The COVID-19 Discussion Thread (OTB)

[Gillianren]

In other news, it seems that Covid lockdowns have helped Hornby (a British company famous for model trains, which now owns the Scalextric motor racing system, Airfix model kits and Humbrol model paints) turn themselves a profit for the first time in a decade. Airfix in particular almost went out of business, but (IIRC) was turned around when Hornby put in new management that actually understood the market. I watched a documentary a year or two ago, in which an incoming manager was pretty much reduced to tears when he discovered how many old kit moulds the previous management had scrapped.

From what I can tell, crafting is getting a similar boost. I have certain supply requirements where I have to go into the store (embroidery floss, for starters), and certain basics are fairly picked over most of the time. Though of course, all my friends who sew have also been actually using all that fabric we've bought "for something."

[Solfe]

From what I can tell, crafting is getting a similar boost. I have certain supply requirements where I have to go into the store (embroidery floss, for starters), and certain basics are fairly picked over most of the time. Though of course, all my friends who sew have also been actually using all that fabric we've bought "for something."

Back in April, I ran out of paper for drawing. I tried digital art but that was a bust. I ended up harvesting brown paper bags for ink work. The black on brown looks like sepia from a distance. It was cool.

When I realized Walmart was still open at the start of May, I bought a ton of paper, a paper cutter and a cheap but nice leather bound sketchpad. When I got home, my daughter complained that she was out of paper. I let her pick through everything I bought. I lost the sketchpad in the deal, but she was happy.

[The Backroad Astronomer]

Around here at least lumber was getting scarce because everyone was doing home improvements like building decks.

[Spacedude]

Yesterday's US covid death count approached the 3,000 number (for one day), while Japan's total covid death count since last Feb is 2,240. We have turned the corner and screamed past everyone else.

[Trebuchet]

Don't forget the 235,000 new cases yesterday. We should be hitting 300,000 deaths in about a week. That's around 0.1% of the total population. It's a very bad situation. At least we'll have a couple of seemingly better days now due to the reduced weekend reporting.

[Swift]

Yesterday's US covid death count approached the 3,000 number (for one day), while Japan's total covid death count since last Feb is 2,240. We have turned the corner and screamed past everyone else.

One analogy I heard is that the US is approaching a "9/11" every day.

[The Backroad Astronomer]

There is not only the new cases but there might be deaths coming from people who have long gotten over the initial infection. There are Long-haulers as they call themselves who are still having problems months afterwards and deaths from these secondary issues.

[grant hutchison]

There is not only the new cases but there might be deaths coming from people who have long gotten over the initial infection. There are Long-haulers as they call themselves who are still having problems months afterwards and deaths from these secondary issues.

Can you give an example of a death caused by "long Covid"? It's a miserable condition, but it seems to fall largely into the established spectrum of Post-Viral Fatigue Syndrome, which is not fatal (but occasionally makes you wish it were).

Grant Hutchison

[The Backroad Astronomer]

Can you give an example of a death caused by "long Covid"? It's a miserable condition, but it seems to fall largely into the established spectrum of Post-Viral Fatigue Syndrome, which is not fatal (but occasionally makes you wish it were).

Grant Hutchison

I aw on 60 minutes report there was Doctor who was studying post Covid conditions, she actually had covid and by the time it aired she died of Heart attack. I am not a 100% certain but I think they said it was linked to Covid.

[grant hutchison]

I aw on 60 minutes report there was Doctor who was studying post Covid conditions, she actually had covid and by the time it aired she died of Heart attack. I am not a 100% certain but I think they said it was linked to Covid.

Sounds like you're thinking of Mary Fowkes, the pathologist in New York who did some of the early post-mortem studies of Covid-19 victims (which provided information that hugely changed critical care management). I can find no mention in her obituaries that she did contract Covid, and the news item in my link says:

Fowkes died on Nov. 15 at her home of an acute heart attack, unrelated to Covid-19, according to her obituary.

