--teachers who can't or don't physically distance from each other, groups of parents at school gates ditto, and parents returning to work leading to increased density on public transport and in workplaces.
    Contrast the annual flu season, when school children are one of the main drivers of transmission. And yet we don't close schools every winter, despite the fact that we could probably avoid a lot of deaths by doing so.
    We're really, really lucky that Covid-19 doesn't spread through kids the way seasonal flu does.

    So the risk assessment is all about the complicated relationship between local incidence, test positivity rate, the capacity of test-and-trace and local healthcare, and what sort of mitigations are in place in schools. The Delaware Covid page is a masterpiece of what David Spiegelhalter calls "numbers theatre", but it doesn't really explore the sort of modelling required to make these assessments.
    There's also a trade-off available--you can, if necessary, compensate for increased transmission related to schools opening by closing other areas of high transmission risk. Does your society want to trade pubs, meat-packing plants and/or choirs for children's education?

    Grant Hutchison
    Last edited by grant hutchison; 2020-Aug-25 at 01:59 PM.

  19. #499
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Olympia, WA
    Posts
    31,489
    I don't want pubs or choirs right now, either.
    _____________________________________________
    Gillian

    "Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

    "You can't erase icing."

    "I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

  20. #500
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    No longer near Grover's Mill
    Posts
    5,354
    I had my (belated) annual physical exam and eye doctor appointments yesterday. It was interesting to see the arrangements they made to reduce exposure to “the rona”.

    Limited access and entrance screening at both locations, but more plexiglass and face shields at the physician’s office. Lots of surface sanitizing at the eye doctor’s.

    Next week is my dental exam. I’m not looking forward to that visit. Allegedly, spinning tools are discouraged, meaning more scraping during cleaning.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    I may have many faults, but being wrong ain't one of them. - Jimmy Hoffa

  21. #501
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    NEOTP Atlanta, GA
    Posts
    3,290
    Our plans for summer travel next June in Germany seem to be in peril. If I decode the algebra correctly, the EU currently restricts travel from countries where the daily new case count is 50 or less per 100,000 population and for some undermined period of time (week or two week average?) For the US that would seem to be 23,570 new cases a day. But the US is currently at a weekly average of 42,393 daily new cases. The US new case rate is decreasing but it may not be fast enough.

  22. #502
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    19,769
    The usual metric for ECDC reports is the 14-day case notification rate per 100,000. So the threshold of 50 would correspond to just 12,000 daily cases in the USA, I'm afraid. In other words, you need about a quarter of your current notification rate.

    ETA: Melt your brain with the ECDC's Weekly Covid-19 country overview.

    Grant Hutchison
    Last edited by grant hutchison; 2020-Aug-27 at 11:11 PM.

  23. #503
    Join Date
    Feb 2003
    Location
    Depew, NY
    Posts
    12,270
    My wife and I decided to nix our trip to the Bahamas in 2021. Too much going on, too many restrictions at this moment to plan a trip without driving ourselves nuts. We decided to replace it with a trip to New Orleans. In country is better than out of country.

    Wham! Hurricane. I'm sure that everything will be fine in a couple of months plus I have family in New Orleans, so it's not like we'd miss out on much of anything to hurricane damage. Were looking at a random Motel 6 style of vacation, not an all inclusive B&B or anything that is subject to hurricane damage. The news ain't great, but the family is fine.

    However with all of this covid stuff happening along side all of the stuff that normally happens, it feels like we're using a ouija board to call doom down on other people. Maybe we can just stop planning ahead and save some sanity.
    Solfe

  24. #504
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    No longer near Grover's Mill
    Posts
    5,354
    I’m scheduled for a relatively minor out-patient medical procedure in a few weeks. They are sending me for a COVID test three days prior.
    Just add that to the “new normal” list.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    I may have many faults, but being wrong ain't one of them. - Jimmy Hoffa

  25. #505
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    The Valley of the Sun
    Posts
    9,873
    I don't suppose the vaccine will be available in time to stop the festive Christmas masks.

  26. #506
    Join Date
    Mar 2015
    Location
    Australia
    Posts
    1,402
    The outbreak in the State of Victoria seems to be finally coming under control after the introduction of severe restrictions in that state - compulsory use of masks, curfews, closing of non-essential business etc. Yesterday was the first day since July 5 that the number of new cases was under 100 and the curve has been on a definite downward trend for the last few weeks. There were a couple of days when over 700 new cases were recorded. Unfortunately the virus became entrenched in a number of nursing homes for the elderly and this contributed markedly to the death toll.

    As a indication of how much this outbreak in one state has contributed to the infections and death toll in Australia - Victoria with a population of around 5.7 Million has a little over 22% of the total Australian population of around 25.5 Million. The number of confirmed cases to date in Australia is 25,374 and Victoria has had 18,921 so just under 75% of all cases. The national death toll is currently 602 with Victoria recording 515 so a little over 85% of all deaths have occurred there.

  27. #507
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Posts
    19,333
    California’s numbers are dropping, if not as quickly as I’d like, and we’re starting to try a second round of opening up more, but from the sound of it, with more care, slower, on a county by county basis, with little doubt it will be reversed if things don’t go well.

    "The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." — Abraham Lincoln

    I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

    The Leif Ericson Cruiser

  28. 2020-Aug-29, 07:26 PM
    Reason
    Accidental post

  29. #508
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Posts
    19,333
    Out of morbid curiosity, could anyone point me to a video or audio stream of Emily Miller saying “convalescent plasma”? Reportedly, she was fired from her position as FDA spokesperson after eleven days because of profound lack of knowledge regarding medical and scientific issues, so she couldn’t do her job properly and made serious mistakes. I get the impression of a lot of hand holding, with others trying to do her work for her. One comment was that she couldn’t even pronounce “convalescent plasma.” Unfortunately I didn’t catch her on news during her brief time at the job, and when I do a web search, everything seems focused on her ouster. I’m curious how poorly she said those words and if accent might be an issue. They strike me as words most people would have encountered at some point even if just on TV.

    "The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." — Abraham Lincoln

    I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

    The Leif Ericson Cruiser

  30. #509
    Join Date
    Aug 2020
    Posts
    9
    It's a pity, but in our Ukraine many people still think that Covid is a myth.

  31. #510
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    No longer near Grover's Mill
    Posts
    5,354
    I’ve been attending to several medically-related items that I had put off earlier in the pandemic.

    I figured that late summer would be the best time to handle them. Offices would have had time to develop visitor protocols, and I’d beat any second wave surge (if COVID-19 behaved like the 1918 flu).

    Unfortunately, my dentist discovered a big crack in one tooth that will require two more visits to repair. Of all the doctor’s offices, this is the one I don’t want to spend extra time in. The thought of his creating an aerosol while drilling a non-symptomatic patient’s teeth is unsettling.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    I may have many faults, but being wrong ain't one of them. - Jimmy Hoffa

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •