Order of Kilopi
My niece the teacher has been going in and doing her remote teaching from her empty classroom, just to feel a little more normal.Originally Posted by Solfe
She and her husband are coming up Saturday for early Thanksgiving dinner. They've been isolating but it still worries me.
Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.
Order of Kilopi
So, my almost-80-year-old mother tested positive today (well, the test was conducted yesterday, she got the results today).
The good news is that it was one of the milder cases and, since she hasn't had a fever in the last couple of days and initial symptom onset was more than two weeks ago, she doesn't even need to self-quarantine. Life as usual (such as it is).
Sometimes you win, sometimes you learn
Moderator
I hope she gets better soon.
Bad Post-Doc
Yeah, the teachers here are doing that. Hence yesterday's power outage, though I wouldn't be surprised if a few of the teachers lost power at home, too. It was a bit breezy yesterday.
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Gillian
"Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"
"You can't erase icing."
"I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"
Order of Kilopi
A friend sent me this link to an event risk calculator developed at Georgia Tech, et al. It seems a bit coarse, and I'm not sure what value it has vs. exercising common sense, but it's amusing to play with:
https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.ed...eid=1a9d751f9e
The COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool is a collaborative project led by Prof. Joshua Weitz and Prof. Clio Andris at the Georgia Institute of Technology, along with researchers at the Applied Bioinformatics Laboratory and Stanford University, and powered by RStudio. Description of the method and analyses available at Nature Human Behaviour.
Order of Kilopi
My employer’s daily COVID report (positive and likely cases at our facility) has jumped to about 3x as many cases as it was just a few weeks ago.
I can work from home for now, but that won’t last forever.
I may have many faults, but being wrong ain't one of them. - Jimmy Hoffa
Order of Kilopi
One of the many events that are going to been virtually instead of in real space is the Halifax security forum. Hope nobody finds the zoom code and joins in.
From the wilderness into the cosmos.
You can not be afraid of the wind, Enterprise: Broken Bow.
https://davidsuniverse.wordpress.com/
Established Member
These stories just keep happening. At least 32 people who attended a wedding in Ohio last month have reportedly contracted the coronavirus, including the bride and groom and two of the couple’s grandparents who had to visit the emergency room for severe symptoms. Sadly, despite the fact that their grandparents were the only ones wearing masks the whole time, they still got sick
At this point I'm thinking who would actually want to have a wedding during a pandemic? Go to the justice of the peace, get married and have your formal wedding after a vaccine has had time to work.
Order of Kilopi
Well we got a notice in the mail for people who have to work on one side of the US/Canada border and work on the other, basically go directly to work and back home and wear your mask.
I am waiting for the "I survived 2020 and just got this T-shirt."
From the wilderness into the cosmos.
You can not be afraid of the wind, Enterprise: Broken Bow.
https://davidsuniverse.wordpress.com/
Moderator
Bad Post-Doc
Yesterday, my son's class met with their principal about how to improve virtual learning. Universally, the kids wanted to go back to school--as did the teacher and principal--but as one of the kids said, one of the advantages to distance learning is that no one can cough on you.
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Gillian
"Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"
"You can't erase icing."
"I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"
Order of Kilopi
Another new case record for the USA yesterday, along with the most deaths since early May. The latter is only going to get worse with all the new cases in the past week. And some people are still in denial.
Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.
Order of Kilopi
Not hugely surprising, unfortunately. The idea that face coverings protect the wearer seems to have rather taken root beyond the evidence, which is based on laboratory studies of the mask materials (so neglecting the effect of gaps around the mask) and epidemiology in people who choose to wear face coverings (and who therefore probably have a number of other behavioural differences from those who don't). There's a reason health-care professionals wear N95 masks that have been individually fitted and leak-tested.
Coincidentally, the Danes have just published a large real-world randomized study of mask use. At a time when public mask wearing was not recommended, they randomized people to wear or not wear surgical masks in public spaces. There was no significant difference in Covid rates between the two groups, in a study powered to detect a fifty-percent reduction due to masks. There are various limitations to the study, but it does suggest that wearing a mask when those around you are not wearing masks does relatively little to reduce your risk.
The best way to protect your grandparents is still, sadly, to never be in the same room with them.
Grant Hutchison
Established Member
Here's a site where you just type in your zip code (US) and it gives you an "Illness Risk" number for that area.
https://healthweather.us/myrisk
Order of Kilopi
I've heard on some news program in Phoenix that wearing a mask is now known to protect the wearer. Someone else was watching it so I don't know which broadcaster. I figure that it's propaganda to get people to wear masks, although it might be true. It didn't say how effective it was.
Moderator
I've heard the same report on several news outlets. I believe it comes from the CDC (LINK), updated on 10 Nov.
Masks are primarily intended to reduce the emission of virus-laden droplets (“source control”), which is especially relevant for asymptomatic or presymptomatic infected wearers who feel well and may be unaware of their infectiousness to others, and who are estimated to account for more than 50% of transmissions.1,2 Masks also help reduce inhalation of these droplets by the wearer (“filtration for personal protection”). The community benefit of masking for SARS-CoV-2 control is due to the combination of these effects; individual prevention benefit increases with increasing numbers of people using masks consistently and correctly.
Order of Kilopi
The CDC recently updated its information on community use of cloth masks to include "filtration for personal protection" (ie, wearer protection)--so that's had some publicity. The actual text is hedged around with caveats, but of course these get dropped out by media reports. There's a useful summary of the evidence on the CDC page in my link, which predates the publication of the Danish randomized trial I referenced earlier.
The danger is that people hear "protects wearer", and assume that they're safe behind a mask, irrespective of their surrounding circumstances. In public health terms, a tiny reduction in transmission is worth getting, but individuals should rely primarily on things that give them big risk reductions: people, space, time, place.
ETA: overlapped with Swift.
Grant Hutchison
Last edited by grant hutchison; 2020-Nov-19 at 06:23 PM.
Order of Kilopi
I can understand that concern, but I really don't see it happening, at least where I am. When people wear masks they tend to keep distance, etc., almost as a kind of signal that "I am in crisis mode." But sometimes when they take their masks off, like in restaurants, they become more relaxed about talking to other people, etc. There is in fact a bar in my neighborhood that I sometimes go to, and even now, the bartenders don't wear masks and chat with the customers. I've been avoiding it since the number of cases started to tick up again.
As above, so below
Order of Kilopi
It's certainly happening where I am. People are very bad at understanding relative risk, and "mask of invulnerability" behaviour is rife in my part of the world.
Grant Hutchison
Order of Kilopi
This Saturday they are putting a curfew of sorts in place for most counties in California from 10PM to 5AM. You can still drive or otherwise travel to and use “essential services” during this time: grocery stores, drug stores, drive though or take out food, buy gas, go to a hospital, etc. I’m curious what it will really limit. Since the pandemic a lot of places have cut their hours so even most “essential” businesses close by 10pm (for a while a lot of them were closing at 9 or even earlier). I’m not sure what non-essential businesses where people gather would still be open under current conditions. Maybe it will discourage late parties at home? But if someone is fool enough to have a large gathering at home under these conditions, does a curfew actually matter?
There is also the issue that law enforcement in some jurisdictions have said they aren’t going to enforce it or will make it a low priority, sometimes citing resources.
I’ll be curious to see if we get a better idea of the point of this. Maybe psychological? Meant to to suggest it’s more serious now? In any case, it sounds like it will have no effect on me.
"The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." — Abraham Lincoln
I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?
The Leif Ericson Cruiser
Order of Kilopi
Mostly I’ve seen issues in stores depending on how well they indicate you’re supposed to keep your distance: one store with a number of signs and indicators on the floor, regular instructions said on the PA and room behind the checkouts where it is very clear where you are supposed to go versus another somewhat more crowded store with much less attention to detail. In the first I never have trouble with people crowding me. In the second I twice I had people in checkout walk right behind me within a couple feet. I stopped going to the second.
"The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." — Abraham Lincoln
I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?
The Leif Ericson Cruiser
Order of Kilopi
The issue here is how people weight their risk reduction strategies. It seems from Selenite's story that the grandparents were sufficiently concerned about their Covid risk to wear masks (while others didn't), but not sufficiently concerned to avoid an indoor assembly of probably 50 or more people lasting probably several hours. That's completely backwards, in terms of risk reduction, but in the context of current public health messaging in the USA and Europe I can see why it's happening.
Grant Hutchison
Established Member
As a follow-up to this story, the bride at this Ohio wedding said she realized while walking down the aisle the risk of the coronavirus spreading at her wedding.
The couple believe the dance floor was probably the biggest source of the virus's spread."My big moment honestly was right when the ceremony started and the doors opened and both my parents walked me down the aisle," she told WLWT. "The first thing I see is I see everyone's face. And that's when I realized, wow, nobody's wearing a mask."
By then, it was too late. "I'm walking down the aisle. We can't do anything now," she said.
Frankly, I think the turning point took place when nobody took note that eighty-odd people were showing up at this event without masks."That’s the turning point. After dinner, after cake," Anthony said, noting that before then all guests were seated at their table and socially distanced.
"Getting into each other's face, and there are no masks," added Mikayla.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...-superspreader
Order of Kilopi
The region I am from got noticed by the New York Times because of the low covid numbers here.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/18/o...ia-canada.html
I would like to point New Brunswick in which the author didn't mention actually has fewer cases then Nova Scotia, we are to ones with the border with the US and Quebec.
From the wilderness into the cosmos.
You can not be afraid of the wind, Enterprise: Broken Bow.
https://davidsuniverse.wordpress.com/
Mostly HarmlessI am slightly annoyed at the whole shutdown process in my area. For the life of me, I don't understand the concept of forcing businesses to close at a particular time, especially formerly 24 hour stores, as a risk mitigation tool. If the grocery store was open 24 hours to service x people per hour, reducing the number of hours merely increases the number of people in the store at any given moment that they are in operation. The general public didn't get smaller because the store's hours were reduced. (On the other hand, this is perfectly reasonable for big box stores. The hordes in there are insane no matter what policies they have in place. People milling about shopping for end of season flip flops and shorts deals.)