ETA: Here is a transcript of the 60 Minutes episode. Although it's about long Covid, it doesn't seem to suggest that Fowkes had long Covid, or relate her death to the disease.

Grant Hutchison

[Spacedude]

One analogy I heard is that the US is approaching a "9/11" every day.

Another one compares it to ~10 loaded 737s crashing daily. We've passed every other country at warp speed.

[The Backroad Astronomer]

Sounds like you're thinking of Mary Fowkes, the pathologist in New York who did some of the early post-mortem studies of Covid-19 victims (which provided information that hugely changed critical care management). I can find no mention in her obituaries that she did contract Covid, and the news item in my link says:ETA: Here is a transcript of the 60 Minutes episode. Although it's about long Covid, it doesn't seem to suggest that Fowkes had long Covid, or relate her death to the disease.

Grant Hutchison

My bad, sorry. Must of confused Dr. Dayna McCarthy who is still alive but said she had a mild cause of Covid in March.

[grant hutchison]

My bad, sorry. Must of confused Dr. Dayna McCarthy who is still alive but said she had a mild cause of Covid in March.

Yes, she's the one who also has long Covid.

Grant Hutchison

[Selenite]

One analogy I heard is that the US is approaching a "9/11" every day.

Should we (God forbid) push past the 3,650 mark in one day, I suppose the Civil War Battle of Antietam will become the old measuring stick for the most Americans who perished on a single day.

I tried looking up the deadliest single day for the 1918 Spanish influenza, but everything seems to be broken down by month for that disaster.

[Jens]

Another one compares it to ~10 loaded 737s crashing daily. We've passed every other country at warp speed.

I know this isn't much comfort, but there are actually a number of other countries that have had more deaths from COVID-19, if you look by capita. They are all much smaller than the US, so the absolute figures don't stand out as much. But Belgium has had 1,400 deaths per million population, compared to about 850 in the US.

[publiusr]

I've heard similar stories about model trains in the US; I know I've spent a lot of time on mine this year.

So it wasn’t the Wuhan lab after all...the FRNs and the Lionel cabal was behind all this.
And here I thought the molds were all lost in that train derailment.

[21st Century Schizoid Man]

Should we (God forbid) push past the 3,650 mark in one day, I suppose the Civil War Battle of Antietam will become the old measuring stick for the most Americans who perished on a single day.

I think you’ll need to qualify that with a cause. Something like 7,700 Americans die every day.

But with an extra few thousand a day, you might have already broken the record. I haven’t found daily data.

As for Spanish flu, the population of the US in 1918 was less than a third of what it is now.

[grant hutchison]

I know this isn't much comfort, but there are actually a number of other countries that have had more deaths from COVID-19, if you look by capita. They are all much smaller than the US, so the absolute figures don't stand out as much. But Belgium has had 1,400 deaths per million population, compared to about 850 in the US.

Yes, the UK's cumulative death rate per capita has been consistently greater than that in the USA, since all this began. The USA almost caught up during the summer, when disease incidence was low in the UK, but the UK is pulling ahead again.
It's a largely unhelpful comparison statistic, however--there are differences in how Covid is diagnosed, which vary from country to country and over time, differences in how Covid deaths are recorded, differences in demographics, differences in how the disease is distributed relative to health-care resources, and undoubtedly a large tranche of undiagnosed Covid deaths and non-Covid deaths occurring as a result of Covid.

Grant Hutchison

[Gillianren]

My best friend got tested yesterday. Now, we wait.

[The Backroad Astronomer]

For months you could travel between Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, PEI and Newfoundland, but now if you come into New Brunswick from any where you have to self isolate for 14 days, which means my niece won't be able to come home for the holidays.

[Spacedude]

I know this isn't much comfort, but there are actually a number of other countries that have had more deaths from COVID-19, if you look by capita. They are all much smaller than the US, so the absolute figures don't stand out as much. But Belgium has had 1,400 deaths per million population, compared to about 850 in the US.

