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Thread: Pentagon UFO Report

  1. #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by cosmocrazy View Post
    Maybe I'm just trying to argue semantics and getting in a muddle, but I really can't get my head around why something can be dismissed over something else about something unknown in the first place. If a UAP remains a UAP then all bets are on, don't you think?
    No. I think some bets have to be assigned zero probability, judged on the available evidence. I can't see why I should entertain those at all. So I should act is if those options simply don't exist. That is, I dismiss them, by most usages of the word dismiss. That doesn't mean I won't rexamine these bets if applicable evidence is presented in the future, any more than when my headmaster told me I was "dismissed" at the end of an interview it implied that he expected never to see me again.

    What you appear to be arguing is that no evidence-free option can ever be ignored. At which point the hypothesis landscape fills up with garbage, and science goes out the window.

    Grant Hutchison

  2. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    What you appear to be arguing is that no evidence-free option can ever be ignored. At which point the hypothesis landscape fills up with garbage, and science goes out the window.
    Cosomocrazy, that's also how I interpret your meaning of dismissal. You seem to imply you can consider anything possible that hasn't been explicitly shown to be impossible. But science can't prove a negative. It can only rule out things as inconsistent with observational data.

    There's no way to prove that all UFO/UAP/UTI are NOT aliens. Nevertheless I have to weigh the available information and allot my mental resources accordingly. That's not the same as your extreme definition of dismissing an idea. My version is more like provisional dismissal.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  3. #123
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    Quote Originally Posted by cosmocrazy View Post
    ... we have evidence already that there is highly likely to be Earth like planets in almost every solar system?
    There is an ambiguity in the category 'Earth like', however. Astronomers who state that there are Earth-like planets in abundance seem to include both Mars and Venus in the category 'Earth-like. Whereas one has practically no water and a 700 Kelvin surface temperature, and the other has practically no atmosphere and a 210 Kelvin surface. Earth-like planets seem to include tidally-looked worlds blasted by radiation, ocean worlds with no rocky surface at all, worlds with up to 90 degrees of tilt, worlds with stagnant-lid plate tectonics and no carbon cycle, dried out worlds covered in sand or salt, superterrestrials with high gravity and dense atmospheres of hydrogen and helium - none of which would resemble Earth any more closely than Venus or Mars do.

    Earth-like seems to mean something very different to a lot of astronomers, and we can't rely on the existence of worlds bearing complex life just by finding a few terrestrial-type worlds in the data.

  4. #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    No. I think some bets have to be assigned zero probability, judged on the available evidence. I can't see why I should entertain those at all. So I should act is if those options simply don't exist. That is, I dismiss them, by most usages of the word dismiss. That doesn't mean I won't rexamine these bets if applicable evidence is presented in the future, any more than when my headmaster told me I was "dismissed" at the end of an interview it implied that he expected never to see me again.

    What you appear to be arguing is that no evidence-free option can ever be ignored. At which point the hypothesis landscape fills up with garbage, and science goes out the window.

    Grant Hutchison
    I don't disagree with you, why waste time and resource on something that there is absolutely no evidence for. I think it's really about the way I interpret dismiss in this context.

    In these sightings the available evidence points towards a UAP, there are multiple eye witness's, video and radar recordings that appear to show a UFO. It could turn out to be a glitch, a weather phenomena etc... any number of things. It also could be a "flying object" a bird, drone, balloon etc... it could also be a flying object that did not originate from Earth.

    The evidence presented so far points towards an unidentified flying object, so as extremely unlikely or absurd as it may seem, it is possible that its an object/s that did not originate from Earth.

    Again, this is not my personal opinion because I don't believe we have been visited by E.T, but to me, as extremely unlikely as it might seem (and I don't like the idea) the odds are not zero, so why dismiss the possibility?

  5. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by cosmocrazy View Post
    Again, this is not my personal opinion because I don't believe we have been visited by E.T, but to me, as extremely unlikely as it might seem (and I don't like the idea) the odds are not zero, so why dismiss the possibility?
    We're going round in circles. In the absence of evidence, what justification do you have for claiming the odds are not zero? How is the ETH distinguished from the infinite number of other bizarre scenarios which are also unsupported by evidence?

    Grant Hutchison

  6. #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by cosmocrazy View Post
    I think it's really about the way I interpret dismiss in this context.
    Yeah, I've already told you that's not what I was saying. Adjust your settings accordingly.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  7. #127
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    Iím not really sure about this thread. Is everybody just trying to explain their own position, or are people trying to discipline others into modifying their positions? I personally donít really have a problem with people taking a different position from mine, but find it annoying when they say I am somehow unreasonable for having that position.
    As above, so below

  8. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I’m not really sure about this thread. Is everybody just trying to explain their own position, or are people trying to discipline others into modifying their positions? I personally don’t really have a problem with people taking a different position from mine, but find it annoying when they say I am somehow unreasonable for having that position.
    What do you mean by "discipline others"? Trying to convince is not trying to discipline.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  9. #129
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    Do I believe the chances of alien visitation are non-zero? Yes. Do I believe they're high enough to bother taking seriously as an explanation? No.
    _____________________________________________
    Gillian

    "Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

    "You can't erase icing."

    "I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

  10. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I’m not really sure about this thread. Is everybody just trying to explain their own position, or are people trying to discipline others into modifying their positions? I personally don’t really have a problem with people taking a different position from mine, but find it annoying when they say I am somehow unreasonable for having that position.
    My view was called "arrogant or short sighted" by cosmocrazy. Which comes across as trying to discipline.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  11. #131
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I’m not really sure about this thread. Is everybody just trying to explain their own position, or are people trying to discipline others into modifying their positions?
    Neither of the above, for me. I can't see that I can state my own position any more clearly and, like you, I don't particularly care if people disagree with me on this topic. I'm just trying to understand cosmocrazy's position--specifically, why he feels the ETH needs to be given special treatment out of the whole landscape of "zero-evidence hypotheses".

    Grant Hutchison

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