I have all of this down to a science, now. The grocery store is 3 blocks away. I walk the dog and check the parking lot at 7 am. It's always packed. By the 9:30 walk, the store is largely empty because of the earlier rush. I drive over, load up for at least a week at a time and use the self check out. Thankfully, they have that area set up nicely. Each cash out station is about 8 feet away from the next one and there is a line with markers leading up to the self check-out entrance. They hold people back while they clean the area. The only bottleneck is exiting the store.
I am even more baffled by my college's policy on having me quarantine before taking classes in the spring. I don't live on campus, so they would like to me to isolate at home. I am to set up a isolation area in my house with my own bed, bathroom and sink, cleaning supplies, food delivery and have no contact with anyone else in the home. I have 3 kids, a wife, a dog and we live in a 900 square foot house. And, of course, I work. We obviously have one and only one bathroom. When I asked what alternative there was I referred to the county health department. They said there were no exceptions for this and I should consider getting a dorm room or staying at hotel. They referred me back to my college.
Another phone call to the school confirmed that I couldn't just rent a dorm room for a week and the hotel was a better option. I don't know why they referred me elsewhere when they already had an answer. When I said I was going to stop attending school for at least a semester, they got all bent out of shape. Told me all about all the hardships of declining enrollment and reduced revenue. I hit mute before I chuckled. They sounded like they were reading off script. It was sad really because I like my college but they nearly told me revenue was preferable to safety.
The decision not to go back this coming semester was pretty easy. I'm supposed to take classes which involve being mentored in a classroom at a public school. They are all closed and working remotely for the foreseeable future. Watching a Zoom meeting is a rather low educational experience. I know, I teach enough lessons by Zoom myself. It's better than nothing, but not by much.
Solfe
Order of Kilopi
I would imagine isolating you is to prevent you from getting the virus from the outside of the school and bringing in to students that are staying at the school.
Here the local grocery store, we have only one dedicated grocery store for a town of 4,500 in town and over 10,000 outside of town. Before the lockdown people went over the river as we call it to do grocery shopping. But back to my point, the store actually open an hour early or for while did to allow older people to get before everyone else.
From the wilderness into the cosmos.
You can not be afraid of the wind, Enterprise: Broken Bow.
https://davidsuniverse.wordpress.com/
Mostly HarmlessI understand the theory behind it, but they didn't think it through. I isolated myself from all activities I plan on engaging during the course of the semester, before the semester and not a moment longer? I will be going outside, in contact with people, going to work, and the college campus and other places. I will be visiting random public schools as a part of my course work. They have no effective bubble around the college, they need a testing protocol to know who to isolate not a broad isolation protocol and testing later, if necessary.
The school where I work is under a protocol where we test 20% of all staff and students weekly. We can't do it so we closed and are working remotely. Same for my children's school, however there is one program still open. My son has elected to be tested as soon as possible. Unfortunately, the protocol came down with such a tight time constraint that it currently is not possible until December. Due to the difficulties of setting up testing in early December and going on Christmas break a couple of weeks later, it's not practical to reopen before mid-January. My daughter is non-plussed by the idea of testing and won't attend in person for the remainder of the year.
I still think it's funny that my daughter has to wear a mask and close her bedroom door when attending Chorus class. Like she never sings at other times. I don't know, this might not be a school policy, but a teacher's policy. Whatever works, she's learning to sing.
As an educator, I have this odd sense that my teaching remotely is not effective, BUT when I see what my children and other people's children are accomplishing online, I couldn't be happier. Maybe, I have a little jealousy or envy going on? Or perhaps it's the demographics? Special Ed vs. General Education? I don't know. From a parental perspective, I am sort of the opinion that General Education is actually very effective, and improving all the time, despite terrible challenges. It could be just me.
Solfe
Order of Kilopi
I'd say assembling eighty-odd people in celebratory mood under one roof for several hours was where it went off the rails, masks or no masks. As you say, why do that, under the present circumstances?
Grant Hutchison
Order of Kilopi
The US is setting new-case records practically every day. Including in my small county, with some 19 cases yesterday bringing the month to 51. We'd been having one or two a month. And then when I went to the store some moron in the parking lot was loudly denouncing it as all fake and that masks were invented by Commies.
Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.
Bad Post-Doc
I know my son and his classmates are pretty well unanimous in wishing they could be in school in person. I think he'd be learning more in school, because perversely I think it would be easier for him to get more specialized education. The work involved in letting the more advanced kids do work to their level is actually more complicated in a distance learning scenario, because you can't just put them in one corner of the room to do the difficult stuff while the other kids are learning the stuff my son and a few others clearly already know.
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Gillian
"Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"
"You can't erase icing."
"I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"
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