Nope, not much comfort for sure Jens, I feel for the entire planet. There was a heart specialist on the tube the other day saying that when he became a doctor his goal was to make deaths from heart disease drop from it's spot as the #1 killer, but he didn't want his goal to be accomplished by covid over taking that spot.

[Van Rijn]

Interesting article about things learned in working on the pandemic, engineering vaccines with the new approaches and things leaned from prior study of coronaviruses, an interview with (quoting) “John Mascola, director of the Vaccine Research Center at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases”:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020...he-new-normal/

and some ideas about getting ready for potential future viral pandemics. Quoting from the article:


“There’s a reasonable possibility that a virus could emerge from a different virus family, and we would not be as prepared. We know that there are about 20 major virus families in the world that infect humans, and almost every outbreak we’ve seen in the past 50 years or more has come from one of those 20 virus families. What if we made a concerted effort to study every family in detail, to make vaccines to every family, and do what we did for coronavirus? Make some prototypes. So that if a cousin in that family emerges, a virus we’ve never seen before, we at least have laid some groundwork for vaccine design. One could do that for what used to be considered a lot of money, but what now would be considered a small investment compared to what happens when you have a pandemic.”

This has demonstrated that mRNA vaccines can work, but it also has demonstrated that modern approaches to studying viruses, modeling molecules and engineering vaccines can work very well. This may be another case where a tragedy is helping push us towards another leap in medical capability.

[Jens]

Just an interesting observation: during the summer, wearing a mask was a hassle, and I tried to take it off whenever I could (when other people weren't around, so walking around outside for example). But now in the winter, it kind of feels nice to have one!

[PetersCreek]

Just an interesting observation: during the summer, wearing a mask was a hassle, and I tried to take it off whenever I could (when other people weren't around, so walking around outside for example). But now in the winter, it kind of feels nice to have one!

But only to a point, I think. The Wife and I went to a downtown Christmas market after she got off work. The temperature was 2°F and after a short time, her mask froze due to the condensation. Mine wouldn't have been far behind had we stayed but we left so she could take hers off.

[The Backroad Astronomer]

I can't get the knack of wearing a mask and my glasses, my glasses always get foggy, I don't have to wear mask on a daily basis. During the auctions my glasses a usually hanging form my shirt and they came off and landed on the floor. Bring on the virus, heck it might even change me into a normal person. (The last part i a joke, there is nothing on the planet that can make me normal.)

[Trebuchet]

I've been tracking Worldometer since the beginning. Current 7-day averages for the USA are 2237 daily deaths and 198,502 daily new cases. This is not looking good.

[The Backroad Astronomer]

The total number cases in Canada is what the USA gets in day in the last two weeks.

[grant hutchison]

I can't get the knack of wearing a mask and my glasses, my glasses always get foggy ...

You need to shape the malleable metal strip across the bridge of your nose (if your mask doesn't have one, they're easy enough to find these days). Really pinch it to the shape of your nose and cheekbones. The idea is to make sure that your breath follows the low-resistance pathways to the sides and down. I wore a surgical mask with glasses for a decade or so, and never had a problem with fogging once I got the hang of that.

Grant Hutchison

[Extravoice]

You need to shape the malleable metal strip across the bridge of your nose (if your mask doesn't have one, they're easy enough to find these days). Really pinch it to the shape of your nose and cheekbones. The idea is to make sure that your breath follows the low-resistance pathways to the sides and down. I wore a surgical mask with glasses for a decade or so, and never had a problem with fogging once I got the hang of that.

Grant Hutchison

My wife sews a piece of bailing wire into the cloth masks she makes. Adding it made a dramatic reduction in fogging.

[Chuck]

I stopped wearing my glasses while bicycling to work on cold mornings. I slowed down a lot and changed my route so that I cross all major streets at traffic lights.